History tells us that in the next five months, as many as a dozen college football coaches will be looking for a new job. Which coaches are already on the Hot Seat coming into the season, and whose seat is the hottest?
As a prelude to our team-by-team conference previews, we’re doing Hot Seat rankings this week on The South Endzone Podcast. We typically agree on at least three of the five hottest seats, with maybe some difference in the order. But most years, there are obvious candidates, and 2023 is no different.
Everyone has their own approach to this, but I look for two key things:
1. How disappointing has the coach’s tenure been to this point, and/or have they regressed over time?
and
2. What is the likelihood of turning it around?
For instance, Georgia Tech’s Geoff Collins took the top spot in my Hot Seat ranking last year. In addition to going 9-25 through his first three seasons, the Yellowjackets didn’t look like a team that would make enough of a jump for him to continue there. Not coincidentally, he was dismissed after a 1-3 start. Again, oftentimes it’s not hard to see coming.
With those criteria in mind, here’s my definitive rundown on who is most likely to have an upset wife scrolling Zillow this fall.
5. Greg Schiano, Rutgers
Embed from Getty ImagesSchiano is 12-22 in his encore tenure at Rutgers, after going 68-67 from 2001-2011. The Scarlet Knights were awful offensively in 2021 (19.7 ppg – 120th) yet somehow worse in 2022 (17.4 ppg – 124th). Just to rub a little salt in their 2022 wounds, they regressed on defense as well, going from 56th in scoring average allowed to 95th. They lost six games by 17 points or more.
What Will Get Him off the Hot Seat?
Vegas has Rutgers pegged for 3.5 wins this year. I don’t think simply hitting the “Over” will be good enough. Five wins might be enough to buy him another year if the losses are at least competitive. That wouldn’t be the case in a lot of situations, but Schiano seems entrenched at Rutgers and may get a little more leeway. And he’ll probably need every bit of it.
4. Justin Wilcox, California
Wilcox is 30-36 at Cal through six seasons, with losing records each of the last three years. They took a huge step backward defensively in 2022, allowing 5.6 points more per game than in 2021. Five one-score losses last year, four of which came against quality opponents (USC, UCLA, Notre Dame, Washington) provides some reason for optimism.
What Will Get Him off the Hot Seat?
A Bowl game would do it. Vegas has the Golden Bears at 5.5 wins, so if they can get to six or even seven, he’d be in good shape. Can they? I’m not sure. Cal has some obstacles that a lot of other places don’t. The Transfer Portal is somewhat of a one-way street due to academic requirements. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors. They’ll play what are probably the six best teams in the conference and miss Colorado and Arizona, who will likely be among the worst. The best case is that they scrap their way to six wins to get him another year, but he ends up going into 2024 on the hot seat all over again. Which would be better than the alternative, I guess?
3. Neal Brown, West Virginia
When I started this exercise, I expected Brown to be higher on this list. Putting him third probably says more about the next two guys than it does about Brown, though. After winning double-digit games his last three seasons at Troy, Brown has gone 22-25 through four years in Morgantown. The defense was absolutely brutal last year, allowing 32.9 ppg (116th), contributing to five losses by 10+ points. Given that he’s yet to win a seventh game in any season, it’s fair to say his tenure has been underwhelming. He’s running out of time.
What Will Get Him off the Hot Seat?
Well, the Mountaineers are going to have to exceed some expectations for him to stick around. Sportsbooks have them at 4.5 or 5.5 and simply splitting the difference and finishing 5-7 will seal his fate. Like Wilcox, getting to a bowl game would be a great start, but it probably only buys him another year. He probably needs to win seven games to really feel safe.
2. Jeff Hafley, Boston College
Embed from Getty ImagesJeff Hafley and his Eagles went 3-9 last year, bringing his record to15-20 through his three seasons. The offense regressed for a second straight season (17.8 ppg, 122nd) and the defense wasn’t any good either (30.3 ppg allowed, 100th). Two of their wins were by a single point; alternatively, they lost five games by 17 points or more. They were a bad, bad football team. And it’s not clear they’ll be much better.
What Will Get Him off the Hot Seat?
It’s going to be tough. They’re getting 5.5 wins from Vegas, and looking at their schedule, I’m not sure I see a fifth win let alone a sixth or seventh. And I think given how the last three years have gone, he’s going to need to win seven games. If he does that, I’ll be both surprised and thoroughly impressed. If not, he’s probably going to be looking for work.
1. Tom Allen, Indiana
I feel a little bad about listing Tom Allen here because he is, by all accounts, a decent man and a good coach. And I question whether anyone could win consistently at Indiana. But the reality is that he’s gone 5-7 or worse in four of six seasons and is 30-39. Losing 18 of your last 24 games will put your job in jeopardy at any school, regardless of who you are. A 6-2 season during the COVID year was the high-water mark for Allen and the Hoosiers, but it’s been downhill ever since. They’ve finished outside of the top 100 both offensively and defensively the last two years, in terms of scoring average, and lost six games last season by 14 or more points.
What Will Get Him off the Hot Seat?
A miracle, probably. Indiana is getting either 3.5 or 4 wins from Vegas, depending on where you look. Much like Wilcox and Brown, he’s probably going to need to get bowl-eligible. And I just don’t see it. They’d need to make a MASSIVE improvement defensively, where they allowed 33.9 ppg (120th) last year. For that matter, they’d need to take a big step forward on offense too (23.2 ppg, 100th). And they’d have to do it against a schedule that includes Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Maryland; arguably five of the seven best teams in the conference. It’s more likely that my streak continues and he joins Collins, Clay Helton, and Will Muschamp as coaches who entered a season in the top spot on my Hot Seat rankings and didn’t survive the year.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
