On Saturday, February 2nd, inside Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste in Fortaleza, Brazil, Raphael Assuncao, and Marlon “Magic” Moraes will do battle inside the octagon for the 2nd time at UFC Fight Night 144.
This bout is what one might call a “number-one contender match” for the bantamweight championship, at least that’s what was originally thought when the fight was first announced. Assuncao has won 11 of his last 12 fights, and Moraes has won 16 of 17, so it seems like a no-brainer that the winner should fight for the title, right?
Well given the result of Fight Night 143, where Henry Cejudo starched current bantamweight champion, T.J Dillashaw, it seems that those two may run it back at 135 for Dillashaw’s belt. If Dillashaw had won the fight, then there is no doubt that the winner of Assuncao vs. Moraes would challenge T.J for the bantamweight strap at some point in 2019.
Now let’s take a look at the main event of the evening this coming Saturday, as we breakdown Assuncao vs. Moraes.
On the feet
As far as striking goes, there is a tad bit of advantage toward Marlon Moraes.
in the 21 wins of Moraes’ career, 10 of them have come by KO/TKO. If you go back and watch either of Moraes’ last two bouts, you’ll see two of the better knockouts ever in the bantamweight division, via a brutal knee to the mouth of Aljamain Sterling as well as a beautiful head kick to the side of the head of Jimmie Rivera.
Moraes utilizes his speed on the outside as well as his hard-hitting leg kicks. Assuncao meanwhile, only has four KO/TKO finishes out of 27 total wins. Ever since Assuncao has been in the UFC he has been a decision machine. nine out of his 13 UFC bouts has gone to the judges’ scorecards. Assuncao has a bigger build for a 135er so it is surprising that he hasn’t been able to finish more fights.
This should by no means count out Assuncao on the feet. Moraes has been keen on turning out his opponents’ lights the past couple of years, but Assuncao has only been knocked out one time in his career.
On the ground
Like on the feet, there is a tad bit of an advantage towards a Brazilian, but this tie it is Raphael Assuncao.
To put it simply, Assuncao has 10 career submissions. Some guys never get close to that kind of number in a long career. Jose Aldo has been fighting for almost 15 years and he only has one career submission, so 10 is unprecedented. Granted, Assuncao hasn’t actually won via submission since 2013, so it has been a while, but anyone who has done it 10 times, is no one to mess with on the mat.
Moraes has 5 submission victories to his credit, although it’s not a skill he’s been able to show since coming into the UFC. it is safe to say that if someone will be an aggressor to get the fight down to the ground, it will be Assuncao. But this by no means counts out Moraes, these guys are very evenly matched just about everywhere.
What’s changed since the first fight?
Not much. Honestly, the better question to ask is, has anything changed since the last time they fought?
Assuncao was the victor of the first bout, back in June of 2017, via split decision. The first fight was a technical striking battle for 15 minutes. All three rounds could have gone either way, as the scorecards went on to show (29-28 A, 29-28, M, 30-27 A). I personally scored the fight 29-28 for Assuncao.
Assuncao landed the better shots, but when Moraes landed, he landed hard. after a second low blow to Moraes in the 3rd round of their first bought, he seemed to throw sportsmanship out of the window, you could tell he was frustrated with Assuncao.
Cardio also did not seem to be an issue in their first fight. So will the extra 10 minutes tonight play a factor or provide an advantage for either man? It’s tough to say. Both of these guys are in amazing shape, and they both have got some pythons ( shoutout Randy Savage) for arms. I would say that possibly Assuncao would benefit a bit more from the fight going the full five rounds. Moraes loves to throw combinations mixed with beautiful spinning techniques in bulk, it is safe to say that he won’t be able to provide consistency with this style throughout a 25-minute fight, but I wouldn’t expect him to try and do so anyway.
Prediction
This is a tough fight to call. I personally believe that if Assuncao can get the fight to the ground in the earlier rounds then he should succeed enough on the mat to tire out Moraes and possibly even finish him there.
If we are to see a similar bout to their first, then it is hard not to favor Moraes on the feet. He is so creative standing up, and his mix of kicks to the head and body have resulted in some brutal KO’s over his last two fights.
This feels like Moraes’ fight to me for some reason. Assuncao has been at the top of the 135-pound division for what feels like forever but he has never gotten his shot. A win Saturday night would surely change that.
I can picture Moraes finishing Assuncao on the feet, I can picture Assuncao submitting Moraes on the ground, it’s more so a question of what is more likely to me. I could genuinely see any sort of finish/decision happening, there are no defining statistics or moments that stick out to me, favoring one Brazilian over the other.
I’m going with Assuncao. If he can lure Moraes into a false sense of security at the beginning of the rounds while trading with him, he should be able to land a few takedowns and tucker out Moraes. He should by no means force the fight to the mat, because if he isn’t successful early, then it could be a short night for him. He won a stand-up battle with Moraes already, so the confidence to be able to get it done anywhere in the octagon should be there. Wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome tonight, however.
Prediction: Assuncao via decision
