A Thursday night smackdown in Los Angeles, a Philly special upset on Sunday, and the game of the year in Cleveland on Monday night. Here are your NFL Week 14 Divisional Takeaways.
AFC East: The King is Dead
Division Leader: Buffalo Bills (10-3)
And just like that, the streak is over.
For the first time in 12 years, and only the fourth time this century, the AFC East will be won by a team other than the New England Patriots. The final strike for the Patriots’ longshot division hopes came via their Thursday night blowout loss to the Rams paired with the Bills’ win over Pittsburgh. It all seems a bit surreal, but if we’re being honest, this was hardly a surprise. Heading into the 2020-21 NFL season, New England had the most difficult schedule in the league, and they lost their franchise centerpiece and the greatest quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady. While all teams had to contend with the limitations of a COVID-19 hastened offseason, no team had more players opt-out of the season than the Patriots.
I still believe the Bills are a few steps away from being Super Bowl contenders. They lack consistency and an effective rushing attack, both required elements against the likes of Kansas City. Still, Buffalo planted their flag atop the division this year. Miami has looked like a team with a clear vision for the future. Even the hapless Jets are a first overall pick and a smart head coaching hire (HA!) away from being in the discussion.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have questions. Who will start at quarterback for them in 2021-22? How do the players who opted-out look once they return to the field? How many drunkenly constructed Tom Brady statues do we see erected outside Gilette Stadium once fans can return to Foxborough?
One thing is for certain; New England’s fearless leader will be there, searching for answers like he always does. And isn’t he glorious?
AFC North: Browns Get Dropped
Division Leader: Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)
Cleveland’s Monday night 47-42 loss to the Ravens all but eliminates them from division contention.
Pittsburgh would need to lose their remaining three games, including their Week 15 matchup with the 2-10-1 Bengals for the Browns to have a shot. Which is very unlikely! Rather than play through all the scenarios, let’s take a minute to appreciate that awesome Monday night game between the Ravens and Browns.
It was the best game of the year.
There were 89 total points. There was an NFL record-tying nine combined rushing touchdowns. We got a 55-yard game-winning field goal. These were all nice storylines. None of them are the reason this game will be unforgettable. The reason this game will endure is simple.
This was the Lamar Jackson poop game.
Following a Browns’ touchdown and two-point conversion at the beginning of the 4th quarter, the Ravens offense came back onto the field with 13:36 remaining in the game. Baltimore still had a six-point lead. They simply needed to continue running the ball effectively while allowing Lamar Jackson to make plays. There was only one problem.
Jackson was nowhere to be found.
I scanned the sidelines and he wasn’t there. Their previous offensive possession ended with a touchdown. The Baltimore quarterback looked fine.
Then we saw it.
The 2020 version of the Zapruder film.
They told us he had cramps. Does that look like someone who is dealing with cramps? Jogging with the intense urgency of a wanted man? Ready to risk it all and discard anyone who may get in his way? Jackson, for transparency’s sake, echoed the same story. He claimed he was merely suffering from cramps and denied any additional allegations. Of course he did.
Do you think the reigning NFL MVP is going to go on record about needing to leave the field of play to avoid shitting his pants?
Forget, for the moment, all the jokes about how he’d instantly become an honorary captain of the Browns. Or how the ‘P’ in his MVP title would suddenly adopt a new meaning. ‘Ole’ bubble guts Jackson‘ isn’t going to be the one to fan the flames of this conspiracy, but the proof is in the pants pudding. Just look what he did when he came back in the game!
LET'S
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 15, 2020
FREAKING
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Tune in: https://t.co/duomvuhT6t pic.twitter.com/fnjDgSOSlk
Did you watch until the end? Because if that’s not the giddy frolicking of a man who just spent 20+ minutes exorcising some of the foulest demons known to man, I don’t know what it is.
Anyway, it was an amazing game. Jackson returned from the porcelain goddess to usher his team to victory, dropping the Browns (in more ways than one) to 9-4.
It was an instant classic. The game of the year.
It was the Lamar Jackson poop game.
AFC South: Free Deshaun Watson
Division Leader: Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
Let’s take a break this week from the two-man horse race between the Colts and the Titans. The Colts beat the lowly Raiders. The Titans defeated the decimated Bengals. No surprises there.
Instead, let’s talk about the sadness of Deshaun Watson having his talents wasted in Houston. With the Texans’ 36-7 loss to the Bears on Sunday, they now sit at 4-9 and will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2017-18 season. The franchise is a mess and it has been for a long, long time. Sunday’s loss to the Bears stung for a different reason.
