As is the norm in college football in 2023, the Big 12 is a conference in the midst of transition. Four new teams join the league, and two others are on their way out. Last year TCU came out of nowhere, Baylor the year before. Who might be this year’s surprise team? Or will Texas, the betting favorite, break their Big 12 title drought?
Our run-through of Win Total predictions continues, and this time it’s the Big 12. We covered the conference over two episodes of The South Endzone Podcast; feel free to check that out for a little more detail on some of these teams.
So let’s take a look at each Big 12 team and why I think they’ll go Over or Under their Win Total in 2023, starting with the defending conference champions.
*All Win Totals listed are from Fanduel Sportsbook; other outlets may have slightly different Win Totals or betting odds*
Kansas State Wildcats (7.5)
Kansas State has been an easy Over pick for us the last two years, and at first glance 7.5 seems a tad disrespectful. QB Will Howard is back after 5 starts last year, and the entire O-Line returns as well. Led by LG Cooper Beebe, they’ll be one of the country’s top units. They lose standout RB Deuce Vaughn, but brought in Treshaun Ward from Florida State. Ward split carries at FSU but averaged almost 6.5 yards per carry en route to 1,143 yds and 11 TDs the last two years. I think he’s primed for a huge season. Five defensive starters return, including leading tackler Austin Moore at LB and Kobe Savage at Safety.
The schedule is kind of rough. They miss West Virginia, BYU, and Cincinnati (who are all expected to finish in the bottom half of the conference) and have Troy (12-2 in 2022) and Missouri in non-conference, while getting all the big boys in conference play. I’ll take the Over on 7.5 but a repeat appearance in the Big 12 Championship game seems unlikely.
Oklahoma Sooners (9.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesI did not have “Brent Venables replaces Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma and the defense is actually worse” on my 2022 Bingo card, but here we are. And if the Sooners are going to make a four-win jump this season and compete for a Big 12 title, that defense is going to have to make MAJOR improvements. Offensively, they’ll be fine. Dillon Gabriel is back and they should have a quality rushing attack between three backs. They’re replacing four starters on the O-Line with experienced transfers, and ditto with receivers.
But for me, it all comes back to the defense. They’re replacing most of the back end, and for that matter most of the front end, too (although the depth up front looks better). Schedule-wise, they miss Baylor and Kansas State and the non-conference slate isn’t daunting. I can be talked into eight wins pretty easily, but nine is my limit. Give me the Under.
BYU Cougars (4.5)
BYU brings back 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team, but how will they transition from their Independent schedule to a Big 12 slate? Probably okay, when you consider the type of teams they played (Oregon, Arkansas, Notre Dame, and Baylor, for instance). Former USC and Pitt QB Kedon Slovis replace Jaren Hall, and two of their top three receivers return (Keanu Hill, Kody Epps). They’re replacing three O-Line starters with transfers, so there is experience there but might need some time to gel as a unit. They look like they’ll split carries among three backs.
Defensively, among the seven starters that return are five of their six leading tacklers from 2022. I’m a big fan of LB Ben Bywater (98 tackles, 3 INT) but they’re replacing most of their secondary, which is concerning in this conference. I think 4.5 is a game too low; I’ll take the Over and I think they have a decent shot to go bowling.
*If you’re on the fence about BYU at 4.5, multiple books offer shorter odds at 5.5 so again, shop around*
Texas Longhorns (9.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Longhorns are a clear betting favorite to come out of the Big 12 and for good reason. On paper, they’re the most talented team in the conference. Texas returns five of their top six receivers from 2022, headed by Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington. They bring back the entire offensive line and six starters from a stingy defense (21.6 ppg allowed). They lost Bijan Robinson, but Texas is the kind of place where you don’t worry that they’ll be able to find a good running back. Look for Jonathon Brooks to be the main back at least to start, but true freshman CJ Baxter may get some carries too.
Then there’s the matter of Quinn Ewers. He missed a chunk of 2022 with injury but showed some flashes of pretty top-level play when healthy. If he can stay on the field this offense is Capital-D Dangerous. They’ll be favored in at least 10 games. I’m ordinarily reluctant to believe too much in Texas because I’ve been let down in the past. But this is a ten-win team.
Iowa State Cyclones (5.5)
I’m already on record taking the Over on Iowa State, and I’ll repeat many of the same points here. They were a tough-luck team last year, battling through injuries on offense and losing a bunch of close games. They look like the kind of team that’s ready to take a jump. QB Hunter Dekkers fought through some growing pains in his first year starting and needs to take better care of the football (14 INTs). They return nine starters on offense, so I’d expect an improvement on their 20 ppg average. Defensively, they bring five starters back from a very good unit (285 yds, 20 ppg). This is an improved team and I like them to get to six or maybe seven wins.
West Virginia Mountaineers (5.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesMy mother always told me that if I don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. I’ll ignore that advice for just a moment to explain why I’m taking the Under. The schedule isn’t favorable, with non-conference games against Pitt and Penn State. They’re replacing the entire receiver group and have a new quarterback. Seven starters back on defense, yes, but that defense gave up 33 ppg. How much of that defense would you want back? It looks like there’s another losing season on the horizon and you have to wonder how much longer Neal Brown is going to last there.
Kansas Jayhawks (5.5)
At first glance, this one feels a game too low for a squad that brings back 17 starters from last year. But despite the wealth of experience, there are some concerns here. The defense allowed 35.5 ppg last year, an abysmal number. They’ll be very good on offense, with QB Jalon Daniels (2014 yds, 18 TD), RB Devin Neal (1,124 yds 9 TD), and their top six receivers back. But how many shootouts can they win against some of these other Big 12 teams? Their defensive line looks like a clear weakness again. Even though they probably improved the secondary, they’re gonna give up a ton of rushing yards. But even still, I think Lance Leipold is such a good coach, I trust him to steal a game somewhere on that schedule and get to six wins again. Give me the Over on 5.5 Jayhawk wins.
