The Big Ten champion hasn’t come out of the West since the implementation of the East and West divisions. Can anybody stop the streak this season? How will two high-profile coaching hires acclimate? Can Iowa actually… you know… score? We’ll look at those questions and more, and take a stab at some Win Totals.
We’re still in the thick of Win Totals season on The South Endzone Podcast, and next up is the Big Ten. Specifically, the West. The division welcomes three new coaches, plus an interim. They’ve had a different representative in the conference title game each of the last four years. Will that trend continue? Let’s dig in.
*All Win Totals listed are from Fanduel Sportsbook; other outlets may have slightly different Win Totals or betting odds*
Minnesota Golden Gophers (7.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesMinnesota is coming off consecutive 9-win seasons, but most of those players are gone. The most notable departure is running back Mohamed Ibrahim, the school’s career rushing leader. They’re also breaking in a new quarterback after the departure of longtime starter Tanner Morgan.
I think the Gophers will still have a good ground game, even with the loss of three O-Line starters. Western Michigan transfer Sean Tyler is coming off consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and he’ll be backed up by Zach Evans and true freshman Darius Taylor. The question mark will be at quarterback, where sophomore Athan Kaliakmanis takes over. “The Greek Rifle” got five starts last year and showed some flashes, even if his final stat line was a bit underwhelming. It will help having his top two receivers back in Daniel Jackson and Brevyn Spann-Ford.
Six starters are back on defense, where Minnesota should be good once again. Not as good as last year (13.8 ppg allowed), probably, but they’ll be fine. They have two starters back up front, one at linebacker, and three in the secondary. They’ve added a couple transfers here and there. Even with what looks like a tougher schedule, they’ll likely still allow fewer than 20 a game.
Speaking of that schedule, it’s not great. Road games against North Carolina, Iowa (take the Under, I don’t care what the number is), Purdue, and Ohio State make for a pretty tough Away slate. Throw in home games against Michigan and Wisconsin and you’ve got yourself a challenge. I think this one is a game too high, give me a 7-5 finish and the Under.
Purdue Boilermakers (5.5)
The 2022 representative for the West division is a program in transition. Head coach Jeff Brohm left for his alma mater Louisville. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell is off to the NFL, among others. They only bring back 11 starters total. So, what can we expect from new head coach Ryan Walters and his Boilermakers? Probably a little bit better defense (27.4 ppg allowed in 2022), and maybe a slightly worse offense?
Hudson Card comes over from Texas, where he was displaced after starting games in each of the last two seasons. Leading rusher Devin Mockobee returns. They only bring back two O-Line starters, but supplemented with experienced transfers. They also lost their top two receivers.
Defensively, Purdue has hit the transfer portal hard. They’ve brought in depth and experience at all three levels to try and improve on last year’s 27.4 ppg average. I imagine they’ll do that, but they won’t approach Illinois’ 12.8 ppg allowed from last year, when Walters was their defensive coordinator.
The schedule doesn’t do them a ton of favors, with crossover opponents from the East including Michigan and Ohio State. They have three winnable non-conference games and matchups with Indiana and Northwestern in Big Ten play. But, I don’t know if I like them to beat the other mid-tier teams from the West like Nebraska or Illinois. I’ll take the Under for now.
Northwestern Wildcats (2.5)
Purdue may be a program in transition, but Northwestern is a program in turmoil. I won’t rehash all the details from the hazing scandal, they’re widely known and readily available. But what looked like a rough season coming up now looks like a looming catastrophe. They fired head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who has been a central figure in the program for nearly 30 years. At least three players have hit the transfer portal since I started putting this article together last week. Things are not going well.
In terms of on-field prospects, it’s pretty bleak. They return four starters from an offense that was among the nation’s worst (13.8 ppg). Quarterback Ben Bryant comes over from Cincinnati, where he was solid last year. But, who’s he going to throw to? Their top three receivers (none of whom eclipsed 700 yards) from last year are gone. They return one starter on the O-Line. It’s gonna be ugly.
The defense was uninspiring (28 ppg allowed) but should at least be experienced this year, returning eight starters. The entire LB corps is back, as is most of the secondary. A lot of new faces up front, though, and if you’re bad up front on defense in THIS conference? Look out.
Their schedule shows two games in which I expect them to be favored. They’ll beat Howard, they should beat UTEP. Then what? Maybe they can go get a win at Rutgers, who I don’t think will be very good. Ultimately, though, I think it’s going to be another forgettable year in Evanston. Under.
Iowa Hawkeyes (8.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesObviously, the most interesting subplot to Iowa’s season is the “Hunger Games Contract” that offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is working under in 2023. For the unaware, it basically states that if the Hawkeyes don’t average 25 points per game or more in the regular season, his contract will not be renewed. How that plays out will go a LONG ways in how they do against this Win Total.
If Iowa scored exactly 25 points in each and every game this season, they’d go 11-1 at worst. That’s how good the defense will be. Special teams, too. But if you’ve watched them the last few years, 25 points feels like a massive number.
