After back-to-back Big Ten titles, can Michigan keep it going and make it three in a row? Can Penn State break through? Will Tom Allen survive the season? How will Mel Tucker and Sparty bounce back from a down year? The East division is full of questions. Let’s try and come up with some answers.
Win Total Season is winding down on The South Endzone Podcast. We’ve covered the PAC-12, the Big 12, the ACC, and now we’re finishing up the Big Ten with a look at the East division. Three teams with legitimate College Football Playoff (CFP) aspirations. A couple of programs struggling to get their footing and keep up. And another that’s looking to take their next step.
**Win Totals listed are from FanDuel Sportsbook. As always, shop around; you may be able to find different odds at other books**
Michigan Wolverines (10.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesMichigan won the East the last two years and thumped the West representative in the conference championship game in both seasons. They also throttled archrival Ohio State in both years. They bring back 15 starters. Yet, they somehow find themselves with longer odds to win the National Championship than their Buckeye counterparts.
They return starting quarterback JJ McCarthy and three starters from a superb offensive line. Their top four running backs, headed by Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, return. They did lose Ronnie Bell, their leading receiver last year, but brought back Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson, who combined for 875 yards and 10 TD last season. They averaged 40.4 ppg last year, so even a slight step back leaves them in great shape offensively.
The defense returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 16 points per contest last year. They’re replacing basically the entire defensive line, but are doing so with very talented, albeit inexperienced, younger guys. But the entire LB group returns, as does most of the secondary. They’ll be very good again.
The schedule starts out looking awfully favorable. They should head into their bye week at 8-0. Then they get Purdue, followed by arguably the three toughest games on their slate: at Penn State, at Maryland, and close out the season at home in The Game. I don’t love getting those three all in a row, but they also have a two-month ramp-up period to get ready. Can they win two of those? I say yes. In fact, I think it’s more likely they go 12-0 than 10-2. They’re my pick to win the East, win the Big Ten, and go to the Playoff. Give me a cheeseburger, extra Over, with fries.
Indiana Hoosiers (3.5)
I tried, I really did. I looked and looked and looked, then looked some more. But I couldn’t find anything to get too optimistic about for Indiana. It’s gonna be a rough one.
They bring back just five starters from last year’s 23.3-ppg offense. Four of them are on an offensive line that allowed 8.3 tackles for loss and 3.2 sacks per game. Shaun Shivers, last year’s leading rusher, and Connor Bazelak, last year’s starting quarterback, are both gone. They return 3 of their top 4 receivers, led by Cam Camper, but it’s not clear who’s going to throw them the ball. Most likely, Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson will be taking the snaps, but maybe Brendan Sorsby. Repeating last year’s 23 ppg feels like it would be an achievement.
The defense returns just three starters, which might be a good thing, given they allowed 33.9 ppg last year. Leading tackler Aaron Casey and fellow linebacker Noah Pierre are the only front-seven players returning. They’re also replacing most of the secondary. They loaded up in the portal to fill spots both upfront and on the back end. But, I’m not convinced they’ll improve that much from last year’s results.
The schedule looks like it was made by someone who hates Indiana. They open with Ohio State. Hey, welcome to 2023!! They have two winnable games (Indiana State, Akron) in their next four before the bye. After that? Road trips to Michigan, Penn State, Illinois, and Purdue. Plus Wisconsin at home. So, this pick comes down to: can they beat both Michigan State and Rutgers? No, friends, they probably cannot. Give me the Under. Tom Allen, bless his heart, was at the top of my Hot Seat Rankings for a reason. This team is going to be awful and will in all likelihood finish last in the East.
Maryland Terrapins (7.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesMike Locksley has quietly improved the Terrapins over the course of his four seasons, each being better than the last. Can he keep it going and improve on last year’s 8-5 mark?
The offense brings back five starters from last year when they averaged 28.2 ppg. If you were able to choose which five, you’d probably pick the five that Maryland has returning. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa returns, as do the top two receivers and top FIVE rushers. Roman Hemby ran for 989 yards and 10 TD last year. Jeshaun Jones and TE Corey Dyches combined for 1,051 yards and 7 TD. The concern here is that they only bring back one starter up front.
The defense made great strides last year, dropping from 30.7 ppg allowed in 2021 to 23.2 in 2022. They do return their three leading tacklers from last year. They’re replacing the entire defensive line but bring back two starting linebackers and three defensive backs. My big worry with the defense is where the pass rush is going to come from.
They will be clear favorites in seven games, and clear underdogs in three. Assuming there are no big surprises with that (dangerous, I know), this comes down to the Illinois and Nebraska games. Can they earn a split there? It’s close, but I’ll say they do. I’m on the Over, taking the Terps to go 8-4.
Ohio State Buckeyes (10.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat a weird world we’re living in. Ryan Day is 45-6, has won three Big Ten titles, and made the playoff four times. By any rational measure, he’s had a wildly successful five years in Columbus. Yet some are openly speculating that he could be on the Hot Seat if they lose to Michigan a third straight time. Insanity.
