500 FedEx Cup points are on the line this week as the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic gets underway. Beginning in 2007, this tournament was the first PGA Tour event to be held outside of the United States or Canada. There has never been a two-time champion in the tournament’s 13-year history, and zero champions have been major champions. Not that it means much, but this year’s field is stronger than years past. Perhaps it’s because of a shortened season or the players are in a rhythm just a few weeks after the Masters. Either way, this year has the potential to have some fireworks and see some of the world’s best duel it out in the final traditional tournament of the year.
Note: There is a competition next week but it is a team event consisting of 24 players making up 12 teams.
Television Coverage
The live coverage will be limited this week as there is no Featured Groups coverage on NBC Sports Gold. So you’ll have to wait until it’s on Golf Channel and NBC to catch the action.
Rounds one, two, and three will be televised from 2:00 PM-5:00 PM EST on Golf Channel.
The final round will be televised from 1:00 PM-4:00 PM EST on NBC.
2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic Field
Current world number-one Dustin Johnson was expected to be in the field this week until he released this statement.
Unfortunately Dustin Johnson has withdrawn from the tournament. Here is his statement. pic.twitter.com/dNan3zg6nV
— Mayakoba Golf Classic (@MayakobaGolf) November 27, 2020
It’s hard to blame him when you live in Hilton Head, South Carolina and just won your first Masters.
Nine of thirteen past champions will be in the field as well, looking to become the first two-time champion of this event.
Here are some notables included in the field this week (Odds are courtesy of The Lines, as of November 30th):
Justin Thomas (+600)
Justin Thomas enters this week with 13 career wins on the PGA Tour, including one major win and two wins in 2020. Thomas is a former world number one and looks to add to his trophy case before we get into the bulk of the 2020-21 season. At +600, Thomas is the favorite to win and it’s hard to pass on him, but there isn’t a ton of value compared to other in the field.
Brooks Koepka (+1100)
It may be hard to comprehend, but Brooks Koepka only gets ready to win when it’s a major championship. While his “friend” Dustin Johnson can turn it on any week and win whenever he wants, Brooks doesn’t seem to want to win often. He has four major wins but only three other PGA Tour trophies, his last coming in 2019. Koepka is one of the favorites to win this week, but it’s hard to imagine him winning a regular event just weeks after he competed in a major.
Tony Finau (+1600)
Tony Finau comes into the week with one career win on the PGA Tour. That came at a playoff in the 2016 Puerto Rico Open. Since then, he’s contended in numerous events without getting a win. He has a top five finish in each of the four majors, including the 2020 PGA Championship. With such a strong field, I don’t know if Finau will be able to close this one out. But look for him to compete once again. He’s +450 to finish in the top five, and +200 to finish in the top ten. I’m comfortable with either of these two bets.
Rickie Fowler (+2500)
Rickie Fowler is looking for his sixth win on the PGA Tour and first since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. After changing his swing during quarantine, Fowler failed to find the winner’s circle in the 2019-20 season. If he doesn’t capture one this week, look for him to get at least one win in the 2020-21 season. At +2500, Fowler brings a lot of value with him while looking for his first win of the season.
Gary Woodland (+6600)
2019 U.S. Open winner Gary Woodland enters the week as the thirty-fifth ranked player in the world. Looking to finish 2020 strong and take some momentum into 2021, Woodland is trying to win his third PGA Tour event. It will be his first win since his major win in 2019 and first non-major win since 2018. At +6600, Woodland is a long-shot to win the tournament. The smart play will be to take him at +550 to finish Top Ten or +250 to finish Top Twenty.
The Course
The tournament this week will be played at El Camaleón Golf Club. Located just off the Caribbean, about an hour outside of Cancún, it’s surprising this tournament doesn’t have a stronger field every year. Playing as a par-71, this Greg Norman designed course incorporates everything from jungle landscapes to an underground cavern in the middle of the seventh fairway.
The 13th hole is tricky for the players and strategy will be important in how to play the hole. With a narrowing fairway and a narrow green, players will have to navigate around the water to have a chance at a birdie.
The closing hole at El Camaleón Golf Club is a long par-four with a difficulty that can be determined by the wind. The unique design of the clubhouse behind the green can be used as target for players looking to finish strong and hit this green in regulation.
The Weather
Expect delayed rounds early and maybe a Monday finish or a Sunday finish in the dark. With low winds and soft greens, expect a low score to win this tournament.
Storylines for the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
Building Momentum for 2021
Most of the world’s top players in the field this week are playing the last tournament of the year. The higher-ranked players will use this week to hone in their skills and hopefully capture a win to take into the new year. The lower-ranked players will look to capture a win in order to earn their tour card for 2021 and perhaps have a strong finish to qualify for the 2021 major championships.
Christmas Come Early
The best player this week will be able to get himself an early Christmas gift. Perhaps Justin Thomas or Brooks Koepka will add to their trophy case, or players like Harold Varner III will finally fill the gap on his mantle this holiday season.
No Need to Repeat Yourself
In it’s thirteen-year history, there have been thirteen different winners of this event. With nine of the thirteen in the field this week, will we finally see a two-time champion or will the strength of the field crown someone new?
My Picks and Predictions
Winner: Rickie Fowler (+2500)
I’ve lasted this long, but I have to admit something. I’m a massive Rickie Fowler fan. It was hard not picking him to win the Masters this year, but I’m not hiding anymore. Look for Fowler to go low this week to capture his sixth PGA Tour win and get himself an early Christmas gift. I know I shouldn’t pick with the heart, but it’s the holiday season and I just want to, okay?
Top Ten Finish: Corey Conners (+350)
I was on Corey Conners to win the RSM Classic. I’ll admit it, I was wrong. But, I’m more confident this week that he’ll finish top ten than I was for him to win previously. He’s coming off a tie for tenth place in his last two starts at the Masters and the RSM Classic. I like for Conners to continue his top ten streak this week.
Score Prediction: -18
Brendon Todd won this tournament last season at twenty-under par, while Matt Kuchar won in 2018 with twenty-two-under par. I expect a low score to win this tournament, but not a record low. With thunderstorms likely on Thursday and Friday, I expect the greens to be slower, forcing players to be precise on their approach shots.
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