Rolling the Dice: Risky Players you can’t Ignore

When it comes to top three-round picks, the importance of hitting on the selection is crucial. Missed high draft picks can often cause a ripple effect, forcing teams to compensate by overspending on veterans or using more assets to fill the holes via trade. I took a look at the prospects who could most realistically be selected in the top 50 picks and identified the players who I think bring the most bust potential. Let’s take a look at the top five riskiest players of the 2023 NFL Draft.

When looking at players for this list, I considered their projected draft spot within the first two rounds. Projected first-round picks will naturally be more “risky” than projected second-round players. Next and most obvious, they’re bust potential. Combing those two factors, I came up with the following.

Top Five Riskiest Players in the NFL Draft

5. Kentucky QB Will Levis

Similar to another QB that you’ll see on this list, Levis is a high-risk, high-reward prospect that is projected to go in the first round. Levis has the mobility and arm that teams covet in QB’s these days. His upside is that of a top-five QB in the NFL. That being said, he has a long way to go to get to that level. His footwork is shaky and often leads to inaccuracy and needs to improve his pocket awareness. The physical tools are there but as we see year after year, it takes a lot more than that to be a successful NFL QB. As a projected top pick in the NFL Draft, Levis comes with some major risk. Plus, he likes mayonnaise in his coffee and if that isn’t a red flag, I don’t know what is.

4. Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt

When I first started truly breaking down the 2023 WR class, I felt like Hyatt could be an early second-round pick. There is some legit potential and it’s understandable why some teams may be higher on Hyatt than I am. That being said, I can’t get over the lack of diversity in Hyatt’s game. He’s a deep threat and that really might be it. When I watch his game, the best-case scenario that comes to mind is he can be the next Will Fuller. But what I most likely see, is a smaller version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Chosen Anderson. Hyatt is a projected top-50 pick that in my opinion, shouldn’t be going until mid to late round three at the earliest.

3. Florida QB Anthony Richardson

Anthony Richardson is arguably the most polarizing players in the NFL Draft. At 6’4, and 244 pounds while running a 4.43 40-yard dash with a rocket arm, there are plenty of aspects of Richardson’s game that attracts teams. Though when you watch his play inside the pocket, it’s filled with significant inaccuracy, inconsistency, and poor decision-making. When you consider his mobility, there will be a decent floor for Richardson. We’ve seen mobile QB’s in recent years survive as a starter even with poor passing abilities. That being said, for a potential top-10 pick, a team is looking for a top-tier franchise QB. Richardson has star potential, but there are significant questions about his game.

2. TCU WR Quentin Johnston

When you look at the top wide receivers in this class, Quentin Johnston comes with the biggest risk/reward among potential first-round picks. When you watch the film, the size, and speed jump off the tape and there’s a clear upside.

Though when you dig deeper into his game, there are plenty of concerns. To start, Johnston was hit-or-miss game to game. He had some monster games and then would disappear in others, including the National Championship Game where he had a whopping one catch for three yards. Next, he had no consistency with his point of catch, often resulting in unneeded incompletions, drops, and interceptions. Finally, I believe he needs the right offense to find high success in the NFL. He’s not going to be the receiver that will mold his play to any offense. If I’m a team using a first-round pick on a WR, I’d want a safer decision than what Johnston brings.

1. Georgia DL Jalen Carter

Let’s start this one straight… Jalen Carter is arguably the best defensive player in this draft. That being said, we’ve seen numerous top NFL talents ruin their careers with off-field issues. On the eve of the NFL Combine, Jalen Carter was charged with reckless driving and racing. It was an incident that involved the death of Georgia football player Devin Hillock, and recruiting analyst Chandler Leroy. Carter eventually reached a plea deal to avoid jail time and was given 12 months probation, 80 hours of community service, a $1,000 fine, and a mandatory driving class. After reaching the plea deal, Jalen Carter showed up to Georgia’s pro day overweight and struggled to finish drills. In addition to the reckless driving and racing charges, Carter was cited for speeding several times during his time at Georgia.

His football talent and on-field performance will likely still mean Carter is a top-10 pick in this years draft. That being said, he clearly comes with major risk and if Carter messes up while he’s in the NFL, he will already have a poor reputation, and the NFL will likely kneel to public opinion and come down hard. Only time will tell if Carter can focus on football and live up to his true potential. For now, he tops the list of the riskiest players of the 2023 NFL Draft.

For more sports content, visit Belly Up Sports and follow me on twitter, @MattCouture5