For a second consecutive year, it feels like we have a very wide-open field in the NBA. In the East? Miami, amidst another season plagued with injuries, is at the top of the conference without a string of healthy games to speak of. Brooklyn is (kind of) bringing Kyrie Irving back into the fold to recreate their three-headed monster of superstars. The reigning NBA champions are having a “down” season, and are sitting in fourth place with Giannis Antetokounmpo playing some of the best basketball of his already Hall of Fame-caliber career.
Chicago spent the first third of the season in pole position, and common sense indicates they will make another run. At some point, Philadelphia wants to trade Ben Simmons for a star to pair with Joel Embiid, who just put up a 50-point masterpiece in less than 30 minutes. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Darius Garland look young, hungry, and dangerous.
Out West? In the Western Conference the reigning champion Suns and Chris Paul feel like they’re as talented as anyone, and out to prove last year was not a fluke… but they’ve lost twice to the Golden State Warriors. Steph Curry and Co. not only sit, familiarly, near the top… they just welcomed Klay Thompson back. Both of those teams have great records, but does anyone really think LeBron James is averaging 28.5, 7.5, and 6.5 to just scrape by? A big trade-deadline move for the Lakers feels inevitable, and Anthony Davis should return in February (if not before). And none of those teams want to catch the scorching Ja Morant and Memphis Grizzlies on a wrong day or see reigning MVP Nikola Jokic in Denver on a tough trip through the Mountain Time Zone.
In short, the NBA champion feels unknown. There are new faces and old heroes, and someone will have their names added to history books this June. Lots of analysts, gamblers, and others will spend the next couple of months telling you who WILL win the 2022 NBA Championship… but who needs it?
The Case for Giannis
If Giannis retired at this moment, he’d have an interesting argument to be a Hall of Famer. Presently, he’s got two MVP awards, a title, and a Finals MVP. On the surface, that’s as good as all but a handful of other Power Forwards to ever play the game. Short of Tim Duncan, the “peak” Giannis we have seen could argue his way over the top of most other Power Forwards. Kevin Garnett? Giannis was MVP of the title he won. Dirk Nowitzki? Giannis has two MVPs to Dirk’s one. Charles Barkley or Karl Malone? Giannis has the bling.
Weirdly, all of that might sell him short. The performance Giannis had in the Finals is one of the best individual performances in the history of the NBA. Days after bending his knee backward, Antetokounmpo had 50 points and 14 rebounds to seal Game 6 of the NBA Finals. In between? He blocked a game-winning dunk after making the would-be-assister pick up their dribble. In the series, Giannis averaged 35.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game. He dominated the series, start to finish.
Giannis NEEDS It
But that NBA season as a whole left a lot to be desired. Days before it started, Klay Thompson went down with a second season-ending injury in as many years. Jamal Murray, Robin to MVP Nikola Jokic’s Batman, tore his ACL shortly after the Nuggets made a major trade for Aaron Gordon at the deadline. The defending champion Lakers had a number of injuries, including multiple to Anthony Davis. In the playoffs, you saw Milwaukee’s Eastern Conference weakened by a Kyrie Irving ankle injury, a James Harden hamstring injury, a Trae Young ankle injury, and a Jaylen Brown wrist injury. Injuries play a factor in every season, but the expedited 2021 season, which started almost exactly three months after the 2020 Bubble ended, seemed to have a lot.
Without even factoring in players out due to Covid protocols, the 2021 season felt like a year of WojBombs about injured players.
Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo had a historic playoff run. But if there are even just two-thirds as many injuries, do the Bucks pull it off?
Giannis will always have to prove to that crowd that he can win a title against a healthier and more competitive field. No one can question his dominance in the Finals, but how he get there? That will always draw some level of ire. Giannis got to play the three-headed monster Brooklyn Nets with one and a half heads. He didn’t see the same Trae Young that turned Madison Square Garden into his personal stage. And while the Phoenix Suns starting lineup was intact, they themselves got to play a Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers, a Jamal Murray-less Nuggets, and a hobbled Anthony Davis in the first round. Were they really a formidable Finals opponent?
How Can it Happen?
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s career is interesting in that he has played better each season even though he was the NBA MVP in 2018-19. There’s an argument to be made that, had he not won the award that year, he would have won the 2019-20 and 2020-21. There’s Giannis-for-MVP fatigue holding him back from winning a third.
If Giannis continues to play at an MVP level, the Bucks will always have a shot. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton is averaging 19.6 points, 5.2 assists, and 5.6 rebounds per game. That makes for one of the best stat lines in his career. Jrue Holiday is in a similar boat, and it feels like Milwaukee is poised to make a run at repeating.
The biggest difference is their competition. That Miami team they swept games last year? They’ve reloaded by adding Champion Kyle Lowry and Milwaukee’s dog-pound General P.J. Tucker. Chicago has added three key starters in less than a calendar year and sits atop the conference. Theoretically, the road for Milwaukee will be much, much tougher.
If Milwaukee started the playoffs today, they would be the fifth seed… and thus, they’d have to steal a road game in each series.
More Milwaukee, and Giannis, to win a title this year, it will likely take him being better than an MVP. His nightly 29 and 11 on 33 minutes will have to elevate to 34 or 35 and 14 in 38 or 40 minutes. Simply: he’s going to have to dominate. The Bucks unlocked point-center Giannis in key moments of last year’s playoffs, with Tucker and Bobby Portis in the corners to space the floor. Can they add a sharpshooting small-ball four? Can Pat Connaughton play well enough defensively to be that guy? The answer for Milwaukee will lay in the periphery opening up their focus: Giannis is (arguably) the best player on the planet. The Bucks go as he goes.
What if he Does?
Giannis Antetokunmpo is a bonafide star, but if he adds a second title (and presumably a Finals MVP)? Then he’s at least the second greatest Power Forward to ever play the game. He would have won more than Dirk. Won more than Garnett. Won more than Malone. He’d have done it without super teams, and he was always the focal point. After Tim Duncan, he would be the greatest Power Forward, in terms of both winning and individual dominance.
Giannis would also become the unassailable greatest European player ever, and in the conversation with Olajuwon for greatest international NBA Player ever. That belt being passed to Giannis, a Greek child of Nigerian immigrants, is important. So many equate “foreign player” with “white player,” that guys like Olajuwon, Joel Embiid, and Dikembe Mutumbo get “othered” or even “Americanized.” But Olajuwon has two titles, an MVP, and one of the NBA’s only quadruple doubles. Embiid reinvented the Center position and dominates the NBA in his early 20s. Mutumbo is one of two players to ever win four Defensive Player of the Year awards, and he won it with three different teams. Each of them overcame their own struggle and journey to get to the United States to play in the NBA.
But ask a layperson about the best international NBA player? They go to Dirk, Pau Gasol, or Nikola Jokic. It’s not that those guys aren’t great (they all are), it’s that there’s more to the international game than Europe. That Giannis can serve as a different face and representation within the construct of a European basketball player is significant. It changes the conversation.
And what’s crazier? Giannis is just 27-years-old. This is an argument for him needing to win the 2022 title, but truthfully he can bolster the resume similarly in 2023, 2024, 2025…
And if he wins in 2022? He can add a third, and really cement a one-of-a-kind resume, in 2023, 2024, 2025…
For more on sports, sneakers, and fandom, follow me @painsworth512 for more. Give our podcast “F” In Sports a listen wherever you listen to podcasts! Be sure to check our NEW weekly basketball show, The Midweek Midrange, on YouTube,Twitter, and Instagram!
