Going into the season, there was cautious optimism surrounding the Cincinnati Reds. They were coming off a 2023 season where they went 82-80 and finished in third in the NL Central. They also only finished two games behind the Diamondbacks for the final wild-card spot. The Reds had developed a core of young exciting players. Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, and Graham Ashcraft headlined this Reds roster. With the NL Central wide-open, the Reds were seen as a dark horse.
However, almost halfway through the season, the Reds are 35-39. They’re dead last in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers for first place. They’re also a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot. Sure, that seems close. However, there are six teams ahead of them. Despite how bad things look on paper, it would be a mistake for the Reds to punt on the season. Instead, they should go all in and buy at the trade deadline.
Why The Reds Should Go All In
Although the Reds are under .500, that’s more indicative of the Reds having bad luck. They have an expected record of 38-36. That would put them in second place in the NL Central. It would also put them a half-game behind the Padres for the final wild-card spot. With their expected record having three more wins than their actual one, it suggests they’re getting unlucky. This point is reinforced when you see they’re the only other team besides the Brewers with a positive run differential. This means they’re doing enough to win the game; they’re just getting unlucky.
They’ve also gotten past the hard part of their schedule. The Reds have the fourth easiest remaining schedule. This includes eleven games against the two worst teams in the National League in the Rockies and Marlins. Also, they have a three-game series against the Oakland A’s, the team with the second-worst record in the American League. Now, sure, there are no guarantees in baseball. However, the Reds have 14 easy wins on the table. That would help them jump all the teams ahead of them.
Who Should They Target
Where the Reds need the most help is their pitching both in their rotation and their bullpen. Their pitching hasn’t been bad. They just have a lot of inexperience in their rotation, with young guys who aren’t guaranteed to make it through a 162-game season, plus a potential postseason. They need a veteran mid-rotation guy who is gonna eat innings and feel comfortable going all season. A guy like Erick Fedde comes to mind.
When it comes to the bullpen, the Reds can be more aggressive. They have the 10th-best bullpen ERA at 3.80. Not a bad number, but could be improved. Especially if the Reds see themselves in a pennant race. The number one guy who is projected to be on the market is Mason Miller. Miller has pitched to an ERA of 2.14 through 33.2 innings. He also still has five years of team control. It might take a lot to get him. However, he would become a major piece of your core. If the Reds don’t want to make that kind of commitment, they could pivot to a guy like Jalen Beeks or Ryan Pressly.
Thanks for reading! Credit for my feature image goes to Justin K. Aller. You can find more MLB content at Belly Up Sports and follow me on Twitter/X.
