The Houston Rockets have come out of All-Star weekend with multiple, consecutive losses. They have a handful of sprained ankles, and morale appears to be pretty low. While Houston Rockets news stories cover things like a new haircut for Kevin Porter Jr., or a well-written article by Kelly Iko about Jalen Green’s development, that is the limit of “good” news. In many ways, we’re hitting the “when is it over?” button just as early as a year ago.
That’s not to say the young guys don’t offer good news. There have been moments Jalen Green has absolutely taken over, which leaves fans wondering why other guys get to iso more. Dennis Schrӧder has come in and fit right in, but he’s not the young point guard Houston wants to develop. Alperen Şengün has quickly become one of the best young big men in the NBA, but isn’t starting at center. The Houston Rockets have some good news, but they can’t seem to put it together without also adding in too much of the “bad news.”
Small Rotation Issues
Admittedly, head coach Stephen Silas has had trouble with rotations. Adding Schrӧder in the mix has unequivocally helped Green. Green is visibly much more comfortable as a secondary ball-handler who catches the ball in triple-threat or moving downhill from the free-throw line extended area. It allows him a multitude of options, the ability to change gears, and he’s got a killer midrange shot off the bounce. That’s not to say Schrӧder is the offensive answer; Houston as a team has a better offensive rating with him off of the floor. But seeing his style paired with Green has offered great insight.
But at what cost? Houston’s Josh Christopher and Kevin Porter Jr. also play the point alongside Green and there are a finite amount of minutes in a game. Even if that’s the style of play that pairs best with Green, it will be hard to build a rotation that maximizes that and plays Christopher and Porter Jr. any amount of developable time. The issue then becomes one of the goals: what does Houston want to do?
Christopher looks more and more like a steal of the last draft as he grows, but he also gets the least run of the trio. Green has the highest ceiling, but he is flourishing alongside the oldest guy who also has the shortest contract. Houston needs to figure out if they’re going to extend Porter Jr., and for how much, but he’s as early in his development as anyone.
And that’s just in the backcourt.
Big Rotation Issues
In the frontcourt, the Houston Rockets have run into a wall. Christian Wood is, arguably, the best player in the present tense. But his backup, Alperen Şengün, may be the Rocket of the future. But they apparently cannot play on the floor at the same time. Houston scores 12.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than their opponents when Şengün and Wood are on the floor. Even when the two seemed to have found their rhythm together against Utah, there were chunks of the game where Wood was limited in his impact on the drive because Şengün’s defender could sag off of him. There were other possessions where Şengün would be attempting to dribble-handoff into a pistol action but Wood preferred to catch and isolate.
With both bigs on the floor, Houston’s offense gets stagnant. The driving lanes are shortened because Şengün and Wood are not able to spread the floor the way a shooter like Garrison Mathews can. That’s predictable, and will fix itself as Şengün and Wood both get better on the outside. But another issue is painfully obvious: Şengün plays best in an offense built on ball movement, Wood prefers isolating matchups. Defensively, Şengün plays firmly with his chest and Wood dances with his toes. When playing defense in the low post, Şengün is clearly better. Along the perimeter? The answer is Wood. But when you “can’t” play both of them, Houston is struggling with when to play either.
Sometimes Wood, as the starter, is getting roughly ten minutes more than Şengün. In others? Wood’s minutes are nearly double that of “Al P.” For all of the talk of trying to move Wood at the deadline, he hasn’t moved out of the lineup much at all.
The detrimental impact here isn’t because Christian Wood isn’t good; he is. But he doesn’t mesh with Şengün, Green, or the other young players. Wood is dangerous as a multi-level roller, but as the season has progressed he’s reverted back to being an isolation heavy stretch-big. He doesn’t shoot at an efficient enough clip to be called a wing. He isn’t strong enough to dominate as a post player inside. But in games like Orlando, or the first of two against LA this week, Woods interrupts runs to get his own bucket. Whether it’s Green, Mathews, or Kenyon Martin Jr., Wood has become someone who will opt to attack for his own basket instead of continuing to feed the hot hand.
This immature decision from one of Houston’s oldest rotational players is visually stunning on screen, even when it works. Against Utah, Wood was the conventional hero. He had two threes in the final few minutes of regulation to force overtime. But the possessions? At the 2:35 mark, Wood broke off of a set to shoot a step-back three on the right-wing. Is that his favorite area, per his shooting chart? Sure. Did it go in? Yes. Is it a great play?..
Similarly, Wood’s three-point shot at the end of regulation went in and forced overtime. But the play? Wood slips out of a screen before ever even setting it. Wood lifts to the top of the key to set up a screen for Porter Jr., who could then theoretically come off for his own left-wing three, hit Green in the left corner for his three, or hit a popping Wood (theoretically back in his right-wing area) for three. Each player, in their favorite spots to shoot threes per NBA.Com shooting stats, with options for who on the Houston Rockets gets to be the hero. It was a brilliant set! But Wood never sets the screen, gets the ball after his defender doubles Porter with time winding down, and shoots it. It goes in, forces OT… but was it a good play?
Green can beat his man twice in a row and as they’re going through the same hammer screen to free him up Wood will attack on the opposite baseline. Mathews will hit two threes, and Wood will reject the third dribble-handoff to get himself in the lane. The pattern here is alarming, and a couple of big makes against the Jazz appear to be the outliers.
Will it Change?
Time will tell. The Houston Rockets have less than 20 games to go, and they may begin slowly shutting down vets. But if the goal is to move Christian Wood over the summer, or before the next deadline, he needs to play well just like he did before the last deadline. And to his credit, if he wants a big payday in the 2023 offseason, he probably does need to rack up some individual stats to boost his case. As does Eric Gordon.
Dennis Schrӧder is in a similar boat. Everyone remembers how he ditched the Lakers in search of more money last summer, and it stands to reason he will look for the same this off-season. But in order to do that, he’s going to continue to try to make plays in Houston.
Houston trying to develop young talent while showcasing veteran pieces has been an interesting experiment. It didn’t lead to much movement at the trade deadline, but The Athletic’s Kelly Iko indicated that Houston was involved in a handful of potentially big moves that fell through. Had the Lakers agreed to swap Russell Westbrook for Wall and a 2027 First Round Pick, would it be different? Had Eric Gordon headed out for a First Round Pick from his handful of suitors, does Houston’s grade change? The saying goes “if wishes were fishes no man would starve,” but Houston was certainly throwing the lure in the water, and had their share of nibbles.
The player that’s interesting here is Kevin Porter Jr. KPJ is all but certain to get his team option this summer for next season. But what’s the dollar amount on an extension? Does Houston feel comfortable enough to, after roughly 80 games in Houston, throw him a lot of money? Are they more cautious after his halftime walk out? How much trust do they have in the John Lucas process?
Time will tell, but I’d imagine all players with financial question marks get priority. As has been the main objective for the Tilman Fertitta administration, any chance at a cheaper roster will take precedent. And that type of decision comes from the top down.
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