As the Bulldogs chase a three-peat, they’re getting plenty of respect from Vegas (and poll voters) and the SEC East seems like a foregone conclusion. But, there are other teams who are plenty interesting. Tennessee had a big season, and South Carolina has exceeded expectations two years running. Kentucky is looking for a bounce-back year, and Vanderbilt is… well… Vanderbilt.
So we’re finishing up with our Win Totals predictions on The South Endzone Podcast, and here are my final seven picks. Thankfully, it’s over, because that means it’s time for actual football. Let’s get into it.
**As always, the Win Totals cited here are from FanDuel. Other sportsbooks may have slightly different numbers, and/or varying odds. Shop around!**
Florida Gators (5.5)
2022 Florida was kind of a wishy-washy team in Billy Napier‘s first season. The ups and downs seemed to follow the inconsistencies of the quarterback, Anthony Richardson. What does that mean for 2023 with Richardson gone and Graham Mertz under center? Napier has prioritized upgrading the roster both through high school recruiting and the transfer portal. For the most part, he’s done that, but he certainly isn’t finished.
The offense returns the top two running backs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. Ricky Pearsall averaged 20 yards per reception and led the team in receiving yards and touchdown receptions. But he’s the only returning receiver with more than 200 yards last season. Only one starter returns on the O-Line, but they supplemented with experienced transfers. How well the offense functions will obviously hinge on Mertz and how well he takes care of the football (21 INT last two seasons at Wisconsin).
The defense was subpar for the third straight season (28.8 ppg allowed), particularly against the run (178 rush yards/game allowed). If the Gators are going to have any chance of finishing in the top half of the East, they have to improve defensively. The front seven looks better in terms of both talent and depth, despite losing the top five tacklers. They return both starting corners. The big question will be how they improve the pass rush (23 sacks in 2022).
Their schedule might be the toughest one in the country. I think preseason polls are useless, to be clear. But just to illustrate what they’re up against, five of the Top 14 teams are on Florida’s schedule. The closest thing to an “easy” stretch is Charlotte, at Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Outside of that, they have a top-10 team basically every other week. I think Napier is a good coach and will succeed in Gainesville long-term if he gets a little bit of time. And he’s going to need it because I don’t think they make a bowl game this year. I’m taking the Under.
Missouri Tigers (6.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe good news here is that in his fourth season, this is probably Eliah Drinkwitz‘s best team. The bad news is, that’s not saying much (17-19 through three seasons). Can they break through for their first winning season since 2018?
They bring back their top three rushers from last year, all of whom totaled at least 400 yards. That includes quarterback Brady Cook, who was also a solid passer (65%, 2,724 yds 14 TD). They lost their top two receivers, but Luther Burden was a highly-recruited prospect and showed promise as a true freshman. Four starters on the O-Line return, so the offense has a very real chance to improve on their 24.8 ppg scoring average.
The defense improved in 2022 by about a touchdown per game. They have some experience up front and in the linebacker corps and return their top four tacklers. They’ve brought in some transfers to improve depth, and the front seven looks to be a strength. Also returning are all four starting defensive backs, including safety Jaylon Carlies, who led the team in tackles and added three interceptions.
Their schedule is no cakewalk, either, despite only four “true” road games. But the home slate includes LSU, Tennessee, and Kansas State. They should start at least 4-1 before LSU comes to town. It looks like they’ll need to win three of four games against Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, and Arkansas. I’ll lean towards the Under here, but I think they make another bowl game.
Tennessee Volunteers (9.5)
9.5 wins seems pretty sturdy for a team that has games against Georgia and at Alabama on the schedule while replacing the pieces they’re replacing.
Gone are Hendon Hooker, Jaylin Hyatt, and RT Darnell Wright. But, Joe Milton is a freakishly-talented athlete who could put up eye-popping numbers in this offense if he puts it all together. Hyatt is gone but the Vols return three other receivers who had at least 400 yards last season. They also return their top two rushers, Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. And despite Wright moving on, they return three starters on the line and added depth. They probably won’t repeat last year’s 46.1 ppg scoring average, but they’ll still be very good.
The defense was somewhat underrated, only allowing 22.8 ppg last year. Three starters in the secondary return, and between transfers and part-time contributors from last season, they have plenty of experience and reasonably good depth. Three of the top four tacklers are back, led by Aaron Beasley (76 tackles, 3 sacks, 10 TFL).
They’ll be heavy favorites in their first five games before the bye. Texas A&M at home is a tricky game; given the athleticism they possess on defense, they’re one of the few teams that may be able to slow Tennessee down. Added to that, it’s directly before the road trip to Alabama, which lends itself to a “trap game” feel. They should win the three games after Bama before Georgia comes to town, and close with Vandy. I’ll reluctantly take the Over here.
South Carolina Gamecocks (6.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesSouth Carolina has exceeded preseason projections the last two seasons. Based on this win total, they have a chance to do it again.
