Could The Reds Miss Their Window?

The Cincinnati Reds found themselves playing meaningful baseball in the second half of last season. They even spent time at the top of the National League Central division. People were proclaiming that this would be the rebirth of the Reds this season. However, the team has been a big buzzkill in 2024. Injuries, suspensions, and underperformance have been the story of the Reds season. Postseason baseball won’t be seen in the Queen City for the 11^th year in a row excluding the COVID season. Given owner Bob Castellini’s reluctance to spend, it is possible that Cincinnati could miss their contention window.

High Hopes After A Promising Finish In 2023

The 2023 season felt like the team was finally turning the corner. Rookies Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, Spencer Steer, Andrew Abbott, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, and Brandon Williamson were all called up. They all showed tremendous promise and helped the Reds go 82-80, a massive 20-game improvement from the season before. At one point during that season, Cincinnati won 12 games in a row and spent 67 days in first place. The Reds also only missed the postseason by two games. With a promising young core, optimism was very high entering the offseason and heading into the following season. Many believed that the Cincinnati Reds were back.

Injuries And Suspension Hurt The Reds Badly This Year

Cold water was immediately splashed when Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games for PED usage. Injuries also put even more of a damper on the season. Key players Matt McClain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft, TJ Friedl, Nick Lodolo, and Brandon Williamson spent significant time on the injured list. Encarnacion-Strand is out for the rest of the season and McClain has yet to play in a game. There is no timetable for Brandon Williamson and Graham Ashcraft to return.

The Offense Was Underwhelming

Despite still having Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, and Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati’s offense has been mediocre. The Reds only average 4.45 runs per game and have put up a total team OPS of .701. Cincinnati has also struck out 1,082 times this season, which is fourth most in the National League. The only teams that have struck out more are the Rockies, Pirates, and Braves. Since returning from suspension, Noelvi Marte only has an OPS of .517. Free agent signing Jeimer Candelario has been somewhat underwhelming as well.  

Starting Pitching Was The Reds Achilles Heel

Partially due to injuries, the Reds pitching staff has been a big disaster in 2024. The team has had almost no stability in the starting rotation due to injuries. The Reds starting rotation has combined to have an ERA of 4.35. The only National League teams that have given up more earned runs are the Mets, Nationals, Marlins, and Rockies. Young starter Carson Spiers has struggled badly. Before being traded to the Brewers, free agent signee Frankie Montas was a disappointment. Starters Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott have been the lone bright spots in the rotation this year.

The Reds Need To Capture Their Window Next Season

The Reds are going to have to play with more urgency next season. This was supposed to be the year they took the next step. Instead, the team took a step backward. Injuries, suspensions, and general underperformance were big reasons the Reds struggled this season. Given how the Castellini’s run the team, the Reds core won’t be together long-term. The team needs to take advantage of this window. Otherwise, it’ll be another long rebuild ahead.

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