Pats Preview: Week 16 vs Cincinnati Bengals

The last time these two teams met, the difference at quarterback was in favor of the Pats with Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. By a wide margin. Now? It’s totally flipped on its head. This week, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots with Mac Jones for a Christmas Eve showdown, and 2022 has gone very differently for these two teams.

The Bengals under Joe Burrow look to defend their AFC title, they’ve gone 10-4 and have secured a playoff berth after the Jets lost to the Jaguars 19-3 last night. Meanwhile, for the Pats, they’re holding on by a thread at 7-7. After giving up a must-have game to the Raiders, they now have to win out and hope for some help down the line. It’s easier said than done, with their last three games being this one, versus Miami, and at Buffalo. The Patriots are in desperation mode. With an offense that can’t get out of their own way and a defense that has been forced to pick up not just some slack, but all of it.

We’ll see if the Patriots have another “We’re onto Cincinnati” moment in their bag of tricks. They’ll need all the help they can get if they want to finish above .500, never mind make the playoffs. Set it up, Bailey. Let’s get this preview underway.

3 Keys to The Game

Key #1: Don’t get away from Rhamondre Stevenson

One of the biggest problems last week for the Patriots was how much they needlessly threw the football. Jones finished 13-31 but easily could’ve finished 13-20 had they not tried to force the ball downfield. Stevenson had a great day against a lackluster Raiders defense, but the Patriots got desperate and forced themselves to throw.

Look, this team’s strength isn’t in the passing game. The reason for that is debatable, but Stevenson could very well be a top-end running back in this league. Don’t get away from him and force yourself to get out of your comfort zone. It’s too late in the season to be experimenting and trying to force things. It’s clear a lot of work needs to be done both roster-wise and schematically. But play to your strength on this one.

Key #2: Get to Burrow

Also, easier said than done, as this Bengals’ pass protection has vastly improved from last year. But you won’t beat the Bengals with just “good coverage”. They’re absolutely loaded at the wide receiver position. Possibly the best core the Pats have played all year. This young secondary of New England won’t be able to keep Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd under wraps forever. Somebody will bust it open eventually. So, it’s on guys like Josh Uche, Matt Judon, Christian Barmore, and others to get to Burrow before the ball gets to one of their weapons. Passive defense isn’t going to bode well against this potent Cincinnati pass attack. So get after Burrow early and often.

Key #3: Don’t be dumb

It’s rare for me to ask this of a Patriots team. But it feels necessary after watching the catastrophe of last weekend in Vegas. I have quite literally never seen a Bill Belichick-coached team play that dumb. Not just that last play where Jakobi Meyers thought it’d be a cool idea to make his quarterback tackle a 6’5 260lb edge rusher in Chandler Jones on the last play of the game. How about that red zone sequence in the first half? Inside the five-yard line, against the worst goal-to-go defense in football, three pass plays were called. One was successful before Belichick called a timeout pre-snap. Then, Mac Jones sneaked it in himself, but Jonnu Smith was flagged for a false start. Never mind the blocked punt that put the Raiders up 17-3.

This is just a poorly coached, dumb football team. They’ve been playing bad, undisciplined football all year. It’s not going to work against the Bengals. So if this ship is going to be turned around, and the Pats are going to have anything to carry into 2023, they need to get out of their own way. They can’t beat themselves over and over again in these winnable games. Start now, or it won’t matter next week against Miami.

X-Factor: Marcus Jones

Judging from the situation last week, and how well Jones did against Davante Adams, it’s likely the rookie corner is going to be lined up against Chase this weekend. Marcus Jones has been a really surprising piece to this Patriots team. He has dynamic versatility playing both offense and defense while contributing as a kick returner. I think if the Patriots win this game, it’ll be in part due to Jones’ playmaking ability and he makes all kinds of stops on Chase and contributes to the game plan elsewhere in addition to his defensive responsibilities.

Final Thoughts/Predictions

It’s basically do-or-die for the Pats at this point. With seven losses, they’ve already matched last year’s total with three games to go. All against teams most people aren’t going to pick them to win against. They’ve already dropped games to Miami and Buffalo this season. The Patriots have yet to get that signature win, that nobody saw coming that rights the ship. It could have been last week after falling behind 17-3 heading into halftime, but as we all saw, that didn’t finish exactly the way we had hoped.

Unfortunately, the Patriots have shown me nothing to believe they can pull this game off. They’ll need some insane weather, a couple of key injuries on the Bengals side of things, and a whole lot of luck. You won’t win very many football games with a strategy like that. And that’s all the Pats got. This game could get ugly, and fast. But I’ll bet on them to keep it competitive. Just not going to give them the victory. Until proven otherwise, this Patriots team cannot beat the best the NFL has to offer.

Final Score: 32-20, Bengals win (Pats fall to 7-8)

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