Here’s the beautiful thing about being a sports fan: there’s always a “next.” There’s a next season, a next coach, a next superstar. And amidst the Houston Rockets rebuild, the word “next” has been thrown around a lot.
It’s hard to contextualize, but the Houston Rockets were up 1-0 on the eventual NBA Champion LA Lakers just 18 months ago. The Rockets have been through a lot of nexts in that 18 months. As we’ve mentioned before, this is a franchise with just three seasons below .500 between drafting Hakeem Olajuwon (1984) and James Harden’s exit (January 2021). Going through two seasons with less than 20-wins has been challenging. But there is a next… that next comes as early as June 23rd, when Houston looks to draft the next piece of the Rockets dynasty they’re building.
Houston projects to have a 52% chance to have a top-four pick, and if they have the worst record in the league the pick cannot fall out of the top-five. While the Houston Rockets will weirdly benefitted twice now from a rule change made 3 years ago, fans are salivating over the potential picks in this year’s NCAA tournament. Every analyst has a different order, but the players in the top-four picks feel set.
So, after a weekend of basketball, how did those potential Rockets do? Are there any clear fits?
Savior Smith?
The Weekend
Over the weekend, Auburn prospective pro Jabari Smith tallied 30 points and 29 rebounds as the Tigers went 1-1. That raw stat line isn’t a problem in and of itself, but it also isn’t indicative of the weekend Smith had, either.
In Round One, against an overmatched Jacksonville State, the world saw the potential star Smith can be. He played just 33 minutes, shot an efficient six-of-thirteen from the field, and was able to go four-of-seven from deep. Defensively, Smith dominated the glass. When he caught the ball at the top of the key, he was as deadly with a three-point shooter as he was in flipping a quick entry pass into the flex-cutter. But the highlight of Jabari Smith’s weekend was a pro-level posterizing dunk he had after following a miss.
But against Miami? The 6’10” 220 lbs. forward struggled to get past the layered defense of the Canes. After fighting to catch the ball, Smith then had to beat one or two defenders before meeting another at the rim. The effort clearly wore out Smith, even if he did have a much more impressive day as a rim protector. And the increased energy as a rim protector also led to Smith being on the wrong end of another March Madness poster.
The Fit
While Smith is still moldable clay as a player, the fit in Houston is very clear after his game in the first two games. In a three “guard” lineup, Smith fits in as the forward opposite a big like Alperen Şengün. They can both set up in double-drag sets offensively, they can both guard more traditional bigs, and they both have encouraging jump shots. As a franchise, Houston would hope that either guy, if not both, becomes a reliable threat from beyond the arch. Potentially, Smith is a perfect match with what Houston is building.
If that’s his ceiling, the bigger issue with Smith would be where his floor hits. Smith had moments of explosive passion but on the whole? He’s going to carry the entire team’s water on his own. He led the Auburn Tigers in points this season, but the team also had three other players getting over 11 points a game. Smith was a dominating presence because of his size, but he also played alongside seven-foot-one Walker Kessler. He stretched the floor, but he also had a point guard who shot over 36-percent from three.
In the tournament, being the number one option against a scrappy Miami team in a second game in three days clearly wore Smith out. While he will get better with his conditioning over time, it’s fair to wonder how much of the load he will handle. Pros play 82 games across roughly six months. The games are longer. The players are tougher defenders. There will be times along his rookie contract that Smith is the same kind of worn out.
What’s nice about Smith’s fit in Houston is that, if Jalen Green and Şengün are your Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol 1-2 punch, Smith is someone that is allowed to have that off night offensively so long as he can still protect the rim defensively. Miami wasn’t able to put him in space defensively as he will be at the next level, but his motor clearly lasted longer on the defensive end than it did on the offensive one. Even after a hard weekend of basketball, Smith clearly fought to be an active part of the Auburn defense.
Home Run Holmgren?
The Weekend
In the first round, Gonzaga freshman phenom Chet Holmgren had the best game of any of the prospective top four picks. 19 points, 17 rebounds, 7 blocks, 5 assists, and 2 steals is an incredibly impressive game, but he did it all in just 29 minutes. When playing against athletes who weren’t big enough to manhandle him, Holmgren was the best player in the country. After Thursday, it felt like Holmgren was crowned the unanimous number one pick, regardless of what team had the selection. Early in game two versus Memphis and star big man Jalen Duren, Holmgren had significantly more trouble.
Holmgren fought to battle with the 6’11” 250 lbs post, but was visibly worn down by the second half. Duren initiated contact with Holmgren, got him off balance, and easily got the long shot-blocking freshman into foul trouble. Holmgren did eventually foul out with just nine points to his name, nine rebounds, four steals, and two blocks.
