Three Races to Decide NASCAR’s Final Four

Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 whittled the list of Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship contenders to eight. This weekend begins the three races to decide NASCAR’s final four and see who advances to Homestead-Miami Speedway with a shot at the big trophy. This week the half-mile paperclip at Martinsville takes center stage. Next up is Texas Motor Speedway, followed by a duel in the desert at ISM Raceway in Phoenix. Three distinct tracks with unique challenges that should be a good arbiter of championship-worthy teams. Today we size up the combatants and provide a murky outlook into how the MENCS championship field shakes out.

The Field of Contenders

Busch has looked pedestrian for most of these playoffs. Much has been made of his now 18 race winless streak and he could not find a way around teammate Denny Hamlin at Kansas, settling for 3rd. The regular-season champion hasn’t led a lap outside of the restrictor plate race at Talladega since Richmond. That being said, Kyle has a tremendous record at the Round of 8 tracks, as evidenced by his finishes earlier this season. The concern may arise from the fact, however, that his buffer over the bubble is significantly smaller to begin the round. A win by a driver outside the top four will place increasing pressure on Busch and the other Joe Gibbs drivers.

Perhaps no other driver in these playoffs has been under less stress through the first two rounds than Truex. Aside from his predictable involvement in a Talladega crash, the Bass Pro Shops driver has an impressive 3.4 finishing average over the six playoff races. Like Busch, his margin for error will be smaller in this round. With a pit crew known for untimely errors, Truex could find himself playing from behind for the first time this fall.

Kansas and spring Texas winner Hamlin confidently asserted he “cannot wait to get to Martinsville”. He may deserve to salivate at the next round, having the most success in this season’s earlier treks to this trio of tracks. Hamlin may also need to strike while the iron is hot, having only a 13th and 35th place finishes in the last two Phoenix fall races. Hey, hasn’t it been a while since Denny had a baffling pit road speeding penalty?

Defending champ Logano muddled his way through to the Round of 8 and failed to impress earlier this season. Nevertheless, Joey is last year’s Martinsville winner after his bump-and-run of Truex. In fact, the Shell/Pennzoil driver was in more grave peril in 2018. Joey has proven his aggression when the situation calls for it, and often when it doesn’t. Will his propensity to make enemies on the track come back to bite him at tracks that promote bumping and banging?

It took Happy 20 races to pick up a victory this season, but then he reeled off three in the next seven. Since then Harvick has been the model of consistency, with top 10’s everywhere but Talladega. The once and future king of ISM Raceway was absent from the front in the spring. Will he be the dominant force of year’s past and over the late summer? Can he be content in pointing his way to Homestead? Or will he need to recapture the magic in the desert to reach his 3rd championship race in a row?

The lone Hendrick driver to advance, Elliott was stirring in rallying to victory at the Roval. He was perhaps more impressive in making up enough points to eliminate Brad Keselowski at Kansas. The margin for error is razor-thin at this point. Will Chase continue to thrive under the bright lights or has he maxed out his season against the superior Ford and Toyota teams?

Larson dominated Dover and looked dominant in the early stages at Kansas. None of his competitors wants to see the Ganassi #42 on the grid with a chance for a championship at Homestead. His mastery of the high line at that track are prodigious. But what is his path to advancement? A victory is the surest way. He has shown the speed at all three tracks in the past, but do he and his team possess the championship mettle to set up an all or nothing finale?

Edging out Ryan Newman to win Talladega earned Blaney his second berth in the Round of 8. But can it be considered a fluke? Certainly not based on talent or the resources of Team Penske. Blaney was a force at all three tracks in this round in the spring and has little to no pressure entering this weekend. That attitude could carry him past his more vaunted competitors and into the season-ender. But at who’s expense?

What to Look For in the Next Three Weeks

Martinsville

Brad Keselowski dominated Martinsville in the spring, leading 446 of 500 laps. His teammate Blaney was also strong, but third Penske driver Logano was ho-hum. The short track could prove to be a mini-Talladega in that an average of 19 cars were on the lead lap at the end of the last ten races. This means late-race drama, a certainty at Martinsville, could derail a driver who had been at or near the front most of the day. Being the first race of the round might temper some of the pressure seeing as most of the competitors have more to lose than gain at this point. I still feel as though Truex remembers Logano driving through him to victory last year and if the situation presents, payback may be on the menu. Ultimately, Gibbs’ Toyotas will carry the day, with Busch holding off teammates Hamlin and Truex, separating the top 3 from the bubble.

Texas

Based on my scenario for Martinsville, the 1.5-mile quad-oval might be some drivers’ best chance to win and advance. The 2019 aero package will undoubtedly come into play. Teams have had seven months and six races on similar tracks to adjust. Restarts and long runs will look similar to Kansas, but Texas doesn’t boast the same race able surface. Look for stage beginnings and late-race restarts to be chaotic. Not everyone will survive. I see Kevin Harvick’s victory in the making.

ISM (Phoenix)

With Busch and Harvick having automatically advanced, it will come down to six drivers for two spots. Hamlin and Truex aren’t going to perform poorly enough for someone to get in on points, so one of those drivers will have to win. And I think they will. Elliott continues his clutch performance in cutoff races but ultimately succumbs to a late pass from Larson on the outside. Hamlin edges out Truex for the final spot at Homestead. This leaves Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin to duel in the season finale.

Am I onto something? Or am I just on something? Leave a comment or hit me up on twitter at
@dwscrippler. I’m happy to tell you why you’re wrong and make excuses when my predictions turn out to be rubbish. Also, follow me and the phenomenal motorsports team at Belly Up Sports.