Sunday at Martinsville kicked off the penultimate round in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Martin Truex, Jr. captured his 7th win of the season and catapulted his Auto Insurance Owners Toyota into the Championship 4 at Homestead-Miami Speedway in three weeks. Truex was dominant at Martinsville, capturing both stages and leading 464 of the race’s 500 laps. In claiming his third short track triumph of 2019 and third of seven races in the Playoffs, Martin has stamped himself as the favorite at Homestead. Said the #19 driver, “We’re going to Homestead again and that was what we tried to accomplish this weekend.”
A Rivalry Renewed
Truex’s best quote of his post-race interview came as he looked across turns 3 and 4 to pit road. “Oh, look, a fight,” he mused, referring to a fracas involving Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano. Their issue stemmed from contact on lap 459 when Hamlin forced Logano into the wall coming onto the front stretch. Logano subsequently had a flat left rear tire that sent him spinning. He rallied to finish 8th but confronted Hamlin after the checkered flag. After a tense conversation, there was a finger wag by Denny followed by a shoulder slap from Logano. From there the “brawl” was on, resembling more of a high school lunchroom confrontation than a fight. Somewhere Vince McMahon is drawing up contracts.
State of the Playoffs
Six of the eight remaining playoff drivers finished inside the top 10, and no one outside the cut line made their way in. Ryan Blaney used a solid 5th place day that included 16 stage points to be only driver who made up ground to the cut line on Sunday. The margin lies at 15 from Logano to Kevin Harvick in 5th. Of note, Chase Elliott now faces the proverbial must-win situation after rear end trouble left the Hendrick driver more than 50 laps down. Kyle Busch’s lackluster second half of the season continued and he slipped to only three points ahead of Logano. This could become crucial if a driver outside the bubble wins one (or both) of the remaining races in this round.
Predictions Revisited
Martin Truex was dominant at Martinsville. That was not one of my prognostications on what would occur to set up the championship race in Homestead. Here are my hits—and misses.
What I was right about: I said an average of 19 drivers have finished on the lead lap over the last ten races at Martinsville.
19 drivers finished on the lead lap.
I said this race set up for late-race drama that could cause serious damage to a playoff contender’s chances.
Mostly right. Busch was caught up with Aric Almirola on lap 363 and could rally no higher than 14th. Logano got back to 8th and gained ground to both drivers above and below him.
I said Logano’s penchant for making enemies on the track could come back to bite him.
Not yet, but this WILL happen
What I was wrong about:
I said Truex’s pit crew would be his weak link.
The 19 crew was flawless, clicking off sub-13-second stops all day and never coming remotely close to losing their driver a spot on pit road.
I said Gibbs drivers would sweep.
Apart from Truex, Hamlin was good but not great after leading at the start and Busch meandered around the top 10 before his troubles.
I said Kyle Larson had shown the speed at Martinsville and could surprise.
Larson made a great drive on old tires in a first stage shootout to earn vital points. However, he was not a factor and only managed a 9th due to others’ issues.
Revisions for Texas
Although I whiffed on Martin Truex being dominant at Martinsville, I’m going to ride or die with my previous assertions. The aero package will play havoc with the field. Restarts will be similar to Kansas, only on a track with a surface not conducive to that type of racing. This will lead to more crumpled fenders and short tempers. There will be a casualty among the trio of Hamlin, Busch, or Logano. I still predict Kevin Harvick’s victory to atone for last year’s DQ, just like Truex avenged his being a Logano pinata at the conclusion of last year’s Martinsville race.
Follow the Belly Up motorsports crew at https://bellyupsports.com/category/racing/
Give me props or tell me I’m a wackadoo at @dwscrippler
