June and July are tough months for college football fans. Spring ball is over, yet the regular season seems like it’s still so far away. Thankfully, Las Vegas is kind enough to give us something to think about and discuss: Win Totals.
It’s a unique year for the PAC-12. USC and UCLA are on their way out. A forthcoming media rights deal may or may not prompt more departures. Playoff expansion is around the corner. And oh yeah, the actual football being played in the conference last season was the best it’s been in a half-decade.
I’ll be going through win totals for all of the “Power Five” conferences over the next month or so, and we’ll be discussing these teams in more detail on The South Endzone Podcast as we go. So without further ado, here are Win Totals predictions for the PAC-12.
*All Win Totals listed are from Fanduel Sportsbook; other outlets may have slightly different Win Totals or betting odds*
USC Trojans (9.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesUSC is a good defense away from being a bona fide CFP Title contender. Offensively, they averaged 41 per game last year and look to be every bit as good in 2023. Caleb Williams is the best player in college football, and he’s surrounded by talent. Arizona transfer Dorian Singer (1,105 yds, 6 TD) joins Mario Williams (631 yds, 5 TD) and Tahj Washington (785 yds, 6 TD) to form a lethal pass-catching corps. Austin Jones (705 yds, 5 TD) and Marshawn Lloyd (573 yds, 9 TD at South Carolina) will get the carries. They’ve improved up front defensively with the additions of Bear Alexander (Georgia) and Jack Sullivan (Purdue). Nine starters on defense return, so they should be better. How much better is the difference between just hitting the Over on this win total (which I think they’ll do) and making a Playoff run.
Washington Huskies (9.5)
Washington brings back a bunch of key players behind an offense that averaged 39.7 points per game last season. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be trying to follow up a 4,641 yard, 31-touchdown season. Standout receivers Rome Odunze ( 1,145 yds, 7 TD) and Jalen McMillan (1,098 yds, 9 TD) are each coming off big 2022 campaigns. Ja’lynn Polk and Cameron Davis will be looking to make bigger contributions after solid seasons. They were pretty average defensively, allowing 25.8 ppg, but have made a few additions up front and on the back end. Even marginal improvement will make this team a playoff contender. That trip to USC will be huge in determining who wins the conference and stays alive for a playoff spot, but this is about win totals and I like them to get to 10 wins.
Oregon Ducks (9.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesDan Lanning had a great debut season in Eugene, finishing 10-3. They, like Washington, are bringing back most of the key pieces to an excellent offense (38.8 ppg). Bo Nix returns after a 3,593 yard, 27 TD season, and he has plenty of weapons to attack defenses with. Bucky Irving, Kris Hutson, and Troy Franklin are joined by Troy transfer Tez Johnson. They were “just okay” on defense but there’s reason to believe with Lanning at the helm they should improve some. I don’t love that their four hardest games are after their bye week, or that only two of them are at home. I’ve changed my mind on this win total a couple of times but eventually settled on Under 9.5 wins.
Utah Utes (8.5)
The back-to-back defending PAC-12 champs are a tough nut to crack. They were right up there with Oregon and Washington offensively (38.6 ppg) but noticeably better on defense (21.4 ppg allowed). Yet they finished with an identical record (9-3) to Oregon and got into the PAC-12 title game via a tiebreaker over 10-2 Washington. So much of their 2023 outlook hinges on the status of Cam Rising’s knee, I’m reluctant to make a pick here. But their three toughest games coming in a four-week stretch after their bye makes me lean Under 8.5 wins.
Oregon State Beavers (8.5)
Head Coach Jonathan Smith has put up an improved record every year he’s been in Corvallis (excluding that goofy 2020 COVID season), going from 2-10 in 2018 to last year’s 10-3 record. They rode a solid (32.2 ppg) offense with a top-20 defense (20.0 ppg allowed, 16th in FBS). Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei looks like he’ll be the starter at quarterback, and RB Damien Martinez (2022 PAC-12 Freshman OPOY) will shoulder the load in the running game. They only return five starters from that stellar defense, which will feature some new faces in the secondary. I like how the schedule sets up for them, though, with UCLA, Utah, and Washington all being at home and missing USC. I think there are nine wins here, give me the Over.
