Scouting Notes
- QB Type = Surgeon (see Key below for QB-Type reference)
- Great athletic build and prototypical size, but surprisingly immobile relative to Quarterbacks of similar stature.
- Deep ball accuracy and touch are unreal, CJ Stroud dropped it into the bread basket often.
- Not great all year against pressure, except for the final game.
- Experienced an odd back-step in anticipation. In 2021 he often made great anticipatory throws, but in 2022 he seemed to always wait for the open receiver.
- Despite having many questions all year, his game against Georgia was elite. He showed poise, read the field well, was shockingly mobile, great decisions, etc. He quashed nearly every concern you could have about him. Questions will remain whether that is enough.
- Looked polished and perfect at the Combine. Arrow is pointing way up.
Short Summary
Despite being highly recruited, CJ Stroud was never able to fully establish himself as the next big things. Many concerns marred his scouting reports, and until his final game as a Buckeye, nothing changed.
As written above, his Georgia game was astounding. He did everything every scout ever wanted him to do, and more. He showed traits and abilities that we previously thought he flatly didn’t have.
That’s enough for most to say he’s capable, but I am a little more skeptical. His stock rose significantly from that game in my eyes, and I see him in a much better light, but I don’t think one game is enough to completely change 2 full seasons of the opposite.
Frankly, however, I believe Stroud’s issue is a deeper one. As explained in my QB Scouting Guide, to be a great NFL Quarterback you must have elite traits of the QB Archetype that you fit into. In Stroud’s case, that’s very difficult. He clearly isn’t a Runner, and his immobility is enough to say he isn’t a Hybrid either. He could potentially become a Hybrid, but he would need to take massive steps toward becoming a more mobile Quarterback. That usually doesn’t happen.
That leaves Surgeon, which seems fitting, but he lacks traits that are necessary for a successful Surgeon QB. Anticipation and accuracy are at the top of the list, and he isn’t elite at either of those. Additionally, his pocket presence is up-and-down.
All that being said, CJ Stroud should make a good NFL Quarterback, but I’m torn on his concrete outlook. On the one hand, his whole career he didn’t look like a very dominant Surgeon, but his post-season and Combine performances make it hard to not see him as a true high-potential Surgeon.
I would bet that the tie-breaker will ultimately boil down to the team that drafts him.
Scouting Card Key
- Age refers to the age of the player come draft night, rounded to the nearest half-age.
- Percentage numbers in the Player Info and Combine Stats sections – This refers to the percentile that number belongs to among all players at his position, going back nearly a decade.
- QB Type – The QB Archetype (one of Surgeon, Runner, and Hybrid), as detailed in my QB Scouting Guide.
- GP – Games Played
- INTs – Interceptions
- AY/A – Air Yards per attempt. I always choose this stat over Y/A, since Yards per attempt can be inflated by great yards after catch plays, which are mostly unrelated to QB play.
- BTT and BTT% – Big Time Throw and Big Time Throw Rate. The rate is how many of those you completed relative to how many passes you’ve completed in total.
- TWP and TWP% – Turnover Worthy Plays. These are plays deemed by PFF Scouts and Graders to be plays that should have been a turnover, but by circumstance (a dropped Interception for example) it didn’t end up as one. (The percentile of this stat is of course the inverse, the higher the rate, the lower the percentile.)
- Adj. Comp. % – Adjusted Completion percentage. This assumes all passes that should have been caught were caught, therefore not penalizing a Quarterback too much for dropped passes.
- TTT – Time to Throw. This stat doesn’t say much about the QB play, but it gives you an insight into the situation in which a player was playing. Certain players get cushioned and never hit in college, then falter after a few NFL hits.
- P2S% – Pressure to Sack rate. This stat measures what percent of a player’s pressured plays ended in a sack. This stat helps quantify pocket mobility and pocket presence. (The percentile of this stat is of course the inverse, the higher the rate, the lower the percentile.)
- Clutch – The ability to perform in high-pressure situation, not necessarily end-of-game.
- OTN – Outside the Numbers. This is the player’s ability to throw accurately to the edges of the football field.
Credit
Advanced stats – pff.com
Scouting card template / idea – Jordan Pun @Texans_Thoughts
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