There is only one month until the NASCAR Playoffs come to an end. The NASCAR Cup Series Championship race in Phoenix is left to just eight drivers now, fighting for a spot in the final race of the year. This week, the drivers take on Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the South Point 400. The margin for error is getting thin, and the drivers remain have to be razor sharp. Let’s dive right into this race, what’s at stake, and who’s fighting for their shot at the Championship Four.
#12 Ryan Blaney (-10)
Embed from Getty ImagesBlaney got here by winning big at Talladega in the Round of 12. He pushed himself to the Round of 8 last year too, but big mistakes at Las Vegas and Homestead made his third-place finish at Martinsville irrelevant. The Penske driver will aim to correct those mistakes and build upon the momentum he’s built off of the win at Talladega. He finished P13 in the spring at Vegas, I have a feeling he’ll have his sights aimed higher. In 14 races at the track, Blaney has five top-five finishes, all in fifth place. We’ll see how he does at the 1.5-mile course this go around.
#45 Tyler Reddick (-8)
Embed from Getty ImagesReddick was a driver who had to play the points game to get himself to this point, winning at Kansas in the round of 12 has been his only win of the playoffs. Matter of fact, that and Darlington were his only top-five finishes. He’ll have no more road courses to rely upon from here on out. In the spring, the #45 car finished P15, gaining 22 points and leading three laps. In seven career races at Vegas, he’s failed to finish inside the top five at all. He’ll want to get more out of his time in the city of sin as the next two tracks (Homestead and Martinsville) haven’t been kind to him either.
#20 Christopher Bell (-8)
Embed from Getty ImagesChristopher Bell managed to put himself in the Championship Four race last year in the NASCAR Playoffs. A win at Martinsville sent him to Phoenix without a sweat. Las Vegas was a bad race for him though. He finished 34th with a wrecked vehicle after gaining 10 stage points. He returned to the track with a vengeance and got a top-five here in the spring. Bell has been a good driver all year long but hasn’t gotten a win since his lone one at Bristol Dirt back on Easter weekend. This year’s spring race at Vegas represents Bell’s lone top-five finish, with two others in the top 10 in seven career races.
#17 Chris Buescher (-3)
Embed from Getty ImagesBuescher has cooled down a bit since his push of winning three races to close the regular season. By no means has the #17 car been bad though. He’s made it this far and is the first car outside the bubble as it stands today. In the NASCAR Playoffs, Buescher has three top-five finishes and a top-10 making him a strong car for this round. At Las Vegas particularly, he hasn’t been good. In 13 races Buescher has just one top 10. Finishing 21st here in the spring. Buescher will likely need a win to pass up Larson, Hamlin, Truex, or Byron. And neither Homestead nor Martinsville look any more opportunistic.
#5 Kyle Larson (+3)
Embed from Getty ImagesIf it wasn’t for the early craziness of Larson’s season, he probably wouldn’t be the fourth car in the top four. But nothing is ever perfect in NASCAR, you work with what you have. And Larson is one of the best, if not the best, the sport has to offer today. The 2021 Champion entered the NASCAR Playoffs a strong candidate to not only make the Championship Four but win the whole thing again. He’s made the most of his car this post-season. Larson’s collected a win at Darlington, P2 at Bristol and P4 at Kansas.
Larson had a slower Round of 12. Wrecking at Texas late didn’t help. In spite of this, he did just enough at Talladega and Charlotte to find himself here. At Vegas, the #5 car has been excellent. He was runner-up in the spring race alongside a win and four other top-five finishes in 14 races. He’ll likely be running at the front here, as per usual for Larson.
#11 Denny Hamlin (+11)
Embed from Getty ImagesHamlin locked himself for this position about halfway through the Charlotte Roval over the weekend. Hamlin is always a dangerous contender this late in the NASCAR Playoffs. He takes care of his car, runs what he’s supposed to, and generally winds up in a position to win nine times out of ten. Unfortunately for him, he just hasn’t found the formula for winning a championship. That could all change in 2023 though. With the race at hand, Hamlin finished 11th at Las Vegas in the spring. Over the course of his career, the #11 driver has a win and five other top fives in 24 career races. Including finishing P5 last year in the playoffs. Love him or hate him, Hamlin is going to be a car to watch through this round and we’ll more than likely see him with a chance to win at Phoenix.
#19 Martin Truex Jr (+15)
Embed from Getty ImagesMartin Truex Jr won the regular season championship for 2023, and it comes as no surprise that we’ve found himself within the Championship Four as it stands today. It didn’t come without some close calls though. He narrowly avoided elimination in the round of 12 and had Kyle Busch won at the Roval, he wouldn’t be here. Luckily, none of that came to fruition and the #19 is back at it for another round.
Truex hasn’t finished in the top 15 through the entirety of the NASCAR playoffs and will need to turn that around over the next three races if he is to race for the championship at Phoenix. At Las Vegas, the veteran finished P7 in the spring. And in 23 career races, he has two wins and five top-five finishes. It’ll be interesting to follow Truex and see if he can turn this ship in the right direction before it truly costs him.
#24 William Byron (+20)
Embed from Getty ImagesWilliam Byron always seems to find a way near the front at the end of races. He’s posted six wins, the most in NASCAR this year, and seven other finishes in the top five. Pictured above, is his win at Las Vegas back in the spring. The first of many that was going to come in 2023. Many have said this could be the #24’s year. It’s hard to dispute with the show he’s put on this year. His lowest finish in the NASCAR Playoffs this year is P15 at Kansas. Everything else is inside the top 10. Truly an impressive run and so long as nothing absurd happens to him, he’ll likely be a favorite to win it in Phoenix next month.
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