2024 Pocono Raceway BellyUp Racing Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series is headed to Pocono Raceway for the Great American Getaway 400! The tricky triangle is a unique track. Large enough to be a superspeedway, but not quite considered one with its sharp turns at the three corners. It also has absurdly long straightaways. It’s a challenging course that has earned its nickname the “Tricky Triangle”. Recent winners include the likes of Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and last week’s winner in Chicago, Alex Bowman.

As usual, Chris and I are here to deliver you who we think are the best names for the race this weekend. Whether it be for your fantasy lineups, your pool picks, or if you’re throwing cash around. At the end of the day, NASCAR is a guessing game. But we do our best to use our brains to make you money. So without further adieu, let’s get to our picks for this weekend’s race at Pocono Raceway!

Chris’s Picks: #1 Ross Chastain (+2200) & #6 Brad Keselowski (+1600)

If you look a little deeper. This pick still doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Ross in his two trips with Trackhouse too Pocono hasn’t finished better then thirteenth. However if I’m not mistaken the first trip is where he had one of his run-in’s with Denny Hamlin. Before the run in his car looked pretty quick if I recall correctly. He even led sixteen laps. A motivated driver, like Ross can be a dangerous thing for everyone else. Ross needs a win right now to lock himself into the playoffs, and Pocono is the exact type of race usually where a fuel mileage gamble could pay off. Or a very late race aggressive restart even makes the difference. I wouldn’t put the rent payment on Ross this week but If you’ve got a few dollars to spare it could very well pay off big.

Well, Brad looked okay late at Chicago. He would’ve most likely got away with a top fifteen finish had he not got turned on the last lap causing him to drop seven positions. He’s riding a little bit of a streak of bad finishes right now. Five race streak and tenth is as high as he’s finished. So, let’s get to a track that Brad knows he can run consistently on. He hasn’t finished outside the top twenty in the last eight races on the “Tricky Triangle”. If that isn’t enough for you how about this stat line. In twenty six career starts at Pocono, Brad has only finished outside the top twenty four times. At +1600 I like the odds for Brad to rebound this weekend and even make some of us some money possibly.

Kaleb’s Picks: #48 Alex Bowman (+3000) & #54 Ty Gibbs (+1400)

No, I’m not using last week as an excuse to gas up Alex Bowman. Are you crazy? Anyways, even if I was, Bowman at +3000 is a more than worthy bet. Being a past winner certainly helps his case, but Pocono is a good track for him typically. His lowest finish since 2020 was P24 last year while dealing with that notorious back injury. But he collected P5 in stage two and was right in the thick of the front pack before losing control at the end of the race. His 2021 win at Pocono did come with controversy, typical of a 48 win, but you gotta be upfront to take advantage. I like Bowman’s odds here for a quick bet, and you could probably throw down some cash on some decent odds for a top-five finish. Love the odds here on this driver-track combination.

As for Ty Gibbs, he got his groove back at Chicago. He was running at the front of the pack in both races last weekend and seems ready to go on a tear. Pocono last year was an impressive finish. He took home P5 leading four laps and scoring P7 in stage two. On top of that, Toyota seems to have this place figured out, and Gibbs is on the best Toyota team in the business. In 2023, it was a 1-2-3 finish for the manufacturer with Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Martin Truex Jr. In 2022, it was a 1-2-5 finish before Hamlin and Kyle Busch got busted in a post-race inspection violation. I think Gibbs is in a good spot here with half-decent odds and is worth a shout at the tricky triangle.

Chris’s Fade: #24 William Byron (+850)

Alright, I hear you, Kaleb. Challenge accepted. I was going to beat up on Bubba Wallace a bit but his odds are bad enough (+3500) that Vegas already did that for me. Even though his finishing average at the “Tricky Triangle” is pretty good in the last four races.

So, we’ll pivot to a driver with way better odds. In the last four trips to Pocono, William Byron hasn’t graced the top ten finish-wise since the first of the double-header weekend pulled back in June of 2021. Even with having enough speed in the car in 2022 to grab the pole award. At +850 those odds aren’t going to win you a ton of money even if you do bet on him. Plus it’s been a roller coaster ride of finishes for William since his last win back at Martinsville. He’s only finishing in the top ten around 50% of the time. So why not roll the dice a little more and go with one of those guys above instead this week and turn pizza money into rent money even.

Kaleb’s Fade: #12 Ryan Blaney (+1500)

I feel weird about this fade. When you look at the finishes for Blaney at Pocono in the last two races, they’re bad. Not one above 30th. But in 2022 he suffered an accident and collected P4 and P2 in the stages. In 2023, he scored P8 in the second stage before finishing P30. This is a track where he’s more “unlucky” than bad. And as Chris has probably mentioned a few times throughout this piece, or in his power rankings, Lady Luck rules all. She’s either on your side or it’s a rough one for you.

If Blaney’s odds were at +2000 or higher I’d almost take it and risk it. But the odds don’t justify the trend, and Ford generally hasn’t been great on these intermediate tracks. The lone one was Chris Buescher at Kansas back in May. Blaney is always one to get the most out of a day, but the 2023 Cup Series Champion seems to be snakebitten at Pocono.

If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!