It’s that time of year again in the NASCAR world. The most recent race at Michigan shook up the standings even more. With Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer both having issues, and good runs for Daniel Suarez and Ryan Newman, the point standings have changed even more. With that I’ll look at the next three races and give you who I think will make the NASCAR playoffs after the race in Indianapolis
Kyle Larson 13th Plus 71 to 16th
I believe Kyle Larson will be safe and make the playoffs. With Bristol and Darlington coming up and being two of his best tracks with an average finish of 15th and 7th respectively. And since 2017 that average is 8th and 9th. I believe without any major incidents he will have enough points and maybe even break his winless streak at one of the next two tracks. And while his recent history at Indianapolis hasn’t been as great but his first few starts did produce some top 10s.
Erik Jones 14th plus 70 to 16th
Much like Larson I believe without anything major happening Jones is a lock. Although his average finish at Bristol is only 15th he has had great speed at Bristol and has had circumstances take him out of contention. His spring race was a disaster for the crew and he finished nowhere near where the car was capable of running that day. And amazingly in only 2 starts at Darlington Jones has a really impressive average finish of 7th. Indianapolis hasn’t been as great for him but being in a Gibbs car there is always a shot at good results.
Ryan Newman 15th plus 16 to 16th
Ryan Newman has been right on the NASCAR playoff bubble for most of the season. One of the feel good stories of this season has been the performance of the 6 car with Newman behind the wheel. And with doing some research I found some really surprising things. He has an average finish of 16th at Bristol 12th at Darlington and 16th at Indianapolis. But since 2017 he has an average finish of 10th, 13th and 7th at those tracks. Although he is with a new team Newman has been consistent and I believe that consistency will be enough to get him into the NASCAR playoffs.
Clint Bowyer 16th
Up to this point I have been pretty positive. But somebody must miss out. To say Bowyer’s season has been a disappointment would be an understatement. While Stewart Haas hasn’t been as good throughout the season Bowyer has been the most off of the bunch. Since 2017 his average finish at Bristol is 8th but only an average finish of 17th at Indianapolis and an abysmal average of 38th at Darlington. It is really hard to trust him anywhere at this point of the season. It would be a shock to me if he is not replaced by Cole Custer in this car next year. Anything is possible but I don’t see him making the playoffs.
Daniel Suarez 17th 6 behind 16th
I was ready to write Suarez out of the NASCAR playoff picture with some mediocre runs over the last few months. But after a 5th place run at Michigan and the failure of Clint Bowyer to capitalize on Johnson’s early struggles, Suarez finds himself only 6 points out of the playoffs going into Bristol. Suarez is a hard one to gauge. While it is too early to call him a total bust, he certainly hasn’t lived up to the expectations that were placed on him when he came into the series. This has by far been his best season but he has also not been really consistent. The next three tracks haven’t been really great for him but in this new car it has been to judge where his performance will be coming back to these tracks again.
But all that said, I think he will make the playoffs. Over the last 6 races he has an average finish of 19th. Bowyer and Johnson have an average of 21st and 22nd respectively. That isn’t that much better but I believe it will be enough to make the difference
Jimmie Johnson 12 behind 16th
And that leaves Johnson. It’s really hard to say it. I really thought he would rebound this year. But it seems like things are getting worse and not better. And you can’t blame the team. Hendrick Motorsports as a whole has been good this last part of the year. Haven’t always gotten the results but the speed has been there. Elliot had a rough patch but seems to have rebounded from that and Byron seems to be inching ever closer to his first win. Bowman has also been solid since winning at Chicagoland. It’s really hard to look at Johnson’s past stats in defense of him making it. His average since 2017 at Bristol is 7th, with a top 10 this spring but Darlington and Indianapolis his average finish is over 20.
Winning a race, I believe, is the only really shot he has to get into the NASCAR playoffs and sadly I just don’t see it happening. There have been small glimmers of hope through the season but I don’t think a win is coming soon. I don’t think he is done. When you’ve performed at such a high level for so long it can’t last forever. I think he can still win before his career is over, but I would be hard pressed to think it will come in the next few weeks.
In Conclusion
So there it is. Who I believe will make it into the NASCAR playoffs. There could easily be a driver outside of the top 16 win a race in the last three races but I don’t believe anyone below the top 18 will be able to do that unless there is some crazy strategy that plays out. And Indianapolis this year is a bit of a wild card with the new package but I don’t think things will be different enough to think an outside winner will bump there way in. But no matter what it should be a fun few races to watch and see what happens.
