Cody Bellinger Isn’t Worth $200 Million

Cody Bellinger has been having a nice season. Before the season began, he was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers, effectively making him a free agent. The Chicago Cubs signed him to a one-year deal and Bellinger has proven that he still can be a good player in this league. A tweet from MLB writer Bob Nightengale said that Bellinger could command a contract of $200-$300 million. However, Bellinger is not worth $200 million.

The First Three Seasons Were Fantastic

From 2017-2020, it could be easily argued that Bellinger was going to command $200-$300 million upon reaching free agency. During that span, he won NL Rookie of the Year, an MVP, a silver slugger, a gold glove, a World Series ring, and Bellinger appeared in two all-star games. He also bashed 111 home runs in his first three years in the league. However, after the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Bellinger’s career fell off.

Two Down Years And One Bounce Back This Season

Bellinger suffered various injuries that partially led to a steep statistical decline. He would put up on-base slugging percentages of .542 and .654 and just 41 home runs the next two seasons. The Dodgers would non-tender him after the 2022 season making him a free agent for the first time. In December, the Cubs signed Bellinger to a modest one-year $17.5 million deal with a mutual option for 2024. This season, the Cubs got more than they bargained for with Cody Bellinger.

This season Cody Bellinger has looked like his old self. He’s currently slashing .320/.364/.552 with an OPS of .916. Bellinger has also hit 24 home runs. However, I believe Bellinger’s market is more in the $150-$180 million range. Unfortunately, Bellinger’s agent is the notorious Scott Boras. Boras is going to try to convince prospective teams that Bellinger is back to MVP form and get them to overpay. While Bellinger is having a nice comeback season, a team shouldn’t break the bank and offer him $200 million.

One Good Season Isn’t A Trend Setter

One bounce-back season isn’t indicative of how Cody Bellinger will perform going forward. After all, Cody Bellinger had two of the worst years of his career in 2021 and 2022. When those two down seasons occurred, he was just two and three years removed from winning the NL MVP. Heck, the injury problem hasn’t gone away as he was forced to miss a month early in the season with a knee injury. Given that injuries have kept him out for long periods of time the past three seasons, a general manager should be hesitant to even think about giving him a $200 million contract.

A Team Would Be Crazy To Give Him $200 Million

Cody Bellinger is in line for a bigger contract this offseason. This season, he’s proven he can still be a good player in this league. However, his injury history is concerning, and teams shouldn’t lose sight of that in negotiations. For the past three years, Bellinger has been forced to miss significant amounts of time due to various injuries. A team that is willing to give Cody Bellinger a $200 million contract is going to regret it.

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