Every season, College Football gives us teams who either overachieve or underachieve relative to their expectations. Or rather, our expectations of them. Sometimes by a lot, sometimes by a little. Occasionally you can see it coming if you look close enough, like Florida State in 2022. Other times, it comes out of nowhere, like TCU.
You can identify some common themes and trends after the fact when this happens. You can look and say to yourself “Self, those three teams that overachieved all had some things in common. I should file that away for next time”. Here we are. This is Next Time.
Why should I care if a team is better or worse than expected?
Let me answer your question with a question of my own: Do you like money?
If you do, and I have yet to meet anyone who doesn’t, there is money to be made in preseason Win Total futures. Understanding the How and Why some teams ended up so far from their projections can go a long way in identifying other teams who may rise or fall. You didn’t have to predict that Florida State would win nine games. Or that Texas A&M would go 5-7. You just had to decide if the Seminoles could get to seven wins, or that the Aggies wouldn’t reach nine.
I’ve really done well the last few years on preseason Win Totals. I was just over 70% in 2022, highlighted by a 13-1 record in the Big Ten. And I did it by identifying some trends and patterns, and jumping on totals early.
If you’re new to the Win Totals world, or gambling in general, consider this a primer. Sportsbooks are starting to release 2023 Win Totals. They don’t move based on action nearly as much as the lines for individual games, but they can move some. So if you see a bet you like, you need to get on it before everyone else catches up. We’ll talk about some things to look for as we come across them.
Trending Up: Iowa State (5.5)
I wasn’t high on them in 2022, taking Under 6.5 and hitting when they finished 4-8. But man, they could have made me look bad. Should have made me look bad.
I’m starting with these guys to illustrate the usefulness of Pythagorean Win Expectancy (PWE). Don’t worry, this won’t turn into an Algebra lecture. The short version is that a team’s winning percentage should be more or less proportional to the differential in points scored versus points allowed.
We can look at Iowa State and reasonably conclude that they really weren’t as bad as they looked. Their point differential of -1 (242 scored, 243 allowed) suggests that they should have been a 6-6 team. It tells us they might have been better than their record indicates. How did they finish 4-8? Let’s look at some of those losses.
After starting 3-0 they kicked off conference play with a 31-24 loss to Baylor. Then they dropped their next three games by a combined 7 points. They also had a six-point loss at Oklahoma State and a four-point loss to Texas Tech. Add it all up and you have a team that went 1-6 in one-score games, won convincingly three times, and lost convincingly twice. They could have EASILY been 7-5 if a couple plays go their way here and there.
Wins and losses in close games is something that tends to even out over time (aka Regression). This is exactly the type of team that can make a two or three-win jump without any massive changes. Will they win the conference? I seriously doubt it. But I think they’re a good candidate to make a modest jump, and I like Over 5.5 for them a lot.
Trending Down: Coastal Carolina (8)
This brings me no joy to say, but I think Coastal is trending down and I really don’t like the prospects of them getting to nine wins.
Listeners of The South Endzone Podcast will be familiar with my fondness for the Chanticleers. I rode them to a 7-2 record in 2021 and 6-3 in 2022, between Against The Spread (ATS) and Over/Under wagers. And I had a lot of fun watching them win those bets, too. I loved watching their unique Triple-Option Pistol offense. I’m a huge Grayson McCall fan. The Teal turf even grew on me.
After a 9-1 start in 2022 (which included three wins by four points or fewer), the wheels came completely off. They got absolutely curb-stomped their last three games, losing to James Madison, Troy, and East Carolina by a combined score of 145-63. Add in a 49-21 shellacking at the hands of Old Dominion in Week 7, and you have a team that went 9-4 while being outscored by 36 points on the year.
They were Bizarro Iowa State: Good Offense, Horseshit Defense, won some close games, and when they lost they got annihilated.
So PWE is part of it; they weren’t as good as their record suggests, even if they were fun to watch. The other part is Jamey Chadwell left for Liberty and took much of the offensive staff with him. Coastal hired NC State Offensive Coordinator Tim Beck as his replacement. It’s unclear how they’re going to fix a defense that allowed 32 points per game last year. McCall is back, but he’ll be running a new offense. Historically that’s not ideal; players recruited for a given system oftentimes aren’t great fits for the new system. Coastal hasn’t been super active in the Portal, so what they’re bringing back is pretty much what they have.
Schedule-wise, there’s no easing into the season, with a trip to UCLA to start off. It looks like their toughest conference opponents will be Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Old Dominion, and James Madison; three of those are on the road. I just don’t see a path to nine wins.
Trending Up: Auburn (6.5)
Somehow this is the fourth article I’ve written for BellyUp Sports where I bring up Hugh Freeze in some fashion, and I haven’t typed the word “Escort” until right this very second. Monk-like discipline. Anyway, let’s talk Auburn football.
Five years ago this would have been an automatic Under for me. New Coach. Don’t know who the Quarterback will be. Coming off a 5-7 year that included just TWO wins against Power Five opponents (both by a Field Goal). Brutal conference schedule.
