The football world hasn’t even finished exhaling for the first time since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick first won a Super Bowl in 2002. With Brady bound for the Bay and an unproven replacement plan in place, the Patriots seem to be trending downward. Then reports came that the Patriots are close to acquiring the third overall pick in Thursday night’s draft from the Detroit Lions. I know that if you live outside the land of chowdah you don’t want to think about this. I don’t want to think about this. It is time, though, to prepare ourselves. I’m going to try not to turn that sigh of relief into a groan of despair as I decide who the Patriots trade target is at three.
Target 1- QB Joe Burrow, LSU
This is the least likely, as it would take bulletproof knowledge of what the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Redskins are doing with the first two picks. After setting the college football world on fire, winning a National Championship and the Heisman Trophy, Joe Burrow is going to be the first player picked on Thursday. Whether the Bengals take him or trade the rights to another quarterback needy team is up for debate, but that is the pick. If Burrow was the Patriots trade target, they would be talking to Cincinnati, not Detroit.
Did Nate Herman pick Burrow #1 in the Belly Up Fantasy Sports Mock Draft? Find out!
Target 2- QB Justin Herbert, Oregon
Justin Herbert’s path to the draft continues to confound me. I thought he was easily going to be the second quarterback taken in last year’s draft. With only Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins to compete with, he decided to return to Oregon for his senior season instead. Granted, none of us predicted Burrow, but it seemed like a gamble at the time. When the first mocks had him going in the teens, an awful gamble. It feels like every time I see a profile of Herbert there is an air of “bust” to it, and yet, his stock has done nothing but rise.
If Belichick believes he can mold Herbert into the next Brady, a move to three should net him. Unless a team that likes him more is willing to pay a king’s ransom to Washington, Herbert will be there. The question then becomes, if there weren’t enough weapons for Brady to succeed in New England, how will Herbert? If you trade to three for Herbert, it’s as a day-one starter. Herbert and that offense will struggle mightily early, and that is never good for a quarterback’s development.
Patriots Trade Target 3- QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Injury history is always an important part of the evaluation of rookies coming into the league. The only player in recent memory I can think of that has had worse luck with recurring injuries in college is former South Carolina Gamecock Marcus Lattimore. Without a string of injuries, including a hip dislocation and fracture, Tua Tagovailoa may have been the number one pick despite Burrow’s season. With the added difficulty of the COVID-19 situation, it is hard to medically get an idea of where Tagovailoa stands.
Maybe Belichick believes he has exactly what he needs moving forward in Tagovailoa, and doesn’t mind that he won’t see the return immediately. In contrast to Herbert’s situation, Tagovailoa has shown enough pure talent to justify making the move and letting him sit. Jarrett Stidham would then get to experience the joy of being the signal-caller for a struggling team with a lack of offensive talent. In the meantime, Tagovailoa can get back to full health, and the Patriots can let some money fall off the books and prepare to reload when he is good to go.
Could the Patriots Trade Target be on Defense?
The general consensus about the split with Brady is that it was fueled by both he and Belichick’s desire to prove they could succeed without the other. The assumption seems to be that Belichick is coming from a “watch what I do with (insert prospect here)!” Based off of the little we know about Belichick’s- ahem, personality, though, leads me to a different line of thinking. He wouldn’t want to say “see, I did it with the third overall pick, too.” He famously found Brady at pick 199, and Jimmy Garoppolo at 62. No, after the last few years of having to hear everyone bemoan his ability to surround Brady with offensive talent, I think Belichick’s angle is “watch what I can do with a defense!”
Target 4- EDGE Chase Young, Ohio State
The Burrow-like stretch here is Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young. It would take Burrow going one and Washington trading number two to a team targeting Tagovailoa or Herbert for Young to fall to three. It would be fun to see, though, as he is more talented a pass rusher than Belichick has had since that original crew just after the turn of the century. The likelihood that the consensus most talented player in the draft falls to three, though, is small.
Patriots Trade Target 5- CB Jeff Okudah, Ohio State
The player currently being mocked by just about everyone at three is fellow Ohio State Buckeye and lockdown cornerback Jeff Okudah. Trading the assets it would take to move up that high for a guy who would have to become the best cornerback in the league to be the best one on your team seems a little strange, though.
Pairing Okudah with Stephon Gilmore would create a ridiculous duo on the outside, and that wouldn’t be the worst thing. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills just got Stefon Diggs, the Miami Dolphins might come out of this draft with three first round picks on offense, and the New York Jets… are also a team that is in the AFC East. Add to that the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC going through Patrick Mahomes, and the trade doesn’t seem crazy, just odd.
Target 6- LB/S Isaiah Simmons, Clemson
The last Patriots trade target would be defense player Isaiah Simmons of Clemson. Simmons projects as an all-over-the-field terror, and would likely have the greatest impact of any single player on that side of the ball in this draft. He can rush the edge, cover the flat out of the second level, and cover sideline to sideline as a deep safety. If Belichick is looking to transform the Patriots defensive identity with one pick, this is likely the guy to do that.
Whoever Belichick wants at three, I don’t want him to get them. I remember, as a teenager, watching the Patriots complete the thrilling comeback against the Greatest Show on Turf in the Super Bowl. I remember thinking “good, I didn’t want to have to see the Rams win the Super Bowl every year. That would get boring.” Little did I know, there were two decades of torture ahead of me. Years from now, I will look back at the Patriots dynasty, and at Belichick, and think about how awesome it was to experience in real-time. How fun it was to see this grumpy, quiet, private guy bring the entire league to its knees year after year. For now, though, I am ready for it to end.
