Xfinity 500 2024 BellyUp Racing Picks

We are just one race away from the NASCAR Cup Series Championship, folks. The Xfinity 500 in Martinsville, Virginia serves as the final race of the round of eight. Only two drivers will advance beyond this round to fight for the driver’s championship in the desert after Sunday. The paperclip is a unique track, that delivers great fall races in all three series of NASCAR. There is intense racing from the Truck Series up to the pros in the Cup.

As usual, Chris and I are here to give you what we think are solid bets for this weekend’s action in NASCAR. Two drivers we think will be fighting for a win, and two others you might want to stay away from. So without further adieu, let’s get right to it. Here are your picks for the Xfinity 500 at the Paperclip, Martinsville Speedway!

Chris’s Picks: #9 Chase Elliott (+650) & #14 Chase Briscoe (+2500)

The odds makers probably saw what I did last week. A motivated driver with nothing to lose at this point. It’s all in for the win one more week if he wants a chance to compete for the championship next week at Phoenix. Oh, which he has done once before back in 2020 before going on to win his championship. Maybe selfishly this week too as a member of Elliott Nation is why I made this choice but lay your money on Chase and feel comfortable at the very least. 

Yes, it’s the Chase line of picks for me this weekend. However, while the playoffs started strong for Briscoe it fell apart quickly. There is a little bright spot headed into Martinsville. He has the tenth-best finishing average in the last seven races at Martinville. Plus SHR has been strong on the short tracks in their final season. Why not roll with an underdog in an odds since this weekend when the team and driver have been strong in recent history? 

Kaleb’s Picks: #20 Christopher Bell (+1100) & #23 Bubba Wallace (+2300)

Christopher Bell is +29 above the cutline, you might look at this and say “he’s the most likely to make it on points, he won’t fight for the win!”. But I humbly disagree, it won’t take much out of a guy like Denny Hamlin (-18) and Kyle Larson (-5) to erase that point lead with some great stage finishes. I think Bell needs to be just as on edge and competitive as everybody else until we know what’s what halfway through stage three on Sunday. He’s a top-end car on these short tracks, winning at Loudon in the summer, Phoenix in the spring, and a 2022 win here at Martinsville. If he can stay out of trouble, he’s been a fast car all playoff. I like his odds to win, and they’re more than worth an educated guess that Larson or Hamlin will put pressure on his points lead through the race.

As far as Bubba Wallace, he’s been quietly awesome here at the paperclip. a 12.7 average finish with a top ten finish in three of the last four races, netting his first top five in the spring race. I’m not sure if he’ll be competing for the win at the end, but these odds more than justify a look with a top-five finish being at +360, and a top three at +800.

Chris’s Fade: #45 Tyler Reddick (+2200)

So I have two basic reasons for staying away from Tyler this weekend. Much like my friend below, who chose to stay away from Logano, Tyler drove his tail off last week and locked himself into the championship four. He could help his boss get in any way possible but we’ll see. The other reason may be even more important, he is not good at Martinsville. He has two top-ten finishes in nine career starts on the paperclip. Other drivers have better chances than Tyler so throw your money on them and reap the rewards instead. 

Kaleb’s Fade: #22 Joey Logano (+1300)

Take the easy layups when you can get them, ladies and gentlemen. All Joey Logano is going to do is get the hell out of the way, and maybe help teammate Ryan Blaney when he can. He won’t push the envelope for anything this weekend at the Xfinity 500. He’s been focused on Phoenix for almost two weeks after winning in Las Vegas. Don’t be tempted by the +1300 number of a great car like Logano. He’s only going to be getting out of the way.

If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports offers here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!