So why do I think Auburn is trending up? It’s not five years ago for starters. A new coach doesn’t scare me nearly as much as it used to. Auburn is a great example of why. They’ve brought in 19 transfers so far, 10 of the Four-Star variety. Guys who can contribute. Marry that talent with Hugh Freeze, a coach who has a proven track record of scoring points, and you’re in business. He’s made quarterbacks look better than they probably are at previous stops. Whether it’s Robby Ashford or Payton Thorne, he can make it work. There’s a reason he ended up in my Top Coaching Hires list.
They should go 4-0 in non-conference games. Vanderbilt should be a win. Georgia and LSU are probably losses. That leaves five conference games (at A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at Arkansas, at Alabama) to win two more. Those first four are all winnable, and the Iron Bowl is never a gimme. All told, I really like Auburn to go Over 6.5 wins.
Trending Down: Oklahoma State (6.5)
This one stings a little too, as I’m a Mike Gundy fan. Wild personality aside, he’s a supremely underrated coach. He enters his 19th season as Head Coach with one losing year on his resume (2005), and has seven double-digit win seasons and 11 Bowl game victories to his credit.
But I just can’t shake the feeling that Losing Season Number Two is on the way. There just isn’t much to like. The Cowboys took a big step back in 2022, particularly on defense, leading to a 7-6 record a year after winning 12 games. And I’m not sure they’ve improved. They lost some players, they brought in new ones, but it seems like a net-zero type of deal.
Starting Quarterback Spencer Sanders is off to Ole Miss. He’ll be replaced by someone from the unappealing grab bag of Garret Rangel, Alan Bowman, and Gunnar Gundy. The defense is installing new Coordinator Bryan Nardo’s scheme, their third different one in as many years.
Schedule-wise, South Alabama is coming off a 10-win season. Conference play in the Big 12 is typically pretty even across the board. Their one saving grace might be that they close out with new conference foes UCF, Houston, and BYU – none of whom look to be that strong this season. But on balance, six wins feels like the most likely outcome. I don’t feel great about it because I like Gundy but I’ll stick with Under 6.5 for OSU.
Trending Up: Memphis (7.5)
Here’s one from off the beaten path. You probably haven’t thought much about Memphis, let alone which way they’re trending. I get it. That’s what I’m here for.
They stand out for a few reasons. For starters, Vegas doesn’t seem to have made up its mind about Memphis. You can find 7.5, 8, or 8.5 depending on where you look. Those are the fun teams, because you have options and a little wiggle room. If you’re on the fence, take Under 8.5; if you like them a lot (like I do), take Over 7.5 wins.
They’re another PWE darling, having gone 7-6 despite a sturdy +121 point differential (459/338). Losses to Houston, SMU, and East Carolina by a combined six points painted their entire season in a whole different light.
In terms of on-field reasons for optimism, Quarterback Seth Henigan returns for a third season. The stability afforded by having a QB who’s thrown for 6,881 yards and 47 TDs the last two seasons is a great start. They’re bringing back four O-Linemen with starting experience and the majority of last year’s most productive skill position players. They should be favored in at least eight games, by a healthy margin in most cases. I love the Over 7.5, and I’d even be tempted to go Over 8 if the odds were attractive enough.
Trending Down: Mississippi State (6.5)
I hate listing Mississippi State here, given the circumstances. But trending down is trending down.
The sudden passing of legendary head coach Mike Leach in December after finishing an 8-4 season was obviously a jarring event. They bounced back with a ReliaQuest Bowl victory over Illinois, 19-10, which was fitting given that the game was played in a stadium that features a pirate ship.
Defensive Coordinator Zach Arnett was named Head Coach shortly after Leach’s death. He might not have been the preferred candidate under other circumstances, but in this case he was clearly the right person. The situation was already terrible enough, bringing in a new staff and all the additional churn that would have created could have been catastrophic.
But the team still doesn’t look to be very good and has a lot of questions. Arnett hired Appalachian State OC Kevin Barbay, which will be a departure from Leach’s Air Raid scheme. App State averaged 39.5 rushing attempts and 29.9 passing attempts per game in 2022, a stark difference from the 48.8 pass attempts and 22.7 rush attempts per game that Mississippi State ran up.
18 players have transferred to different programs, and a few more still remain in the Portal. Among those are Rara Thomas, the team’s leading receiver. Snagging RB Keyvone Lee from Penn State was a good get, he figures to have a prominent role in the Bulldogs’ new-look rushing attack. But how good that attack can be is a huge question. Can they suddenly pivot to a run-heavy, physical offensive scheme against SEC West defenses? Feels Unlikely. The schedule doesn’t do anything to make me think they’re likely to get to seven wins.
I see a Bulldogs team that’s going to have to fight to get to 6-6. What I don’t see is a seventh win. For their sake, given what’s happened, I wouldn’t mind being wrong here. Part of me would like to see them go Over. Taking the emotion out of it and ignoring my fondness for Leach, this is a team that is trending down and has the potential for a really rough season. Take the Under.
So who else? There’s gotta be more right?
Sure there are. But that’s for you to decide, my friend. I’m just trying to give you some idea of what to look for. These programs stood out to me for very specific reasons, so I wanted to point them out. The biggest thing is to figure out what information is instructive, what is not, and to evaluate your results and adjust accordingly. Hopefully we can meet back here in January to go over how well I did, and you’ll be able to read that piece knowing that you did even better. I’m pulling for ya.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
