It’s been a while since the Pats have beaten Buffalo without inclement weather being a factor. Matter of fact, the Bills haven’t been forced to punt since the week 13 match-up last year. Where the wind was so insane, the Patriots only attempted three throws with Mac Jones.
This likely won’t be a repeat of those conditions. Though at the same time, I can’t see a world where the Pats can’t force a punt. The Bills, as good as they are, have hit some turbulence. Losing to Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago (not that the Patriots were much better on Thanksgiving). Having to duke it out with the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, barely escaping with a victory. Now they’re dealing with illnesses and injuries across the defense and offensive line. In particular, superstar edge rusher Von Miller will be missing this game after a knee injury.
New England doesn’t have it easy, but this is probably the best opportunity they’re going to have to beat the Bills. As they whip out the red jerseys one more time, we’ll take a look at how Mac Jones and company can defeat their divisional rival and keep their slim AFC East championship dreams. Without further delay, set it up, Folk! Let’s get this matchup underway.
3 Keys to The Game
Key #1: Manage Josh Allen
To be blunt, there’s no way to stop the Bills’ superstar signal caller. He’s got a cannon of an arm. He can make all of the throws at any point of the game, anywhere on the field. But he has looked a bit shaky in recent weeks. Throwing seven interceptions in the past five games. Sure, that’s matched with nine touchdowns. But there’s room for the Patriots to take over. The Jets locked him up, holding him to zero scores and securing the win. Now was that just a bad day from Allen or a good day for the Jets? Up for discussion. But Josh Allen in recent weeks has shown a tendency to give the ball away. The Patriots gotta take advantage and not let Allen get hot.
Key #2: 60 minutes of offense
The Pats’ offense looked like a totally different unit on Thanksgiving. Mac Jones threw for a career-high in passing yards, Hunter Henry finally got involved, and the pass protection held up… for all but one quarter. The fourth quarter. The Patriots last week showed that they can hang. Even if that Vikings’ defense was suspect, we at least saw the ability to put up points. We hadn’t seen that all year.
The Patriots are struggling with possibly the most important part of the game though. They can’t make the “gotta have it” moments. Mac Jones has one fourth-quarter comeback in his career. Against a bad Texans team last year. Since then? A lot of moral victory fourth quarter, but no signature moment. The Pats need one, and what better time than a big-time divisional match-up in primetime with one of the best teams in the NFL? A full 60-minute effort is necessary tonight. It’s just a question of if they have the guts to do it.
Key #3: Be smart
The Patriots shot themselves in the foot all night on thanksgiving. Two facemask penalties from Jonathan Jones, a running into the kicker on Pierre Strong, Mac Jones taking a HUGE sack on third and eight in the fourth quarter, as well as clock mismanagement on the same drive. This was as must-win as it got and despite playing overall pretty well, they shot themselves in the foot. For once, it was the brains and not the talent, that kept the Patriots back.
Obviously, this will be heavy on the mind of New England entering this high-stake matchup. The margin for error is always slim when playing a coach like Sean McDermott and a quarterback like Allen. So, if you thought giving Kirk Cousins second chances was dumb, doing it to Allen is basically game suicide.
X-Factor: Jonathan Jones
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Stefon Diggs is the next big wide receiver the Patriots are up against. Jones was stuck on Jefferson for most of the night and, despite his best efforts, got torched. As unfortunate as it is, I think Jones is going to have to take on the task again with Diggs. There’s nobody else in this secondary that can match. The six-year veteran is the best the Pats got. If he plays up and gets some help from Devin McCourty over the top maybe New England has a shot. But don’t try to zero in and forget about Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie (who torched you on Boxing Day last year).
Final Thoughts/Predictions
There are a lot of keys to this game. It was hard to narrow it down to three, but basically, if you’re a Pats fan like myself you’re looking for mistake-free football. You want Mac Jones to be put in the position to give you a chance to win the game, and then him to make good on that chance. Last week, they had chances, and they blew them. It’s not just a Jones problem, it’s a Patriots problem.
That being said, I can’t unbiasedly say the Pats win this game. But I can say that they have to win this game. They’ve put themselves in a position where a home loss to Buffalo could really kerfuffle their playoff aspirations. Assuming they won’t win in Buffalo. I expect them to compete though. That playoff wildcard loss is in the Patriots’ minds, and in Mac Jones’s locker. If the Patriots fight, they’ll have a shot. But they just haven’t shown that same it-factor that the Patriots were well-known for. You know, back in the days of Brady (which could be on the menu next year? Stay tuned).
Final Score: 35-27, Bills win (Patriots fall to 6-6)
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