Quarterback Cade McNamara comes over from Michigan, and he’s an upgrade. The O-Line will be stellar, you can always count on that. They return their top two rushers from 2022. The returning receiver production isn’t super-impressive, but the quarterback play last year was so abysmal, I don’t really know how good those guys really are. I’m not sure if they’ll get to the magic 25 ppg number, but I’m confident that they’ll be noticeably better than last year (17.8 ppg).
They bring back most of the defense that allowed only 13.3 ppg last year. Expect a similar number. They’ll be really good up front, and return three starters in the secondary. The loss of Jack Campbell and Seth Benson hurts, but I never worry about whether Iowa can find capable linebackers.
They should hit their bye week no worse than 5-3. They follow up the bye with games against Northwestern and Rutgers. It’s not unreasonable to think they start 7-1 and lock up the Over before closing out with Illinois and Nebraska. More likely, they hit the bye at 6-2, move to 8-2 after those layups, and win one of those two final games. Give me the most reluctant Over in the history of Overs.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (6.5)
After missing repeatedly on head coaching hires, Nebraska hired rebuild artist Matt Rhule. Rhule turned things around at both Temple and Baylor, winning double-digit games in his third year at each school.
Will they win the West? Almost certainly not. Will they improve on last year’s 4-8 mark? I’d be surprised if they don’t.
The first order of business is improving on last year’s 22.8 ppg scoring average. Jeff Sims comes over from Georgia Tech to start at quarterback, and they return last year’s leading rusher Anthony Grant. Also back is sophomore Gabe Ervin Jr, who started as a true freshman in the 2021 opener. They’ll be running behind a line that returns three starters and should be improved from last year. Marcus Washington is the best returning receiver, boasting a sturdy 15.2 yards per catch last year. Arik Gilbert and Thomas Fidone provide playmaking ability at the tight end position.
The defense was a mess last year, allowing 27.6 points and 189 rushing yards per game. They got moved off the ball up front, their run fits were horrid, and they tackled poorly. There may be some growing pains in shifting to Tony White’s 3-3-5 defense based on personnel (I’m not sure they have the speed at linebacker yet). But, they return the entire secondary and added some SEC transfers up front. I think we’ll see an improved unit here.
The first half of their schedule looks like three games they’ll win, one they’ll lose, and two toss-ups. The second half isn’t as forgiving, but has a couple of winnable games. I like the Huskers to get back to a bowl game finally. But I need to see them on the field before I buy into a seventh win. I think Rhule was a great hire and will do well there. But, he needs more than one off-season to get Nebraska back to the top of the West.
Wisconsin Badgers (8.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesLuke Fickell was my favorite coaching hire of this cycle. Not to get too far ahead of myself here, but Wisconsin is my pick to win the West.
Braelon Allen is among the best running backs in the country, and they return their top three receivers. They’ll have a superb O-Line. Personnel-wise, I think they’re all set. Bringing in an Air Raid offensive coordinator may seem like a drastic departure. But, new quarterback Tanner Mordecai has plenty of experience running the system. Phil Longo’s UNC team ran the ball plenty in his four years there. They’ll have the best offense in the West.
Defensively they “took a step back”, allowing 20.2 ppg. That was their highest mark since 2018. They are deep up front, return their top two tacklers, and bring back three starters in the secondary. Even with the departure of DC Jim Leonhard, this will still be a really, really good defense.
They should win their first five games, and I’d expect at least a split of the Iowa and Illinois games. Even if they lose at home to Ohio State, they should win at least three of the last four. I think this is a game too low. Give me the Over on the Badgers.
Illinois Fighting Illini (6.5)
The Big Ten West and Brett Bielema. Name a more iconic duo.
Illinois rode one of the nation’s best defenses (12.8 ppg allowed) to a second straight three-win jump. They won’t make another three-win jump, but they will again be a team that can give most anyone a game. They’ll drag you into their style of physical, grinding play.
Luke Altmyer will start at quarterback and has three of last year’s top four receivers back. Chase Brown and his 1,643 rushing yards have left, so Josh McCray and Reggie Love III will split the carries. They return three starters on the O-Line. They won’t be a thrill-a-minute offense, but they should be fine.
Jer’zhan Newton and Keith Randolph will anchor the D-Line, and they’re deep at linebacker. They’re replacing most of the secondary. They might not be the best defense in the West, but they’ll be close.
They have a bit of an oddball schedule, with a Week 9 bye. But, I like them to be at least 4-4 by then. This probably comes down to getting a split of the Minnesota and Iowa games. I’ll take the Over and say the Illini get to a seventh win.
The Big Ten West is a unique kind of interesting
It may be a conference without any truly great teams, and has become a bit of a “Little Brother” to the East division. To be honest, the West doesn’t play the most exciting brand of football. However, the division race usually comes down to the end. Having so many teams bunched up can make for a compelling season, in a weird way. It may be ugly, but it’s not preordained, that’s for sure.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
