We’re all well aware of the favorites. There’s no questioning the chances of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Twins, Braves, and Nationals. There’s also real optimism about the Reds, Rays, White Sox, Athletics, and Indians. The reason why this beautiful sport has so many games is to allow for the cream to rise to the top. If you remember, the 2019 champions were well under .500 after 60 games. If there were ever a year to take a risk, this is the year to do it. Below, you’ll find three teams that in a regular season I would not have suggested to have genuine World Series hopes. This year, though, there’s a real chance for a Zoom parade for these three teams.
Texas Rangers
Texas is currently at +7500 to win it all this year. They’re going to be traveling more than George Clooney in Up in the Air. Willie Calhoun could miss significant time with a hip injury. There’s no true ace or a lockdown closer. Their offensive depth is the most limited its been in years. If I keep going, I’m going to forget why I’m writing about the Rangers being competitive, so here’s the positive spin.
For one, they have a tremendously underrated rotation. There are two holdovers from 2019: Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Lynn was throwing harder than he’s ever thrown in his life last year. In a short season, he can really just air it out and be dominant. Meanwhile, Mike Minor was an All-Star and had 200 strikeouts. Then, there are the three newcomers: Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Corey Kluber.
Their projected fifth starter, Lyles went 7-1 in the second half of the season with a 2.45 ERA last year. If he can bring to Texas what he discovered in Milwaukee, he is easily the best fifth starter in the American League. While most teams only hope for somebody to take the ball every five days, the Rangers have top tier stability rounding out their rotation. They also traded for two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber. Before his injury, he may not have been at his best, but it was a small sample size. In his last full season, he won 20 games and had the lowest walk rate of his career.
Love this!
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 16, 2020
Corey Kluber, Slider (home plate view). https://t.co/pSFBwyvnJW pic.twitter.com/mYFhWWV74u
Their bullpen has been a point of criticism in recent years and rightfully so. Part of the reason why I’m so high on this team is my belief in their enigmatic closer. Jose Leclerc ranks incredibly high in hard-hit rate, whiff rate, K rate, spin rate, and batters have a tough time squaring him up when they do make contact. While his ERA last year isn’t indicative of a good closer, his advanced stats point to him being elite. The middle relief is a concern, but there’s a good mix of flame-throwers and veterans who should be able to collectively bridge the gap.
With their stabilized pitching, their World Series hopes hinge on their lineup performing at a high level. It’s not far-fetched when you consider the 2019 Joey Gallo was having before his injury. There’s also the streaky Rougned Odor and a full season of Nick Solak to consider. A lot of their best bats can play all over the field too, which allows manager Chris Woodward with some much needed flexibility. What better way to introduce a new stadium than with their first World Series?
Arizona Diamondbacks
Unlike the Rangers, the Diamondbacks are a team that doesn’t have a lot of “ifs.” They have a solid rotation, a good bullpen, and a fierce lineup. They’re in a division with the Dodgers, but the rest of their competition stinks. The Padres are on their way up, but for me, they’re still a year away. The Rockies can hit, but I don’t care if they have Murderer’s Row, they still won’t hit enough to win. And the Giants are simply awful. They’ll battle Baltimore for the worst record this season. Arizona, on the other hand, had 85 wins last year without Starling Marte, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, and Madison Bumgarner. The DH spot will especially help them because they have true offensive depth with rookies Kevin Cron and Daulton Varsho.
A lot about this team reminds me of the Rangers, except they will hit better. Their odds to win it all are +5000 at the moment, which surprises me. For context, they have the same odds as the Red Sox who currently have three people in their starting rotation, no Mookie Betts, no bullpen, no manager, and no hope for this year. Arizona’s bullpen, on the other hand, gets a full year of Kevin Ginkel, who could fill in at closer if Archie Bradley struggles. They have a well rounded, if not exceptional, starting rotation and lineup.
It’s so awesome to be able to watch the @Dbacks again! Ketel Marte just went yard. pic.twitter.com/NCzl4Te5Cd
— Ryan Kelapire (@RKelapire) July 14, 2020
Regarding the lineup, Ketel Marte’s performance last year was no fluke. Eduardo Escobar had the best hard-hit rate of his career while hitting 35 homers and driving in 118. Did I mention they added Starling Marte? You don’t trade for him if you don’t expect to win now. He’s a 20/20 player with elite speed and one of the few xBA over .300. The only real hole in their lineup is Jake Lamb, but they can afford to put him on the bench if he continues to be bad. Kevin Cron crushed the minor leagues last year and is built for that DH role. Also, Daulton Varsho can platoon with Carson Kelly if he continues to struggle against righties. Additionally, he can play all three outfield positions as well as second base. I’m really high on this team.
Toronto Blue Jays
How well Toronto plays this year is totally up to their aggressiveness. I’ll admit to not being super high on them. I think they’re a couple of years away from being truly competitive. That said, the Blue Jays are one team that can get hot over 60 games and ride that youthful exuberance all the way. If the kids take a step forward, their lineup will be a force. There is optimism for the bottom half of their lineup, too. With Alejandro Kirk lurking in the player pool, Danny Jansen is running out of time to prove he’s the future. Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Rowdy Tellez all have hot streaks in them as well.
Their rotation needs a lot of help, and so does their bullpen. Despite these harsh truths, Hyun-jin Ryu doesn’t get enough credit no matter how good he’s been for so long. The rest of them have a lot of question marks, but a full year of Matt Shoemaker will help. Ken Giles has always been a top closer. In fact, the only time he’s bad is when he’s not closing. The aggressiveness I was referring to is the pocket aces in Toronto’s player pool. How fast do they bring up Nate Pearson, and what do they do with him? If they air him out in the rotation, he could be an immediate ace. While we’re at it, Alek Manoah is another big college arm who has the type of two-pitch combination that would be an impact out of the bullpen right away.
Captain @BoFlows wastes NO time ? #BlueJaysOnSN pic.twitter.com/ppdOOS0WeJ
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 14, 2020
With odds of +8000, they’re truly a long shot. I’d place my bets on Texas and Arizona first, but there is reason for optimism in Toronto. At the very least, this shows they’re not far away. Are they really that much worse than the Padres at +3000? It doesn’t hurt that they are the most likely team to not put themselves at risk for acquiring COVID. Anything suspicious, and they’re facing a hefty fine and jail time. Yikes.
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