The NFL is a league where an elite QB is the difference between a playoff contender and a middle of the road team. There is arguably no position in any team sport with greater value than the Quarterback. He’s the leader of your football team and commands the whole offense. One of the greatest ever at that position is Green Bay Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers, who has been arguably the most talented QB of all time. This however doesn’t mean Aaron Rodgers is still elite in the NFL. He’s had injuries and less than stellar seasons, and while he still has an immaculate TD-INT ratio, that’s not the only stat that matters in football. Yards, leverage, and defense-adjusted metrics are extremely important, and Rodgers simply isn’t that great in those metrics anymore.
Aaron Rodgers Play Is Mediocre Against Good Defenses
Aaron Rodgers had only 5 games against top 10 defenses in the league (according to Football Outsiders’ Weighted Defense), and he was.. meh against them. These were two games against Chicago, two against Minnesota, and one against San Francisco. How did he do? Well, he only had one game with multiple touchdowns. He put up these stats per game, and they were less than stellar.
| Player Stats (per game) | TD | INT | Yards | Yards Per Attempt | Completion % |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 0.2 | 187 | 5.5 | 63.5% |
The numbers in green highlight stats that were better than his season totals per game and the red shows what’s worse. There is a clear sign of him being significantly worse than his per game average in his 2019 season and the only stats that were better were obvious results of his low yards per attempt. Those stats just don’t scream “Aaron Rodgers is a top 5 QB in the NFL” to me. With Aaron Rodgers being a game manager essentially during these matchups, how did he go 4-1 in those games?
Aaron Jones Coming to the Rescue
Aaron Jones was 4th in the NFL in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) out of all Running Backs and 5th in Success%. He is one of the best running backs in the NFL and in the aforementioned 5 games against top 10 defenses he put up these numbers:
| Player Stats (Per Game) | TD | Fumbles | Y/G | Y/A | Attempts |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | .4 | 79.6 | 4.1 | 19.4 |
While his TDs stay the same, his amount of Yards per Game and Attempts per Game spike dramatically from his normal stats in 2019. This is because the Packers in those games saw Jones rush for 100 or more times three out of the five games, and in the games he didn’t the whole offense fell apart with 10 points in the Packers win against the Bears and 8 against the 49ers. While yes Aaron Rodgers not turning the ball over is a huge help, his running game gave the Packers offense their spark, not A-Rod.
Finishing Out of the Top 5 in Many Metrics
Aaron Rodgers has not finished in the top 10 in DVOA since 2016 and hasn’t finished top 5 since 2014. He hasn’t been elite for three years at the very minimum, and while he maintained a god-like TD-INT ratio, it’s while having an adjusted Yard per Attempt index that’s 7.5% lower than league average since 2016. He simply isn’t that great now, and he’s a game manager more than a superstar QB. Still don’t believe me? Here’s a list of QBs I would take over Aaron Rodgers right now (going based on DVOA, and in no particular order):
- Patrick Mahomes
- Lamar Jackson
- Russell Wilson
- Drew Brees
- Deshaun Watson
- Carson Wentz
- Matt Ryan
There are some that are on the fence, but if I name too many I’ll make an enemy out of the entire state of Wisconsin. All of those QBs since 2017 average a better DVOA and are better QBs, and I don’t want to hear the “bUt wHaT aBoUt wINnInG” argument because a QB can’t play defense. Do people forget that? Matt Ryan is incapable of playing cornerback or being a running back, it is not his fault his defense was mediocre and he had a putrid running game. A-Rod might not even be the best QB in the NFC North, but no one’s ready for that conversation yet.
In the end, say what you want about Aaron Rodgers, but he’s not an elite QB and for sure isn’t top five in the NFL anymore.
