Pats Preview: Week 18 at Buffalo Bills

Admittedly, this Pats Preview is a little different. All week it’s been hard to focus on the pivotal matchup between the Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Hell, it’s been hard to focus on any type of football. After the devastating cardiac arrest emergency that took place on Monday Night Football on January 2^nd with Bills Safety Damar Hamlin, playing this game was the least of anybody’s concerns.

We all anxiously awaited all week long for updates on Hamlin’s condition, as we witnessed him collapse and fail to get back up. We watched his teammates and Bengals opponents stare in shock as the fabulous medical staffers of the Bills worked on this 24-year-old man trying to revive him with nine gut-wrenching minutes of CPR. For a handful of days, football was the least of the NFL’s concerns.

We fast forward to today, January 6^th, and we now know that Hamlin is conscious. Doctors have called this a remarkable recovery. He has plenty of neurological function and is beginning to move his hands and feet. Hamlin’s first words, written down; “Did we win the game?”. Truly brilliant.

I hope and pray that he continues to recover, and that he can join his teammates once again in the future. But that’s well down the road of recovery. For now, he focuses on regaining his normal cognitive functions and living a normal daily life again.

Hamlin has the full support of Patriots Nation and the rest of the world. Showcased to the tune of $7.7M donated to his charity since the time of the emergency. Donors include Patriots players such as Devin McCourty, Mac Jones, Lawrence Guy, Marcus Jones, Myles Bryant, Brian Hoyer, and owner Robert Kraft. All chipping into the cause. Some things are bigger than football. How many other workplaces can you find unity in like this?

Back to the preview

Now, to the matchup at hand. The Pats’ mission doesn’t change. Win and they’ve inserted themselves into the NFL playoffs. They’ve taken total control of the 7th seed in the AFC playoff picture and control their own destiny. But the team that stands in their way has had their number in recent years. The Buffalo Bills own the Patriots since the departure of Tom Brady. Winning all but one game, a 2021 Monday Night Matchup that saw just three passing attempts by quarterback Mac Jones. Their list of wins includes last year’s playoff game. A 47-17 stomping of the once-great Patriots.

Now they meet again, with similar stakes on the line for New England. The recent playoff scenarios and what have you don’t affect the job of Bill Belichick’s team. They need to “do their job”, as their 70-year-old coach would put it. And it doesn’t get any harder than this. Walking into a rowdy Bills Stadium, who will be more motivated than ever to pick up a win against a bitter rival to close out the season. So, without further delay, set it up, Folk (or is it Palardy, or Vizcaino)! Let’s get this preview underway.

Three Keys to The Game

Key #1: Make the Bills’ offense uncomfortable

This Bills passing offense is just too potent to test. Between Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Isaiah McKenzie, there are too many weapons for the Pats to keep up with. Especially with a depleted secondary that has been tested in recent weeks. Getting Jalen Mills back will be a great addition, but it still won’t be enough. The Patriots’ defense needs to create pressure and dare them to run the football and slow the game down. New England has had trouble forcing this Josh Allen-led offense to punt. Before Week 13 they hadn’t done such a thing in two whole matchups. The fewer drives Buffalo has, the better New England stands. Get this offense on their heels and early. Josh Allen may just try to play hero ball and make a mistake. Cash in!

Key #2: Attack Buffalo’s aching pass defense

Buffalo’s pass defense is dealing with a ton of injuries as of late. Between Jordan Poyer playing on what would normally be a season-ending injury, Micah Hyde likely out for the year, Tre’Davious White still shaking off the rust after missing a ton of time, and Von Miller suffering a season-ending ACL tear, there’s a lot to attack.

The Pats will have absolutely nothing to lose by being aggressive and taking their shots. Their season is on the line for Pete’s sake. Take the leash off Jones, get Kendrick Bourne out there, and see what magic they can make happen. Now is the time for all the stops, but will Belichick, Patricia, and Judge showcase that level of trust in their second-year quarterback? A guy who’s taken a lot of fire for being immature, “douchey”, dirty, and suffering from “affluenza”. That decision could make or break their season.

Key #3: Finish your drives

The Patriots have the second most plays of 20+ yards believe it or not. Behind only the Kansas City Chiefs for the most. But it sure doesn’t feel like it, does it? That’s because in between all those big shots deep, Matt Patricia is usually calling an offense that gets off the field faster than they snap the football. The turnovers are down, but they’re also not moving the chains. If you stand a chance versus this Buffalo team on the road, the Patriots need to put points on the board.

Their defense is good, but not good enough to force Allen into mistakes like they were able to do versus Bridgewater/Thompson last week, or Colt McCoy in Arizona. They can’t bank on the Kyle Dugger pick-six, or Matt Judon forcing a strip sack. The Bills are too good. This Pats offense NEEDS to create points on their own at some point. And that is probably the biggest key to the whole game.

X-Factor: Christian Barmore

It’s easy to miss just how special Christian Barmore is sometimes. He doesn’t play a flashy position, and he’s had a rough go of it this season with the injuries. But this pass rush has turned it up another notch with the second-year defensive tackle back in the mix. Barmore creates opportunities for Judon and Josh Uche through his fierceness up the middle. He draws attention and hell, even breaks through himself sometimes.

I think getting right in Josh Allen’s face is going to be a pretty good way to pull off this upset and get in the backfield before anybody even has a chance to blink. Barmore has that ability. He’s showcased it anytime he’s been on the field. If I were Buffalo, I’d be circling number 90 as a guy we cannot afford to mishandle, because he will wreck your day to the tune of quarterback hits, tackles for losses, and sacks if you happen to sleep on him.

Closing Thoughts/Prediction

It’s hard to imagine a world where the Pats shock the world. Especially after the emotional rollercoaster that the Bills are undergoing right now. They’re going to want to pick up a win for Damar Hamlin. But those emotions could hurt just as much as they could help. Sure, Buffalo will be hellbent on getting a win for their guy. It’s what he would want. It’s that special comradery that makes NFL locker rooms so special. But could that also cause some guys to overthink it? Could some anxiety build and force guys to play outside of their game because they’re trying to win it for Hamlin? Pressure creates diamonds no doubt… But it also bursts pipes.

All season I’ve stuck with the tune that I can’t pick the Patriots in these high-stakes games against good teams, that isn’t playing a backup quarterback, until they prove to me they can win. Simply put the Pats haven’t done it yet. So, in my eyes, they’ll be scoreboard-watching the Jets and Dolphins matchup as well as the Browns and Steelers while they’re grinding this game out in Buffalo. Where an average forecast is expected on Sunday afternoon. Never say never, but the odds aren’t in their favor without any unforeseen advantage on the horizon. Give me the passionate Buffalo Bills in this one, though I expect the Pats to keep it competitive until the end. Here’s to hoping they find a way to give me at least one more game to preview.

Final Score: 30-20, Bills win (Patriots fall to 8-9)

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