Fans in Chicago constantly revisit their selection of Mitch Trubisky over the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, but what gets lost in that discussion is that for Mahomes, it worked out great. It even led to a Super Bowl win. For Watson, it has meant organizational turmoil and a cap on his potential. The question is often framed as, “What would the Bears look like with Watson?”
I’m more curious about what Watson would look like in Chicago. Can you imagine Bears’ fans excitement?
We’ve seen his playmaking ability and what he’s capable of with a true number one receiver. What about pairing him with Allen Robinson? The days of an imposing Houston defense pre-date Watson’s tenure. What could a team that combines the toughness of a Khalil Mack led defense accomplish with Watson under center?
Watching Watson run around the field on Sunday looking for receivers who couldn’t create space while being forced to work with one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, I just felt bad for everyone involved.
How many lives must the Bears franchise ruin?
AFC West: Kansas City and the Dangers of Autopilot
Division Leader: Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
Let me tell you a little story.
When I was a senior in high school, we had a recreational basketball tournament that ended with us (the seniors) playing against the freshmen. We’d sailed past the rest of our opponents, and were having a great time mucking it up while we warmed up for the championship against the pre-pubescent little tykes. The game started. While we were having a good time, just going through the motions, those little munchkins were playing like their lives were on the line. By the time we realized what was happening and tried to turn on the gas, it was too late. They had momentum and we didn’t have enough time. They beat us. I wish you could see how red my face is right now. To this day it infuriates me. Pure, uncut anger coursing through my veins.
Part of me wonders if this will be the fate of the Chiefs.
To be clear, Kansas City is likely more talented than our senior year ‘Portland Profit$.’ They’re probably the best team in the league, and their offense is historically dangerous. Yet while it would seem foolish to bet against them as overwhelming Super Bowl front-runners, they’ve shown glimpses of vulnerability throughout the year. Whether starting slow and needing to compensate down the stretch, like in their wins against the Chargers and Panthers, or taking their foot off the gas and letting teams back in the game as in their win against Tampa Bay. Then there was this week’s 33-27 win over Miami, in which they managed to start slow, rebound to take a commanding lead, then let up enough to allow Miami a window of opportunity.
It should be noted that Kansas City won all of these games. Even on days like Sunday where Patrick Mahomes throws three interceptions and Chiefs’ running backs combine for just over 50 rushing yards, the team continues to find ways to win. 458 yards of total offense is what they do on their bad days.
The question, then, is how long they can keep this trend going. In a playoff matchup against the Bills, who have hit their stride? What about a Super Bowl matchup with a Saints team who has their full defensive arsenal and a healthy Drew Brees under center? Maybe Kansas City is talented enough to win this way through the playoffs on their way to a second consecutive title. You just never know what might happen if your off-day coincides with another team’s best game of the season.
Just look at the damn freshmen.
NFC East: Legitimacy in Washington?
Division Leader: Washington Football Team (6-7)
Things are getting weird.
First, you have the Eagles, who somehow managed the upset of the week with their 24-21 win over the previously top-seeded Saints. This Eagles team, who hadn’t eclipsed 200 rushing yards in a single game all season, ran for 246 yards on Sunday. Both Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts rushed for over 100 yards, against a Saints defense that hadn’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher in 55 games. I guess starting Jalen Hurts and benching Carson Wentz was just what the doctor ordered.
(Carson Wentz’s doctor):
This was a classic new quarterback, new energy type game. It was a complacent team looking beyond an inferior opponent to a Week 15 matchup against the Chiefs, type of game. It was certainly a ‘how the hell is Taysom Hill a starting quarterback’ type of game. Most of all though, it was a fluke. Great win for Philadelphia, tough loss for New Orleans, but it doesn’t move the needle on how we should view either squad or their futures.
Seeming like less of a fluke each week, however, is the Washington Football team.
With their 23-15 road win over the 49ers, Washington is now 6-7, sitting atop the division having won four games in a row. Averaging two forced turnovers per-game over their current four-game streak, Sunday’s matchup with San Fransisco saw their defense turn the 49ers over three times, including a 47-yard fumble recovery touchdown for Chase Young. Their Week 15 matchup with the Seahawks is going to tell us a lot about this team. Can their defense put enough pressure on Russell Wilson and force turnovers the way they have over their current streak? That will be the test.
No one should want to face this defense right now.
NFC North: The Wisconsin Connection
Division Leader: Green Bay Packers (10-3)
There’s a new top-dog in the NFC.
Green Bay’s 31-24 win over the Lions on Sunday, paired with the Saints’ loss to the Eagles, puts Green Bay atop the conference with three weeks remaining in the regular season. The Packers’ defense has been middle of the pack (no pun intended) all season. They haven’t lost the team any games, but they’re certainly not winning them any, either. Maybe this will be put under a microscope as we move into the playoffs, but to this point, they’ve had plenty of help.