Spencer Rattler returns after throwing for 3,026 yards and 18 touchdowns. Antwane Wells Jr was the team’s leading receiver, and he’s back as well. He’s joined by highly-regarded true freshman Nyckoles Harbor, who is 6’5″, 230 lbs, and has freakish athleticism. Depth is an issue, but there is talent there. They lose their top two rushers from last year, but added a two-time Division II All-American. The big concern will be an O-Line that wasn’t great (31 sacks allowed, 3.8 yards/carry) that only brings back two starters.
The defense slipped a little bit after making a massive improvement in 2021. They only return one starter up front and one amongst the linebackers. Four players in the secondary got spot starts last year due to injury but weren’t first-teamers on a full time basis. They seem unlikely to improve here.
The schedule is daunting, given the non-conference slate that included North Carolina and Clemson. They also get road games against the top two teams in the East (Georgia, Tennessee) and Texas A&M. There are six home games that are pretty “winnable” though, plus a trip to Missouri. At the end of the day, I’ll bet that Shane Beamer keeps it going and the Gamecocks get to seven wins.
Vanderbilt Commodores (3.5)
Vanderbilt finished 5-7 last year and brings back a lot of that team, which makes 3.5 wins seem a little low. Then you look and see that they got outscored by 137 on the year and think they might have overachieved and/or gotten a little lucky.
A.J. Swann was far from explosive (6.4 yards per attempt) but took care of the ball (only two INT). And they return their top three receivers, led by Will Sheppard (776 yds, 9 TD). They are extremely inexperienced at running back, with Patrick Smith and his 151 yards in 2022 being top returnee. But they bring back four starters from an O-Line that was improved in 2022. They increased their scoring average by almost nine full points last year (24.6 ppg from 15.8 in 2021). While I wouldn’t expect a similar bump, they shouldn’t drop off, either.
Defensively is where the real issue was, and probably still is. They allowed 36 points a game, and I don’t see anything to make me think it will be a lot better, if at all. They bring back three starters on the defensive line and two linebackers. But that front gave up 171 rushing yards per game and only totaled 17 sacks on the year. The secondary is experienced, with three starters back. But unless the pass rush improves, those guys are going to be at a disadvantage, no matter how experienced they are.
They should start out 3-1 before they get to the conference schedule, but where is that fourth win? It’s not against Georgia, Tennessee, or Ole Miss, I can tell you that much. They’ll be underdogs in their final eight games. Can they upset Florida or Kentucky again? I’ll say no, and take Under 3.5 for the Commodores, who I expect to finish last in the East.
Kentucky Wildcats (7.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesIf I had to pick a team in the East to finish the highest relative to their preseason expectation, it would be these guys. There’s a lot of arrows pointing up.
They lost starting quarterback Will Levis but I’d argue they may have improved the position with the addition of NC State transfer Devin Leary. They return their top five receivers, led by Barion Brown (628 yds, 4 TD as a true freshman). Four starters return up front, and they added some transfers and are much deeper than last year. They lose star RB Christopher Rodriguez but added Vanderbilt transfer Re’Mahn Davis (1,042 yds). And offensive coordinator Liam Cohen returns; when he ran the offense in 2021 they averaged 32 points. The offense should be much, much better than last year’s 20.4 ppg average.
The defensive line looks to be in good shape, led by Deone Walker, who was 2nd-team All-SEC as a true freshman in 2022. They look a little thin at linebacker, but the starters are experienced. They lost three starters in the secondary but supplemented with transfers who have good size and athleticism but are inexperienced. Kentucky has allowed 22 ppg or fewer four of the last five years, and I expect this will be one of the better defenses in the East yet again.
They should start 4-0 to open up, and Florida at home is winnable. So is Missouri two weeks later, after a likely loss at Georgia. Post-bye is where it gets tough. Tennessee, at Mississippi State, Alabama, at South Carolina, and at Louisville. But Mark Stoops has a knack for squeezing the most out of his roster, and it wouldn’t shock me to see them get to nine wins. But I really like them to get to eight wins and hit the Over.
Georgia Bulldogs (11.5)
We’ll finish out with the two-time defending national champions. I won’t go into a ton of detail here because you probably have already heard everything you need to know about Georgia. Besides, I’ve already written about why I think they’ll win the National Championship for the third straight year.
The offense will be fine despite some of the departures. They’re deep at running back, deep at receiver, and have the best tight end in the country. They’re elite on both lines of scrimmage, return four of their top five tacklers, and haven’t allowed more than 20.0 points per game since 2016.
The schedule is the most friendly one in the East, by far. They’ll be favored by double digits in at least 10 games. The two toughest games are probably Ole Miss at home and at Tennessee. Those games are back-to-back, but there’s no good reason they should lose either.
So yes, I’ll go ahead and pick Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs to go 12-0 through the regular season and hit the Over.
The East division has a bit of a fait accompli feeling to it, but should still provide for some compelling games. There are five likely bowl teams, and someone could absolutely play spoiler in this division (like South Carolina did last year, twice). Can’t wait to see it play out on the field.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