Cincinnati Bearcats (5.5)
This is a tough one. Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin and was replaced by Louisville’s Scott Satterfield, who was nearing Hot Seat territory there. But the schedule is favorable, as they miss Kansas State, TCU, and Texas in conference play. However, they only return nine starters (three on offense, six on defense) from a 9-4 squad. They lose their starting QB, their top EIGHT receivers from 2022, and four starters on the O-Line. They brought in transfers all over the place to patch holes in the roster, but will it be enough? Quarterback Emory Jones (Florida, Arizona State) is the only one with a significant amount of game experience, most everyone else is a question mark. I don’t love it. Give me the Under.
TCU Horned Frogs (7.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesTCU will still be a quality team, but they won’t come close to last year’s success. They’re replacing eight starters (and a coordinator) on offense, but they bring back most of the defense. Chandler Morris, who was named the starter coming into 2022, will be taking the snaps. A couple of Alabama transfers, running back Trey Sanders and receiver Jojo Earle, will be integral parts to the offense. They bring back both Tackles but are replacing all three interior spots. Defensively, six starters return from a pretty average unit (26 ppg allowed in conference play). They’ll have one of the top secondaries in the Big 12.
Looking at the schedule, I expect them to get off to a good start. They should go to Kansas State in Week 8 no worse than 6-1. But the last five games are probably their five toughest opponents of the year, three of which are on the road. Don’t love that. This probably comes down to the Texas Tech and Baylor games. It’s close, and I flip-flopped a couple of times. But I’ll reluctantly take Over 7.5 for the Horned Frogs.
Baylor Bears (7.5)
Embed from Getty Images2022 Baylor was an odd bunch. They went 6-7 despite a +69-point differential on the season. Teams that do that, and bring back a decent number of those players, usually see a jump the following year. And I don’t think Baylor will be an exception. Quarterback Blake Shapen returns, as does Richard Reese (1,020 rushing yards, 14 TD). They bring back three of their top four receivers and added Ketron Jackson, who averaged 17.3 yards per catch at Arkansas last year. My big concern is replacing four O-Line starters, but they may run more “12” personnel looks to add a blocker in the run game.
They took a step back defensively last year, allowing 8.5 more points per game. But they look like they’ve improved at least a little bit at all three levels. They won’t be as good as the 2021 defense, which was a top-10 unit nationally, but they’ll be better than in 2022. I like them to get to 8-4 and hit this Over.
UCF Golden Knights (6.5)
UCF rode a 9-3 regular season to the AAC title game, but how will they do in the new conference? There’s reason for optimism. John Rhys Plumlee threw for 2,586 yards and 14 TDs, in addition to being the team’s leading rusher (862 yards, 11 TD). They bring back two starters up front and brought in two more experienced linemen. Four of their top five receivers from a year ago are back as well, headlined by Javon Baker (796 yds, 5 TD). Last year’s defense was solid (23.6 ppg allowed) and they bring seven starters back, but they’ll be playing against better offenses this season.
I can find five wins on the schedule pretty easily, and I think they have a good shot to win six. But I can’t talk myself into a seventh win. Even with no TCU or Texas, they still have five road games in conference play, plus a trip to Boise. I’ll take Under 6.5 wins, but I do think they make a bowl game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesNews Flash: Texas Tech is going to score a ton of points. They averaged 34 a game in 2022 on their way to eight wins, and are bringing back most everybody. Their leading rusher, Tahj Brooks (691 yds, 7 TD) is back. So are four starters on the O-Line. Their top five receivers from a year ago are returning. And quarterback Tyler Shough, who started the last four games of 2022, will be taking the snaps. They're going to put up close to 40 per game.Defensively is where it gets fuzzy. They gave up 29.2 points per game last year. While that's their best mark in at least six seasons, it's still not very good. They have a pretty experienced secondary and should be okay up front. They were 7-5 last year, which included four wins by four points or fewer. Can they get to eight wins without improving defensively, and just winning a bunch of shootouts? I'm not convinced. They'll be fun to watch, but give me the Under.
Houston Cougars (4.5)
Houston tumbled from 20.4 ppg allowed in 2021 to an embarrassing 32.2 ppg mark last year. Now, they're moving into the Big 12 and will be facing better offenses. It might be a long year for Dana Holgorsen. Offensively, they'll be replacing Clayton Tune, who threw for 4,074 yards and 40 TD and was the team's leading rusher for good measure. Also gone are their top two receivers. They added experienced transfers to fill spots on both lines and in the secondary, but the overall roster probably doesn't stand up in this conference.
Their best chance at a fifth win comes in the finale at UCF. I'll lean Under here; their ceiling looks like six wins but they could just as easily finish last in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (6.5)
I'm going to backtrack on what I said about the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. Mike Gundy's track record is just too strong (17 straight bowl appearances) and their schedule is just too favorable (no Texas, no Baylor, no TCU). They got crushed by injuries last season, but despite losing longtime starting QB Spencer Sanders, they bring back seven starters on offense. They'll be improved up front and I'm a big Brennan Presley Jr fan. Offensively, I think they'll be okay. On defense, they bring back six starters for new DC Bryan Nardo to work with, including standouts Xavier Benson and Kendal Daniels. I don't expect them to contend for the conference title, but give me the Over on 6.5 wins.
The Big 12 looks to be as wide-open as ever, even if Texas might be a cut above the rest. I'd pick them to play in the conference championship game, but as for their opponent? Who knows. I could be talked into four different teams. That's what always makes this conference interesting.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
