We got a fairly typical warm-up in Week Zero; actual college football, with some good games, but no really compelling matchups. What will Week 1 bring? Well, the slate is a little bit more spicy, which is good. There are also some opportunities to make a few bucks so let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 1.
The 2023 college football season is upon us, at long last. That means two things: My wife will grow increasingly annoyed at my lack of productivity on Saturdays, and we’ll be making our best bets every week on The South Endzone Podcast. I’m off to a so-so start after the Week Zero break-in period, with a 2-1 record (thanks a lot, Vandy).
The Best Bets format is pretty simple. Here’s the rules:
1. These will be the picks I feel the most confident about. Maybe that’s two games, maybe it’s six or seven. Most likely, it’s something in between. But, it’s not a set arbitrary number.
2. I’ll identify my favorite underdog Moneyline bet each week.
3. I may even detail some games that I strongly considered but didn’t quite make the cut. Honorable Mentions, if you will. They might not be among my best bets, but you might find them among yours.
4. Unless specifically stated otherwise, picks Against the Spread (ATS) or on point totals (O/U) will represent a bet to win one unit ($50). So a bet for Team X to cover 7.5 points at -110 will be a $55 wager to win $50. Moneyline picks will be a $50 bet against whatever the odds are (ie. $50 at +130 to win $65).
5. All odds listed are from FanDuel sportsbook. Other books may have slightly different lines/totals/odds, so as always, shop around.
Make sense? Let’s get into it then.
West Virginia at Penn State (Under 51.5)
West Virginia is replacing their starting quarterback, leading rusher, and top four receivers from last year. So I’m pessimistic that they’ll be a 30-ppg type of offense again, particularly against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, are breaking in a new starter at quarterback, and will likely lean on the run game. Expect Nicholas Singleton and/or Kaytron Allen to feast. Penn State is a 20.5-point favorite, so the expectation here is they build an early lead, stifle the WV offense, and ride out a comfortable victory. Part of the rationale for including it in the best bets is a suspicion that it may take Vegas a couple of weeks to catch up to the new clock rules. Not stopping the clock after first downs (outside of the final two minutes of each half) will lead to fewer plays. If an offense is as run-heavy as I expect Penn State’s to be in this one, it should also lead to fewer points.
Clemson (-12.5) at Duke
I liked this one better when it opened at -10.5, obviously, but I still don’t think it’s enough. I get that Clemson is only 4-4 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. But, I think Duke has some schedule-based regression coming their way, and I think Clemson’s offense is going to be much better than the last two seasons. They were 12-6-1 ATS as road favorites the four years prior to 2021. And I think they’ll look more like that type of team this season. As I write this, over 90% of the money so far is on Clemson to cover this, so it may move higher if you wait.
South Alabama (+220) at Tulane
Embed from Getty ImagesI don’t feel as strongly about this one, so we’ll go half a unit here ($25 to win $55). But, I’m a believer in what Kane Wommack has going on in Mobile, so I’ll take a shot. The Jaguars bring back 18 starters from last year’s 10-3 team. Two of those losses came by a combined five points. They’re good on both lines of scrimmage, and return their top three rushers. They also bring back last year’s starting quarterback, Carter Bradley, and six of their top seven receivers. I think they could have a very, very good season.
While I think Tulane will still be very good, they lost some key pieces from last year. Tyjae Spears, who ran for 1,591 yards and 19 TD, is gone. So are their top two receivers from 2022. I think Michael Pratt is fantastic, but I also think there’s a real chance Tulane takes a step back this season. So, we’ll try to double our money and back the Jaguars.
Boise State at Washington (-14.5)
I went back and forth on including this one or putting it in the “honorable mentions” below. I eventually decided to give this one a go. Washington is my pick to win the Pac-12, and a CFP sleeper. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr returns and has two 1,000-yard receivers back as well, Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. The offense that scored 39.7 ppg last year (7th in the country) may be even better. Boise, meanwhile, won 10 games last season on the strength of a very good defense (19.5 ppg allowed). But they don’t bring a ton of those guys back, and lost two all-conference corners. The Over is attractive here as well (58.5 points) but I’ll just go with the Huskies. Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer is 9-1 ATS in non-Conference games; meanwhile Boise head coach Andy Avalos is just 3-6 (including 0-5 last year).
A couple others I considered
Ohio State (-28.5) at Indiana: I don’t like large favorites this early on, but I came close on this one. Indiana is going to be putrid on defense. Just abysmal. They’ll probably be bad on offense too, for that matter. Ohio State has beaten them by 40+ three of the last four years. But they’re also 3-5-1 ATS as a road favorite the last two seasons. In most cases, a large favorite, just like they are here. So as tempting as it was to include in the best bets, I’ll leave it alone.
Florida State (+2.5) vs LSU: This neutral-site matchup is the highest-profile game of Week 1, and was oh-so-close to making the best bets list. But for as much as I’m on the Seminoles bandwagon this year, I just couldn’t quite pull the trigger. Even with Maason Smith missing the game (example #3,728 of the NCAA sucking), LSU’s defense is going to be ferocious. They have arguably the best QB/WR combo in the SEC with Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers. Unless the line creeps up over three points, I’ll just sit back and enjoy what should be a great game and not touch it.
So those are the picks for the week. Here’s to a great college football season. May your beer be cold, your hot wings spicy, and your parlays a winner. Hopefully my wife doesn’t kick me out between now and January.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
