We are just over 3 years removed from one of the most monumental upsets in sports history. It took place on January 2, 2016 at UFC 193 in Melbourne, Australia. The match up featured the 12-0 women’s bantamweight champion, Ronda Rousey vs. 10-0 challenger, Holly Holm. The UFC predicted Rousey to be a heavy favorite and defend her title with relative ease. Holm began the upset charge by tagging Rousey early and often in round one. The upset was complete just 57 seconds into round two. Holm connected with a head kick that dropped the champion to the octagon floor. Referee Herb Dean had no choice but to stop the fight and declare Holly Holm the new women’s bantamweight champion.
After Holm’s triumphant win, the women’s bantamweight title has changed hands twice. In her only title defense, Holm lost the belt to Miesha Tate. Tate won the belt in the 5th round via a rear-naked choke. Tate’s reign as champion was short lived too. In Tate’s title defense, she was bested by Amanda Nunes. Nunes patently waited her turn and when it came time for her to produce, she did not disappoint. Nunes dominated the striking aspect against Tate and ultimately claimed the bantamweight championship, in round one, with a submission victory.
Nunes has dominated the bantamweight division for the last three years. In her 4 title defenses, Nunes has allowed only one of those to go the distance. She beat Ronda Rousey by technical knockout (TKO) and Cris Cyborg by knockout. Both of those bouts were finished in the first round. Nunes defeated Raquel Pennington by TKO in the 5th round. The only lady to take Nunes the distance, in a title fight, is Valentina Shevchenko. This match took place at UFC 215 and Nunes prevailed with a split decision victory.
UFC 239 (Nunes vs Holm) brings us full circle. Nunes is duplicating what we saw out of the first 12 fights from Ronda Rousey. Nunes can attack early and control the pace of the bout. Holly Holm is already accustomed to countering this style of play. Holm did a phenomenal job using her reach and speed to offset Ronda Rousey’s game plan. The longer this fight goes the more it favors Holm. Nunes will look to continue to dominate early and finish within the first minute. On paper, the striking seems to be even. I, however, feel the striking trait favors Holly Holm. If this fight goes to grappling, Nunes has an advantage and better chance of defending her title.
Nunes vs Holm is a tossup and either lady can come out victorious. I do believe the bout will go the distance. If it goes the 5 rounds, I feel Holly Holm will be standing before you as new women’s bantamweight champion. I’m not taking anything away from Nunes’ ability to win in five rounds, she is just so used to ending things early. The longer the fight goes, the more Nunes could see her title leave. UFC 239 comes your way Saturday July 6 exclusively on pay-per view, you can watch through ESPN+ on your TV or mobile device.