UCLA Bruins (8.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesChip Kelly has gone from a potential Hot Seat situation going into 2021 to consecutive eight-win seasons. At first glance, you might look at the departure of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet and think an offense that averaged 39.2 ppg might take a step back. Then you might look at the schedule and see no Washington and no Oregon and a manageable non-conference slate. They’re bringing back a lot of experience up front on both sides. Whoever the quarterback is (likely either Kent State transfer Collin Schlee or true freshman Dante Moore) will benefit from good line play, even if they look a little thin at receiver. The schedule and the 16 returning starters are enough for me, give me Over 8.5 wins.
Washington State Cougars (6.5)
This was the toughest of all the win totals to pick out of the conference. I’m really confident that the Cougars will make a bowl game. I’m not as confident that they’ll get a seventh win. Cameron Ward is coming off a pretty strong season (3,231 yds 23 TD) but they’ve changed out the entire receiver group. The top two running backs return, as do three starters on the O-Line. Defensively, they bring back five starters, highlighted by Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone up front. The secondary looks like an experienced unit but they’re thin at linebacker. The schedule is favorable enough, with no Utah and no USC, to nudge me to take the Over. They should win at least two non-conference games and the back end includes Arizona, Stanford, Colorado, and Cal. Can they pull off one upset?
Stanford Cardinal (3.5)
I’d argue that no team has been hurt more by recent rule changes than Stanford. The transfer portal is basically a one-way ticket due to academic requirements, and the roster reflects that. They bring back six starters from a 3-9 team and have a new coach. Their defense is going to be awful and the offense looks to have a ceiling of “slightly below average”. I’m interested to see if new HC Troy Taylor can build anything here over time, given his strong track record. His Sacramento State teams put up a ton of points, and he had a good run as Utah’s OC. But he doesn’t have much to work with here at the moment. Take the Under.
Arizona State Sun Devils (4.5)
Embed from Getty Images2022 was a rough go for the Sun Devils, on multiple fronts. Much of that is behind them, but it may still be a long road. Kenny Dillingham enters his debut season with pretty modest expectations but has already made his mark on the recruiting trail. I thought he was a smart hire and the right guy for that job, but they look like a team with a six-win ceiling in 2023. Having said that, I do like them to get to five wins. Keep an eye out for Elijhah Badger (866 yds, 7 TD), a yards-after-catch monster who will be on my list of breakout players to watch this year.
California Golden Bears (5.5)
This is one of the more confusing win totals on the list. Because I look at Cal, and I look at their schedule, and I look at that 5.5 wins, and I don’t get it. It just doesn’t jive. Justin Wilcox made my Hot Seat List for a reason: they haven’t been any good and I don’t see them winning enough games for him to continue. They miss Arizona and Colorado in conference play, which means they get all the big boys. Jaydn Ott is a good back (943 yds, 8 TD) and I like WR Jeremiah Hunter (965 yds, 5 TD) a lot, but outside of that, they don’t look to have much. I think they go Under 5.5 wins and miss a bowl game for a fourth straight year.
Arizona Wildcats (4.5)
The Wildcats enter Jedd Fisch’s third year with a lot of experience on offense and almost none on the defensive side. Among the eight returning offensive starters are QB Jayden De Laura (3,685 yds, 25 TD), RB Michael Wiley (806 yds, 7 TD), receivers Jacob Cowing (1,034 yds, 7 TD) and Tetairoa McMillan (708 yds, 8 TD). The defense, however, scares me if I’m an Arizona fan. Three new starters in the secondary and a brand-new defensive line will need to gel quickly. A 2-2 start is likely, but they’ll be underdogs in at least six of their last eight games. I’m on the Under.
Colorado Buffaloes (3.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesColorado and new head coach Deion Sanders have grabbed more than their share of headlines this offseason. While I think he was a great hire, it still looks like it’s going to be a rough first year. All the roster churn has resulted in improvement at the skill positions. But it hasn’t resulted in much depth, particularly up front. If you’ve seen Kent State the last few years, you know they’ll play fast offensively. But it remains to be seen if “fast” will translate to “good”. I’m confident they’ll be improved (low bar, I know) and more competitive (-349 point differential in 2022), but I don’t see a fourth win. Take the Under on this win total.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