But for future pro opponents, many of whom are closer to Duren’s size than Holmgren’s, the playbook was clear: you beat Chet Holmgren by using his high motor against him. You wear him out and hope he doesn’t have Drew Timme or Andrew Nembhard alongside him to cover up the shortcomings on offense.
The Fit
Much like the aforementioned Smith, the nice thing about pairing Holmgren with Şengün and Green is that if that pair is what they project to be, Holmgren can get away without having to be a transformative player. But there is a world where he is that cornerstone big, gains twenty pounds and gets to seven-foot 215 lbs., and Houston’s drafted a big three in a span of 11 months. Whether his frame can do that will come down to some team nutritionist and trainers making evaluations… but can that trio play on the floor?
In short, yes. The yo-yo of a double-drag with Şengün and Holmgren could be perfect for the type of offense Silas has run with each iteration of the Houston Rockets roster. Alperen Şengün will continue to work on his three-point jumpshot, but they both offer different ways to attack a defense from the same areas. A coverage has to simultaneously deal with the strong base of Şengün hitting the block and Holmgren’s combination of craftiness and length. Both can catch it in the midrange and create secondary offense both as a scorer and a passer, but the way in which they attack the rim vary. And if Şengün’s three-pointer catches up, both can pop out to catch the three. Defenses will have to evaluate all of that while dealing with Jalen Green attacking downhill, off of that pair of screens, with elite NBA speed.
All of Silas’ gadgets, like running a “Spain-esque” set off of a Horns set, also benefits from having two versatile bigs. The empty side pick and roll the Rockets have run lately? Both the star version and the role player version of Chet Holmgren can run that, as presently built, effectively with Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün.
Is it Clearly Ivey?
The Weekend
As the lone sophomore in the group, what jumps off the screen when watching Jaden Ivey is his improved three-point shooting. As a freshman, he shot 26-percent from beyond the arc on four attempts a night. This season, he’s at 36.4-percent on nearly five. In the tournament? He’s shooting 50-percent from three.
It’s not that Ivery projects to be Stephen Curry, but his improved three-point shooting opens up everything else he does. Where Ivey is at his best is when he is attacking the basket. After getting shut down for a half, his first basket in the Round of 32 came on a quick slash and big dunk. Later, Ivey’s speed and quick change of direction threw a defending Courtney Ramey off balance and allowed him to set up for an open dagger three. When Ivey couldn’t shoot? That move wasn’t a threat. The defense didn’t give up that back cut. But now? It’s pick your poison, and the defense couldn’t be right.
Texas’ blitz in the first half was concerning for Ivey Idealists. Texas got after him physically, and the layered defense forced him to give up the ball. His teammates got Purdue in the game, then took the lead, and when Texas had to adjust at halftime Ivey’s game opened back up. If you were picking nits, one would have to be that Ivey was effectively shut down in 20 minutes of basketball before he exploded in the second half.
The Fit
In Houston, Ivey would join a crowded guard room. While Houston will likely try to move on from Dennis Schröder and Eric Gordon, that is still four other guards under 22 who need the ball in their hands to be effective. That’s a lot of touches, but Ivey may be the second best player in the room. If Houston started Ivey and Green, a pair of combo guards, they’d have strong shooting and electric attacking at both guard spots. If they also start Kevin Porter Jr. as a third guard? Ivey’s jumper spaces the floor well enough to open up space for all the slashing.
If Houston thinks Kevin Porter Jr. is their long term starting point guard, Ivey doesn’t fit the same need as other top prospects. But KPJ can be a Manu Ginobili type of sixth man? The Houston Rockets offense could be strong. The rotation would mean two of Ivey, Porter Jr., and Green will be on the floor at all times. It also will see minutes of small ball with Joshua Christopher and Daishen Nix for sparks of energy.
The fit in a three-guard starting lineup doesn’t feature Ivey’s best assets, but it does open up space for KPJ and Green’s. As a tertiary attacker, and a true shooting threat, he becomes a more consistent, healthier, younger, and more explosive version of the Eric Gordon role as it stands. And in a two-guard lineup? Assuming the wing input is another shooter, Houston is rotating a slew of combo guards and fresh legs through their pair of attacking spots.
In the 21 series, which the Houston Rockets have run more as the year has gone on, both the guard on the attack off of the screen and the guard prepared to catch the kick out can punish a defense that over-rotates to one or the other.
This pick makes the most sense if Houston can move Eric Gordon to a contender, and thus replace his minutes and usage with a (more frequently available) player that matches the current timeline for success. If they can’t move Gordon? It’s hard to figure out where the minutes come from.