That help has come in the form of MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers, offensive player of the year candidate Davante Adams, and the dominant Green Bay offense.
Rodgers (first in passing touchdowns, passer rating, QBR) has led Green Bay’s offense (first in points, touchdowns, turnovers) to the top of the conference. Despite missing two games and being forced from another matchup early, Adams is still somehow tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns and, on a per-game basis, sits alone atop the league in receiving yards. We rightfully talk a lot about Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense, but the Packers, with far fewer playmakers, have worked their way into the discussion as the top offense in the league.
Will it matter? Probably not.
FiveThirtyEight still has the Chiefs’ Elo rating 100 points above the Packers, and the Packers will have a tough road to the Super Bowl in a very competitive NFC.
For Green Bay, though, their offense is as explosive as any in the league. They’re making history. It seems like this is the year their quarterback might bring home his third MVP.
NFC South: Sean Payton Made a Mistake
Division Leader: New Orleans Saints (10-3)
That’s simply not a game New Orleans should lose.
Week 15 against Kansas City was supposed to be the question. The playoffs, should Drew Brees have issues returning to the field, would be a source of concern. But a Week 14 game against the 3-8-1 Eagles who were giving a rookie quarterback his first start?
The Eagles beat the Saints 24-21 on Sunday, and while it’s tempting to completely re-evaluate how we feel about New Orleans as playoff contenders, I don’t think it shifted the landscape all that much. Yes, it cost New Orleans the top seed in the NFC for the time being, but they’ll likely have a chance to regain their place atop the conference. What was reinforced this week, though, is how mediocre this Saints offense is with Taysom Hill under center.
In turn, the questioning of head coach Sean Payton has intensified. Questions over why he decided to go with Hill once Brees was injured have evolved from mumbling whispers of concern to apoplectic demands of explanation.
Watching Hill lead the Saints’ offense, the examples of ineptitude are nearly constant.
You see it with the team not scoring until midway through the 3rd quarter. Other than their second possession that ended with a missed field goal, four of New Orleans’ first six offensive possessions ended with punts, one with an interception. You see it in big moments; not getting the ball to his playmakers on a 4th down in the 4th quarter, and instead, fumbling to the opponent at mid-field to set them up for a score. Again, and most costly, you see it in him taking a sack on 3rd and 8 with just over two minutes remaining in the game, turning a 49-yard field goal attempt into a 58-yard try.
Would Jameis Winston have avoided all these mistakes? Maybe not. He did throw 30 interceptions last season. He also threw 30 touchdowns. Most importantly, he got the ball to his playmakers. Alvin Kamara has been the offense’s best weapon all season, and prior to Brees’ injury, he was the front-runner for offensive player of the year. Kamara was averaging over 7 receptions and 72 receiving yards per game with Brees under center. In four games with Hill at quarterback, he’s averaging 2.5 receptions and under 13 receiving yards per game.
It’s just one example of many for how this offense has struggled. The team looks dejected. The eye-test doesn’t reveal any confidence, and if Sunday’s loss was any indication, the uncertainty is now spreading to the defense.
It’s time for Sean Payton to own up to this mistake. That’s not likely to happen. This team, though, deserves better and this is the week, before a big matchup with the Chiefs, to make the shift. Pick up the phone and call Taysom Hill, Sean.
You know what to say.
NFC West – A (Slight) Return to Form
Division Leader: Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
OK, that made more sense.
Following a few bizarre weeks of puzzling losses and playoff questions, Week 14 saw a return to some semblance of normalcy. The Rams dominated the Patriots on a national stage with their 24-3 shellacking. The Seahawks took care of business with their easy 40-3 win over the still winless Jets. The Cardinals beat the Giants 26-7, and Kyler Murray finally looked like his early-season self again. Heck, even the 49ers returned to their 2020 form by losing to the Washington Football team in a bizarre 23-15 (sort of) home game.
Over the past several weeks, the three NFC West contenders have given many reasons to doubt their potential against the preeminent teams in the conference. I still don’t see them winning in the playoffs against Green Bay, New Orleans (once Drew Brees returns), or even Tampa Bay. If I had to choose one of them to make a playoff run, I would pick the Rams. They have the best shot due to their strength on defense, effective run game, and playmakers on offense.
The final few weeks will see matchups between Seattle and Los Angeles, as well as between Los Angeles and Arizona. It’s all very convoluted. As has been the case all season long, the standings are likely to shift several times over the ensuing weeks of the season.
This division is a guessing game. This division, like most divisions, like both conferences, and like the entire league, is still up for grabs.
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