Anyhow, enough about things that I think are stupid. Let’s talk Buckeye football. The 2023 squad will bring back 14 starters from last year’s 11-2 team. They feature the best non-quarterback player in college football, Marvin Harrison Jr. They return their top four rushers from last year, who totaled 2,100 yards. Including Harrison, they return their top SIX receivers from 2022. While they lose three starters on the O-Line, they have plenty of talent there and added a couple of experienced transfers.
The obvious question is who replaces CJ Stroud at quarterback. It’s most likely going to be Kyle McCord. I expect he’ll be good. Day has a habit of not missing a beat when a first-round quarterback leaves. They’ve averaged 41 ppg or more in each of the last six years, and I’d expect a similar number.
Defensively, among the seven starters returning are their top three tacklers from last year, led by LB Tommy Eichenberg. They’ve brought in some transfers up front and in the secondary. They allowed 21 ppg last season in DC Jim Knowles’s first season, and even marginal improvement, coupled with that offense, makes this team a legit title contender.
This Win Total comes down to three games: at Notre Dame, Penn State, and at Michigan. Can they win two of those three? I’ve gone back and forth and changed my mind. I wouldn’t touch this with actual money, but for the purposes of this article, I’ll say Under. Michigan is still a bad matchup for them. Notre Dame and Penn State are both very good up front. And with all the new faces on the line of scrimmage, that’s the only thing that gives me pause. They’ll still win 10 games, but I don’t think they’ll get to 11.
Michigan State Spartans (5.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesIt’s tough to imagine a roster taking a bigger hit in the spring than Michigan State’s did. Mel Tucker was looking to bounce back from last year’s 5-7 campaign. Instead, his two-year starting quarterback and leading receiver transferred in late May. Rough.
The Spartan offense had already taken a step back in 2022 with the departure of Kenneth Walker III. The scoring average dropped by a full touchdown. Now add to that a new quarterback, losing three of the top four receivers from last year, and things get worrisome. They do return four O-Line starters and their top running back, Jalen Berger. They’ve hit the portal to find help at receiver and depth at running back. I’m just not sure it’s enough. We’re probably looking at something close to last year’s 24.4 ppg average.
The defense has been an issue for a couple of years now. They had one of the worst pass defenses in the country in 2021 (325 yds/gm) and allowed 417 yards and 27.4 points per game last year. They weren’t very good against the run (179 ypg) and didn’t pressure the quarterback (29 sacks). This year they return seven starters, including leading tackler Cal Haladay. They should be better up front, with as many as eight DL who can play and have four linebackers with starting experience. But, they lost their top two defensive backs and the secondary does look a little thin.
That secondary is going to get tested early, with games against Washington and Maryland. They’ll be 3-2 at best going into the bye week, but the tougher games are on the back end. I’m not sure there are enough wins there. Rutgers and Indiana are probably wins. Minnesota and Nebraska are likely toss-ups. Michigan, at Ohio State, and Penn State are likely losses. I’ll say they go 5-7 again; I don’t like the churn at quarterback and I don’t trust the defense will improve enough.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3.5)
Greg Schiano is 12-22 in his second go-round at Rutgers, and you have to wonder if patience is finally wearing thin.
The Scarlet Knights were putrid on offense last year (17.4 ppg). They only return one of the top four receivers from. Quarterback Gavin Wimsatt struggled through some injury last year but flashed some potential. They return their top four rushers from last year, and those guys will be running behind four returning starters.
For as bad as the offense was, the defense didn’t exactly distinguish themselves either (29.3 ppg allowed). They bring eight starters back, and have experience at all three levels. I think they’ll be improved, but will they be improved enough?
You don’t ordinarily see a team eclipse its preseason Win Total by Week 5, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Rutgers did just that. They open with three winnable games (Northwestern, Temple, Virginia Tech), go to Michigan to get their faces stomped in, then play FCS opponent Wagner. They also have a trip to Indiana later on down the line. I think there are four wins here, believe it or not. I didn’t see this coming, but I’m on the Over for Rutgers, too.
Penn State Nittany Lions (9.5)
Easiest pick in this division for me. I’m 100% on the Nittany Lions wagon this year.
Seven starters return on offense, including stud running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 1,928 yards and 22 TD last year. They’re running behind a line that returns three starters and has first-round talent at LT in Olu Fashanu. They brought in transfers to improve depth at receiver. The most notable departure was longtime starting quarterback Sean Clifford, who will be replaced by highly-touted Drew Allar. This team averaged 35.8 ppg last year and you can expect a similar number with Singleton and Allen back.
They also bring back the majority of an excellent defense (18.2 ppg allowed). Chop Robinson is back after leading the team in sacks (5.5) and cornerback Kalen King (3 INT) returns as well. They should be very, very good up front, and have a stellar group of linebackers. They’ve allowed between 16 and 21 ppg in five of the last six years, and I expect a similar number.
I don’t see anything on their schedule that makes me think they shouldn’t win ten games. Even if you assume they lose to Ohio State and Michigan, I think they beat everyone else. I’ll take Over 9.5, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they got to 11 wins.
This season will be the last iteration of Big Ten football as we know it, at least in terms of how the West and East are structured. The conference does get a lot more interesting once UCLA, USC, Washington, and Oregon join. Even if I’m not wild about what’s happening to college football with regard to conference realignment, those programs only make the Big Ten better. Until then, let’s enjoy what we’ve got while we’ve still got it.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