Ivey’s ceiling is notably higher than Gordon’s, but in the present tense he can plug and play in that role. There’s a world where in 2025, the Ivey and Green backcourt is akin to Chris Paul and Devin Booker, with 6th Man of the Year candidate Kevin Porter Jr. serving a Manu Ginobili role. There’s also a world where the 2025 Houston Rockets have too many guards and are trying to swap one of Porter Jr., Christopher, Nix, or Ivey for a wing they didn’t draft in the years proceeding.
Paolo Propaganda?
The Weekend
Of the projected picks, Paolo Banchero had the best weekend. The six-foot-eleven 250 lbs. freshman had 36 points, 17 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 blocks across the two games. Duke handled Cal-State Fullerton as they should have and held off a tough Michigan State team in the Round of 32. But hidden within those box scores is the urge to dominate that made Banchero get the spotlight.
Duke’s divine mission to send Hall of Fame coach Mike Kryzewski out on a high note has fallen on Banchero’s broad shoulders. As the game wound down, and Michigan State appeared to be making a run, Banchero took matters into his own hands.
Down the stretch, Banchero initiated the offense. He was taking rebounds off of the rim, dribbling up the floor and into jumpers, blocking shots, and fighting for loose balls.
The Fit
In Houston, Banchero slides in as an immediate starter. Of the forwards atop this draft, he is the readiest built to play through the grind of an NBA season. Banchero looks more like an NBA player physically than several players on the Houston Rockets do currently.
Where he fits on the floor with Alperen Şengün will depend on which develops a more reliable jump shot. There are games, like a late-season matchup with Syracuse, where Banchero made four of seven from beyond the arc. He also has games like the loss to North Carolina where he made just one of five. If either Banchero or Şengün can settle in and become a 35-percent three-point shooter, or better, the duality of their size becomes a strength. But if not, and defenders can sag off and cut off drives from Jalen Green without being punished, the pair doesn’t really work. Neither one has an obvious mechanical issue in their shot, and if anything Banchero’s catch and shoot motion looks smooth. But Houston will need to evaluate if the two can play together or if they will clog the lane.
Assuming the answer is the former, Houston is in dire need of guys that “seize the moment” in their young core. Jalen Green has shown it in spurts. Şengün has dominated stretches. But can picking Banchero put them over the said edge?
In the Houston Rocket’s current sets, Banchero with a jumper occupies a similar space to Christian Wood. Especially if the jump shot develops as it should, Banchero can run all of the same sets and he adds nearly 40 lbs of muscle as he does it. Those drives off of the short roll? Banchero is a freight train. The b-line roll to the rim? Banchero is flying through defenders to the cup, literally.
Defensively, Banchero’s strength in combination with his height and length makes him a tougher matchup as well. It’s not that Banchero is a feared rim protector yet. It’s that he has all the tools to become one. Wood’s vertical contests leave his thin frame vulnerable. Şengün’s still working on his gallop and leap from the offside to contest at the rim from an offensive player outside the arc.
Early Verdict?
Too Early to Tell
Call it a cop-out; and admittedly Jabari Smith is out of the tournament. But Houston needs to do more than just evaluate the tournament. And some of that doesn’t have anything to do with the pick at all.
Houston has a handful of big roster questions to answer. Christian Wood is an Unrestricted Free Agent in the summer of 2023, and his value will quickly dwindle as a year of him will become a few-month rental. If Houston moves on from him, they may feel more inclined to draft a forward. But if they don’t? If they think he’s worth close to, if not over, $20 Million? They probably would rather draft a young guard and try to figure out some offense that fits Wood and Şengün.
Similarly, Kevin Porter Jr. is a Restricted Free Agent the same summer. That does mean Houston can match any offer made and keep Porter Jr., but it also means they’ll need some value set in their mind. Some of his antics may hurt his value, but Porter Jr. has clearly been able to score the ball and be a combo guard that runs your offense. If they think they’re going to throw him a large extension, or are willing to re-sign him for a high value, will they draft yet another guard? Between Porter Jr., Green, Josh Christopher, and Daishen Nix, Houston’s creative guard room is very crowded.
And if Houston thinks they can really keep both and be a successful team, it’s hard to figure out who you’d draft in this top four. Do you trade out or back?
While the third option is unlikely, the Houston Rockets have to have that sort of a plan before they make a plan in the draft. The Houston Rockets had a great draft a year ago and gave fans reason to be enthusiastic about their scouting, but a season of “figuring the roster out” has gone on long enough. You’ve seen two years of Wood, a year of Porter Jr. at point guard. It’s teeth-cutting time, and the Houston Rockets have big decisions to make in the next 16 months. How they draft will help shed light on what those plans are.
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1 Comment
Excellent article! Rockets have some decisions to make.