We are about a week into the New Year, and many people are just starting their resolutions and trying their best to maintain them. As for NCAA basketball, the New Year means conference play has just started. Here are the seven things I have noticed so far this season.
Weak Recruiting Class
Last season, as you know, we were “Zionized” by Zion Williamson and how good the freshmen were a year ago. For starters, six freshmen were drafted in the first 10 picks. As for this year’s class, it’s about average. The number one recruit in the class has only played three games due to suspension and decided to go pro early. Cole Anthony, arguably the best freshman point guard in the country, is good, but not elite. Yes, he can score and he’s a very good athlete, but is he a franchise-changing caliber player? What about the future point guard that can run your team for the next decade? The answer is no.
How about Anthony Edwards? Great scorer, great athlete with good size for his position, but his lack of efficiency and decision making scares me. My point is no one has separated themselves as the number one overall pick. The potential number one overall pick could be LaMelo Ball who decided to skip college and play overseas in Australia. I see more freshmen role players than I see future superstars.
NCAA Basketball Teams Can’t Shoot
The NCAA basketball three-point line has been moved back 16 inches to the FIBA line (22 feet, 1 3/4). In previous years many teams got away with “constructing” shooters, meaning they would throw a guy in a shooter role because he shot around 31-33 percent. As for this year, coaches have to find and recruit guys that can actually stretch the floor and make shots consistently at a good percentage.
Many analysts think pushing the line back will help with “spacing”. I disagree. If teams can’t shoot why chase certain players around screens or go over ball screens? Why even extend ball pressure past 25 feet if the team can’t shoot? You could pack the paint or run a zone. Currently, 62 teams are shooting under 30 percent. Last year it was just 13. Last season,107 teams shot under 33 percent, today it is 141. 30 of them are in Power 6 conferences compared to 20 from a year ago.
The ACC Took A Hit
Historically the ACC has been the best conference in college basketball. However, things have changed. Last season they sent seven teams to the NCAA tournament, five went to the sweet-sixteen and Virginia won the National Championship. This year the conference has taken a huge hit. North Carolina doesn’t look like a tournament team, due to lack of recruiting depth, experience, and injuries.
As for Virginia, they cannot score, they haven’t hit the 70 point mark all-season. They have also scored under 50 points four times this season. Are they elite defensively and do they have one of the best cultures in college basketball? Sure. But they don’t put up enough points to beat good teams around the country. They will have to score more 55 points to win most games in conference play.
Finally, what about Louisville? The Cardinals are very talented, but I question their point guard play. Against Texas Tech both of their point guards combined shot 2/9 from the field with seven turnovers and two assists. Also, against Florida State, they shot 5/18 from the field with only three assists and three turnovers. We have never seen a team advance to the Final Four with bad or inconsistent point guard play and this year will not be an exception.
More NCAA Basketball Parity/Teams Coming Out Of Nowhere
84 players entered the 2019 NBA Draft early, 44 of them were not drafted, and most of them could still be playing in college. This would explain why so many people think college basketball is down this year. So far this season we have had six teams ranked as the number one team in the country. Many of them losing that ranking within the first week.
Not to mention many players are coming into college underrecruited. Four players that got drafted in the top 11 last year weren’t top 100 recruits (Ja Morant, Jarrett Culver, Rui Hachimura, Cameron Johnson). A year ago, Kansas State finished 19th in the coaches poll and they did not have any top 100 recruits. Florida State, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, and Purdue only had two kids ranked in the top 100.
Meanwhile, more than 1000 college athletes transfer every year. Currently, the University of New Mexico has four former top 100 players on their roster that transferred in from different schools. Teams are also coming out of nowhere that could make it to Final Four. Dayton, Butler, San Diego State, and Iowa weren’t predicted to win their conference, but yet they all have a good chance to do so. They all have predominantly veteran rosters, are well-coached, and all have an identity.
Fantastic Point Guard Play
If you look around the scope of NCAA basketball it would be hard to find many teams that don’t have a good point guard, some have multiple. Even in the mid-major conferences, the point guard play is fantastic. What qualities make a good point guard? The Great IQ and Leadership of Cassius Winston and tenacity and fearlessness of Devon Dotson. What about the ability to score on all three-levels and make big-time like Myles Powell and Anthony Cowan Jr? Finally, the ability to not only defend but disrupt ball-handlers like Ashton Hagans.
To close, here is a list of some of my favorite underrated point guards:
Gabe Watson-Southern Mississippi
13.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.7 APG
Marcus Evans-VCU
11.4 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 2.5 APG
Jacob Gilyard-Richmond
15.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.9 APG
Colbey Ross-Pepperdine
19.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 7.4 APG
Charlie Moore-Depaul
15.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 6.4 APG
James Akinjo-Georgetown/Arizona
13.4 PPG, 3 RPG, 4.4 APG
Alani Moore-Temple
9.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.8 APG
JJ Caldwell-New Mexico
5.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.6 APG
TJ Haws-BYU
12.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 4.9 APG
Loren Jackson-Akron
15.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.8 APG
Follow me on Twitter @tobias_bass and check out other Belly Up college basketball articles.
