The New England Patriots are hot. Like, possible Super Bowl threat hot. Riding a six-game win streak, taking out some of the AFC’s best competitors, Bill Belichick’s squad has returned to form. A form that’s been unseen since the days of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski tearing the league apart in Foxboro themselves. Now it’s rookie Mac Jones, and a receiving core as scrappy as any, that’s taken the league by storm. After a complete demolition of a banged-up Titans team, the Patriots have their toughest foe yet ahead on Monday Night Football. The Buffalo Bills.
The Bills have been one of the league’s best themselves this season. Posting a respectable 7-4 record and are just one game back of the Patriots for the lead of the division. They’ve had their ups and downs, but one thing has been consistent. Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen are a duo as strong as any in this league. The Patriots have their work cut out for them this week. This isn’t a banged-up team or one that is mentally checked out. This is as complete of a team as they’re going to meet down the stretch of this season. And they get to do it twice. So let’s not delay this preview anymore! Set it up, Bailey. Let’s get this one started.
Three Keys To The Game
Key #1: Prioritize Neutralizing Stefon Diggs
Simply put, the Patriots did a terrible job of covering Diggs last year. Without Stephon Gilmore, the task was put to Mr. Interception J.C. Jackson in both of their matchups last year. Without question, Diggs got the better of the ball-hawking corner. Diggs versus the Patriots posted 226 yards and five touchdowns in their two meetings. For a defensive coach that specializes in taking away your best weapon, Belichick failed in 2020. Jackson has improved since those matchups and has taken the number one corner position with grace. But this is a bonafide stud he’s going against. Jackson hasn’t quite had that opportunity yet this year, being robbed of it versus Atlanta with Calvin Ridley‘s mental health break. This is a real test for Jackson, who may still need help over the top from all-pro safety Devin McCourty.
Also, don’t forget about Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley. Diggs might be the matchups nightmare, but those two can torch a defense as good as the rest of them. And they have a signal-caller who isn’t afraid to take a shot. Jalen Mills should match up well with Beasley, but Manny Sanders could get lost in the mix if the Patriots aren’t ready for it.
Key #2: Contain Josh Allen In The Pocket
This is going to be a frustrating day for the Pats’ defense. Not only do they have to worry about not getting torched by Stefon Diggs, but quarterback Josh Allen is a threat in more ways than one. Allen’s ability in the open field is as good as any other quarterback in the league. He’s an athletic tank, one unseen since the prime of Cam Newton. He can make defenders miss and simply just bulldoze through them. Keeping Allen contained in the pocket and forcing him to make his reads and letting the pass rush hit naturally and not have to chase around the dynamic 25-year-old is going to be a major key if the Pats are going to make this statement win.
Key #3: Don’t Get Passive On Offense
It’s easy to see Josh McDaniels look at this offense and say “just play not to lose” if the defense takes care of the first two keys. It’s a big game, in primetime, with everybody watching as the AFC playoff picture continues to unravel. But the Patriots cannot make the mistake of just trying to be clean, and not take some shots. This Bills team can and probably will sneak up on you if the door is left open. So the Patriots need to keep the pedal to the floor.
I’m not saying let Jones just chuck it deep to Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, or Kendrick Bourne on first down every time, but McCorkle is going to have some key opportunities to put this game away. And the matchup could very well be in their favor at big moments in this game as the Bills are missing their elite defensive back Tre’Davious White for the rest of the season. They’ll need to take advantage when given the opportunity. Get a run game going, it’ll be tough versus the fifth-ranked Bills defense. It’ll be even tougher through the air as Buffalo’s pass defense is even better, ranked first. But complacency will be the death of this team in this game if they need a game-sealing drive, which I’m willing to bet they’ll have the chance to complete.
X-Factor: Jalen Mills
We went in-depth on the importance of J.C. Jackson vs Stefon Diggs, but Jalen Mills versus the tag team of Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley is just as important. The Patriots’ pass defense has been overall successful this year. They’re ranked seventh and have only let up one game where the passer has gone over 300 yards. Given, that one game was against the talented Dallas Cowboys, where they gave up over 400, but the defense is stingy as ever. Mills is a huge part of that. He’s been a great addition to this secondary and has proven his worth since the injury to Jonathan Jones. He’s always good for a key breakup or a tight coverage moment in the big spot. He’ll need to be reliable again versus a Bills team that can’t efficiently run the football.
Closing Thoughts
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If the Patriots win this game, I think they turn from “contenders” to “favorites” for the Super Bowl virtually overnight. Going into one of the rowdiest stadiums in football, in primetime, with all the marbles on the table, and taking the win. It’ll be hard to stop the media heads from continuing to pitch the potential for a rematch of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in Los Angeles. Though the Patriots can’t get ahead of themselves, as they’ll be looking at two more tough games coming out of next week’s bye going to Indianapolis to play the Colts, who beat the breaks off Buffalo two weeks ago. Then meeting Buffalo again in Foxboro. This game is absurdly important, but the job is far from finished.
The Patriots haven’t given me a reason not to pick them to take this game though. They’ve kept it close in every game they lost. And they haven’t lost since mid-October. Meanwhile, Buffalo, though still as dynamic as ever, has two eyebrow-raising losses on their resume against Jacksonville, and getting smoked versus Indy. Until Belichick gives me a reason not to pick him, I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. Even against a team as talented as this one.
Final Score: 32-28, New England (9-4)
