TJ Dillashaw vs. Henry Cejudo fight preview

I have hesitated to begin writing this article until now because personally I was unsure that TJ Dillashaw was going to make weight. TJ has made weight with ease, coming in at 124.6 pounds, so the fight for the flyweight title is on. This fight between Dillashaw and Cejudo will be the first ever main event in the ESPN era. There is a lot of hype, and more importantly a lot of questions surrounding this “super-fight.” Will all of TJ’s attributes translate from 135 to 125? Can Cejudo get the fight to the ground and control Dillashaw? Can Cejudo take a punch from a bantamweight?

Let’s take a look at all of these questions, as well as all of the intangibles that will be in play when the two men square up in the octagon tomorrow night.

Tale of the tape

TJ Dillashaw will be coming in the fight with a 3″ reach advantage to go with his 2″ height advantage. Granted this isn’t the biggest deal in the world, the advantage is nothing major, but you never know when those extra inches will come in handy.

We will get much deeper into the statistics as we go along, but for now, the main stats you’ll see as the men step into the octagon favor Dillashaw.

On the feet

When the fight is on the feet, there is zero question that the fight will be in favor of Dillashaw. Let’s look at why that is.

In his UFC career, Dillashaw has landed 5.38 significant strikes per minute, compared to Cejudo’s 3.42. Dillashaw also throws with amazing volume. In his UFC career he has thrown 13.06 significant strikes per minute, Cejudo again pales in comparison, as he attempts 8.04 per minute. Followers of MMA understand that these stats don’t necessarily do TJ justice.

Watching both of these men compete will really give you an idea on the difference in striking. Tj is polished, quick and clean, in and out, he’s slick and packs a punch that not many other men his size have. Cejudo, tends to rely on the same combinations, which at times are basic and easy to read for other fighters. Cejudo is still an improved striker though, looking at both of his fights against Mighty Mouse, there is clear improvement shown in the little time the fight was standing up.

The thing is, Henry Cejudo doesn’t really need the best striking because of how dominant he can be on the ground, which we will get into. If for whatever reason Henry decides to stand up with Dillashaw for a decent period of time, then there is a chance that he could find himself on dream street rather quickly.

There is a possibility that TJ’s power could dwindle. And if Cejudo tires him out on the ground in the first couple of rounds, he could gain some confidence standing on the feet later in the fight. but as things stand currently based off of what we know, the advantage on the feet has to go to Killashaw.

On the ground

Much like the striking aspect of this fight, the ground game also leans heavily towards one man, this time it is Henry Cejudo. The stats are also there to back this one up.

Getting the obvious out of the way, Henry Cejudo won an Olympic gold medal in freestyle wrestling. Obviously this is his thing, and it is what got him the flyweight title victory over Demetrious Johnson. if not for those three takedowns, Cejudo wouldn’t have came close to gold.

Cejudo lands 2.31 takedowns per fight. This number may not seem like a ton, but it speaks volumes for his control on the ground, often times if he gets you down, you’re staying down.

Getting TJ Dillashaw on the ground could turn out to be a problem for The Messenger however. Dillashaw has stopped 86 percent of takedown attempts in his UFC career. Going back to the last time he lost a fight though, Dominick Cruz landed four takedowns in their bantamweight title fight, and that’s what ended up being the deciding factor in their bout.

Funnily enough, Dillashaw has three submissions, where Cejudo has none. So who knows, maybe TJ can catch Cejudo from his back, that would a wild finish that no one would see coming.

Much like striking for Dillashaw, ground game and the clinch as well shows a clear advantage for Henry Cejudo. If he can get TJ down, it will prove to be an easier night for The Messenger.

Big questions

One big question that has been asked over the last couple of weeks is “Will TJ’s attributes carry over fluently to flyweight?”

You’ve got to think so right? Yes the ten pound difference will seem like a lot, but TJ will have to hit hard as a flyweight. He will obviously be well replenished on Saturday night as well, so you cannot imagine that anything about his game will be too diminished.

Maybe the biggest question of the night will be “Can Cejudo get the fight to the ground?”

Surely there will be a point some time in the midst of the fight where Cejudo will manage to take the fight down to the mat. I would venture to say that Cejudo will look to cement a couple rounds in his favor by doing his best to hold Dillashaw down. Cejudo has never been the best at ground and pound, so it is possible that the referee on the night will not have any of that if Cejudo isn’t working while in the clinch or on the mat.

“Can Henry Cejudo take a punch from a bantamweight?

You’ve got to have faith in the chin of Cejudo, even if it has never been properly tested before. TJ Dillashaw will be the man to test Cejudo’s chin, so we will really find out tomorrow night.

All in all, this is a very interesting fight between a man looking to shock the world for the second fight in a row, and a man looking to become a double champ and most likely putting away a division. It is sure to be very interesting indeed, and I for one am looking forward to seeing how all of these intangibles come into play.

Prediction

I am a big TJ Dillashaw fan, and often times my love for a fighter will get in the way of me properly breaking down a fight and picking a winner.

I’m looking at this fight now with the hindsight of the Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega bout. Holloway was somehow an underdog due to weight cutting and health issues over the past year, and Ortega was pegged as the next big thing in fighting. Holloway reminded us all why he should never be betted against ever again.

Dillashaw is coming down to Cejudo’s weight, and thanks to TJ’s social media presence, we have witnessed his weight cut, and pictures speak louder than words. TJ told us the weight cut was going great, but the man looked frail…. ripped, but frail. But TJ made weight easy on the first try, he even weighed in before Cejudo. People have been quick to point out everything that could go wrong for Dillashaw and how he’s not meant to be down at this weight, but he has silenced everyone without even stepping in the octagon yet.

I’m going with my gut, which also happens to be what my heart says as well. I think TJ will stuff some early takedowns, and provide volume that will overwhelm Cejudo, before eventually finishing The Messenger sometime in the second via strikes.

I’m riding with Killashaw on this one.

Prediction: Dillashaw via 2nd round TKO