During this year’s trade deadline, it seemed as though the Seattle Mariners were packing in their season. At the time of the deadline, the Mariners had been inconsistent all season. They were in third place in the AL West, and 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. Seattle flipped its longtime closer to the Diamondbacks, DFA’d an infielder, and traded another outfielder to the Giants. Aside from those moves, Seattle didn’t make any trade major acquisitions. However, given how well they’ve played so far in the second half of the year, I believe they can snag the final wild-card spot.
I Thought They Gave Up
Embed from Getty ImagesA typical surefire sign a team is throwing in the towel on their season is when they trade their closer. Seattle did this when it shipped closer Paul Sewald to the Arizona Diamondbacks for three other players. Struggling infielder Kolten Wong was designated for assignment that same day and later released. Seattle would also trade away AJ Pollock to the Giants for cash consideration and a player to be named later. The Mariners would make no other major trade for the rest of the trade deadline.
Seattle Got Hot
Embed from Getty ImagesHowever, despite trading away Paul Sewald, the Mariners ripped off eight straight wins. This slingshot them into the postseason picture and now trail the Toronto Blue Jays by two games. The big thing favoring the Mariners is they own the tiebreaker against the Jays due to having more inter-division success. Both teams also will not be playing each other for the rest of the season. This means Toronto has less control of its destiny than Seattle.
The Mariners Have A More Favorable Schedule Down The Stretch
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Mariners also have a more favorable down the stretch. The combined winning percentage of the opponents they play for the rest of the season is .480. They play only 20 games against playoff contenders which include games against the Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros. Seattle plays 14 games against struggling teams like the Royals, White Sox, Athletics, Mets, Angels, and Reds. Both the Royals and Athletics are two of the worst teams in baseball this season. It should be noted that all seven of the games against the Rangers are toward the end of the season. Texas could easily have the division, or a playoff spot locked up by then and might rest everyday players.
Toronto’s Offense Has Underperformed This Season
Embed from Getty ImagesDespite having all-star caliber players in Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Whit Merrifield, Toronto’s offense has been underwhelming. As a team, Toronto is only averaging 4.48 runs per game. This is a huge drop-off from last season when the Jays were fourth in all of baseball averaging 4.78 runs per game. Daulton Varsho has been a bust, Alejandro Kirk has looked like a one-year wonder, Guerrero Jr. is having another offensive regression, George Springer still doesn’t look worth the $25 million a season, and Matt Chapman only has 15 home runs. Toronto’s biggest issue is they only have an OPS of .694 with runners in scoring position. Only the Royals and Athletics have put up a worse OPS when runners have an opportunity to score.
Too Much Pressure On The Pitching Staff?
Despite the spectacular fall of Alek Manoah, Toronto has one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. However, it has had to shoulder the load due to Toronto’s offensive struggles. Given how much Toronto has had to rely on its pitching staff, you can’t help but wonder if it’ll be affected by overuse come September.
Seattle Needs Its New Look Bullpen To Get It Together
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile Seattle has been able to put together great pitching and consistent offense since Sewald was traded, the only concern is their bullpen. Since Sewald was traded, new closer Andres Munoz has struggled in his new role. One reason for their recent three-game skid was their bullpen is probably feeling the effect of Paul Sewald now being gone. Recently, Munoz was tagged for three runs and blew a save against an awful Royals offense. It would take the Mariners extra innings to put their three-game losing streak to bed. If Seattle can get it together with their new-look bullpen, then they’ll have little trouble catching Toronto.
Remember Seattle Came Back On The Blue Jays Once Before
Embed from Getty ImagesWith Toronto’s offense underperforming and having to overuse their pitching staff; Seattle is in the perfect position to overtake them in the wildcard provided their bullpen performs better. The Mariners have a more favorable schedule and haven’t had to overwork their pitching staff. After all, this is the same Blue Jays team that choked away a 7-1 lead in the AL Wild Card game against the Mariners last year. I am sure Seattle wants another crack at the postseason after giving Houston all it could handle despite being swept. Everything seems to be favoring Seattle to overtake Toronto for the final playoff spot.
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