It isn’t too long ago that the AFC East was routinely derided for the level of competition that it offered to the Pats. As recently as the 2019 season, New England was able to finish comfortably on top, ahead of the Bills, while both the Dolphins and Jets languished with their familiar losing records.
But right now, NFL bettors checking out the BestOdds site will find that three teams from the AFC East are in the top eight in the AFC Championship Winners market, including the favorites, the Buffalo Bills, the sixth-ranked Miami Dolphins, and in eighth place, New England.
The combined win-loss record for teams in the AFC East is an impressive 23-12. In fact, only the NFC East can boast better numbers, but even though that division has produced a 24-9 record, it isn’t as competitive as the AFC East, which is the only division in the NFL to feature four teams over .500. So what happened? How has the competitive pecking order in the AFC been subverted?
AFC West Decline
Going into this season, many expected the AFC West to be the strongest division in the conference. The Kansas City Chiefs have certainly maintained their high standards, but the big challenges from the Broncos and the Raiders have not materialized. Denver is 3-5, and the Raiders are 2-6, while the Chargers are struggling for consistency, which has opened up AFC Wild Card opportunities for the rest of the conference, including the in-form contenders in the East.
Bills Maintain Their Level
The first sign that the AFC East was getting tougher came with the steady improvement of the Buffalo Bills. They finished second and earned Wild Cards in 2017 and 2019, and finally broke through in 2020, winning the division on their way to the AFC Championship game and defending their title last season. With Josh Allen, they have possibly the best quarterback in the NFL and have been an impressively dominant team in recent months. And yet, they have just lost to the perennial no-hopers from New York.
Jets Ahead of Schedule
Season after season, the Jets flopped, never threatened to approach .500, blew their draft capital, and then did it all over again. Along with the Dolphins, they were annual proof that the draft system of leveling the playing field did not always work. And yet, finally, they seem to have combined a good draft with a solid coaching setup and a promising quarterback. Out of nowhere, they have become a defensively elite, battling playoff contender with lots of upside.
Dolphins Getting Better
The Jets’ resurgence has almost overtaken the Dolphins’ revival, which had been long predicted. A similar level of organizational ineptitude had held Miami back, but after consecutive winning seasons under Brian Flores, they are building a strong challenge under first-time head coach Mike McDaniel, who is guiding them into the position of being legitimate future rivals for the Bills, thanks mainly to an elite-level passing game that leads the NFL in passing yards.
What This Means for the Patriots
In the short term, it means that the Pats can be 5-4, yet bottom of the division. After years of having limited or non-existent divisional opposition, some NFL fans may see that as a turning of the wheel of fortune or just the draft mechanism finally kicking in to keep things competitive.
As it stands, the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins all have playoff places, but that is unlikely sustainable to the end of the season, and even with the extended Wild Card format, the Pats are less than a 50/50 chance to make the postseason at this point.
The remaining schedule for the Pats does not provide too much encouragement. They have four games remaining against divisional opponents, but that includes both of their games against the Bills, and realistically, they probably need to win three, but definitely two of the four. Outside of the divisional games, the Cardinals and Raiders matchups look like good opportunities, but the Vikings and Bengals are still in the reckoning for the playoffs and will be tough opponents.
With the Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe issue apparently resolved and back-to-back wins achieved, the Pats at least have a stronger foundation to approach the remainder of the season. But ultimately, New England is going to have to get used to being in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions and find new ways to gain an advantage over their resurgent rivals.
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