Welcome to the halfway point of the NFL season! Thanks to everyone who has been following along, and I hope you’re all looking forward to Week 8. There are some huge spreads this week, so even the Bengals and Browns have a chance to cover. The big spread games aside, there are some absolute locks for NFL Week 8 game picks and as always games to avoid completely. We’re starting to identify the buyers and sellers of the season, so that has had a pretty big effect on the point spreads this week, and will continue to have an impact for the rest of the year. So, let’s get to it!
Lay the Points, Lock it in
Green Bay (-3.5) @ Kansas City
Ok, I know that Andy Reid hasn’t completely ruled out Patrick Mahomes for Sunday Night. There’s just this little thing called common sense and an entire Kingdom of fans that are repeating the same thing over and over in light of this news. IF ANDY REID PLAYS MAHOMES THIS WEEK HE’S AN IDIOT. Seriously, he was battling an ankle injury and then dislocated his kneecap. The only reasoning for saying this is to make the Packers waste time and prepare for him (which they didn’t, because they have common sense).
This terrible attempt at a Jedi mind trick may not fool Green Bay. But it certainly has pulled the line down to a laughable amount. I understand the game is being played at Arrowhead. But the Chiefs really have no chance at stopping Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a six-touchdown performance. Kansas City would have to run the ball and control the clock, which they have shown no ability to do in order to keep this game close. I’m personally hoping for the “any given Sunday” type of game and a miracle win, but gambling is a head game, not a heart game. Take the Packers here, this is a lock,
Denver @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
I’m not entirely sure how this line is still below a touchdown. The Broncos just got manhandled at home against a terrible Chiefs defense, and just traded away Emmanuel Sanders. They’re clearing waving the white flag on offense, and I’m not certain how they plan to score points. Sure, they can run the ball, but that isn’t going to work if they’re behind. Their offensive line is in absolute shambles heading into Week 8, giving up nine sacks last week.
Joe Flacco is the most immobile human being I’ve seen play the quarterback position in a long time. The Colts have a better pass rush than Kansas City. Jacoby Brissett still has Hilton, Mack, Ebron, and Doyle at his disposal along with a much better offensive line. I can see this game being a blowout early, as the Colts have postseason aspirations still in a crowded AFC playoff race. Indianapolis may win be 14 or more.
Cincinnati @ Los Angeles Rams (-13.5)
The Rams came into the season as a Super Bowl favorite, but they have sputtered out to a 4-3 record as they head into Week 8. They’ve made it apparent that they are willing to fix issues defensively with the Jalen Ramsey trade. But they really need to get a big offensive performance to put the league back on notice. It’s a good thing they get the helpless Bungles this week, who will more than likely offer zero resistance en route to a 24+ point beatdown. In all seriousness, Cincinnati cannot do anything well.
Their defense is beaten up and they’re talking about trading away Geno Atkins, Joe Mixon has been relegated to fantasy football benches everywhere, and for some reason, Andy Dalton is still an NFL quarterback. To make things worse, it’s pretty apparent that A.J. Green no longer even wants to be there. Los Angeles is going to get the statement game they needed, this won’t be pretty.
Take the Points, Make Money
New York Giants (+6.5) @ Detroit
The Lions have pretty much declared they’re done being competitive this season. Kerryon Johnson was sent to the IR, ending his campaign, and the team went out and shipped away Quandre Diggs who was one of (if not their best) cover corners. Now, I understand that the Giants aren’t very good, but they have Saquon Barkley back, and the Lions have no way to stop him. New York isn’t a high-octane offense by any means, but they can control the game and clock with their running attack.
If Matthew Stafford is forced to throw the entire game, it usually doesn’t end up going well. If the Giants are smart, they’ll realize that Marvin Jones isn’t just a distraction and play 7-8 man coverage for the majority of the game. If the Lions can’t get anything going on the ground. The bottom line here is that this game is going to be close throughout, and being spotted a touchdown is going to get New York to cover.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) @ Chicago
I suppose Vegas just doesn’t want us to learn from last week from the Bears performance. Their offense is completely devoid of any explosiveness and point-scoring ability. It’s so bad that even their elite tier defense cannot overcome it. Mitch Trubisky just isn’t an NFL caliber quarterback, and Chicago needs to move on sooner rather than later. In the meantime, they’ll just have to suffer through it.
The Chargers have a massive compliment of weapons they can use to scratch out the requisite 16 or more points needed to beat the Bears and they’re starting up 3.5. Los Angeles needs to win this game in order to keep wildcard hopes alive, and they actually have a quarterback that can lead them to victory. Melvin Gordon has had a slow start, but at least they are using their best running back talent, unlike Chicago who continues to under-utilize David Montgomery. This will be a low scoring game to be sure. But the Chargers should be able to cover.
Cleveland (+13) @ New England
This is probably a hot take for most people. Ok, fine, it’s a hot take period. Here’s my rationale for this (and don’t come whining back to me when it happens and you scoffed at first glance). As bad as the Browns have been this season, New England has only played the absolute worst the NFL has to offer so far. They’ve had one competitive opponent in Buffalo, and they struggled to win that game. Other than that, their combined opponent’s record is a whopping 6-26.
The only counter-argument that I will hear out is that they did what they were supposed to do against terrible opponents, which is blow them out. However, their point production isn’t geared by the offense so much as it is the defense destroying absolutely inept quarterbacks and (Luke Falk/Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen/Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Barkley, Colt McCoy) Daniel Jones. Seriously, Daniel Jones is the toughest opponent they’ve faced minus a torn elbow saddled Roethlisberger. If the Browns and Baker Mayfield can just take care of the football and eliminate silly mistakes (it’s Cleveland so I’m prepared for Cleveland things) they can keep this game respectable.
Games to Avoid
In lieu of bonus, college picks this week (Kansas was so incredibly close to beating Texas this past weekend. I admittedly forgot to look over the slate for bonus games. Sue me, Kansas is back). I thought I’d just put a quick list together on games that I would avoid putting action on. I won’t get into a ton of detail, but I’ll have a good reason or two to avoid them.
- Oakland @ Houston (-7): For some reason, these teams seem to play close games almost every time they meet. There’s no real advantage held by either team this time around, as the Texans are dealing with injuries. The Raiders can run the ball but like to find ways to lose.
- Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): I suppose somebody had to be the favorite going into this one. But it’s basically a pick’em game. Jameis Winston just can’t stop giving the ball away to the defense. I guess Ryan Tannehill is going to have handoff duties this week for the Titans. Anything can happen in this game, and randomness is not something you’re looking for when betting.
- Carolina @ San Francisco (-5.5): I really think the line stinks in this game. It’s much too close for the 49ers, and I know their defense has been amazing so far. However, they haven’t had to go against the likes of Run CMC and a coach as aggressive as Ron Rivera. I think the Panthers can keep this game closer than people think, and may even have a shot to upset them. Either that or they lose 21-0.
Alrighty, that takes us through to the final half of the 2019 NFL season! It seems like these weeks have just flown by, and I can’t believe it’s already Week 8. If there’s anything I missed, that you disagree with, or maybe you think I said something smart (a long shot, but I’ll take my wins where I can) please keep the conversation going on Twitter and hit me up at @Rellihan51. Thanks as always for reading, and I’ll see you for Start/Sit. NFL Week 8 game picks.
For God’s sake Andy, let Mahomes rest this week. Or two. Or three.
Nick Rellihan
