On Thursday, we will begin the 2023 NFL regular season. Every football fan from Maine to California will have their opinion on how their team will perform this season. This includes the number of wins their respective teams have in ceiling (the most) and floor (the least). Now that the preseason has concluded, it’s time to assess the wins ceiling and floor for every AFC team in 2023.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Wins Ceiling 13 – Wins Floor 10
After four consecutive playoff appearances, expectations are higher than ever for the Bills to get to the Super Bowl. Josh Allen will do all he can on offense, but will he be doing too much again? Defensively, Von Miller returns after an ACL injury sank his 2022 season. Their schedule is tough, but so is the schedule of their division rivals.
Miami Dolphins
Wins Ceiling: 11 – Wins Floor: 8
The quarterback position for the Dolphins will be the biggest factor affecting their win ceiling and floor. Their situation was in flux last year with mounting injuries, most notably Tua Tagovailoa. They have game-breaking speed on offense with Tyreek Hill and Jaden Waddle. Their success on defense will depend on the secondary. They traded for Jalen Ramsey, but he’s out until mid-December.
New England Patriots
Wins Ceiling: 10 – Wins Floor: 7
The Patriots missed the playoffs for the second time in three seasons in 2023. Now, they’re at a crossroads: do they stay in mediocrity or rebuild? Head coach Bill Belichick knows how to scheme against his opponent, but does he trust quarterback Mac Jones? How Jones performs will be a determining factor in the Patriots’ win ceiling and floor.
New York Jets
Wins Ceiling: 12 – Wins Floor: 9
The Jets had a fourth ranked defense and a 25th ranked offense in 2023. The team brought in Aaron Rodgers to bring the offense to a new level. Running back Breece Hall returns after an ACL tear brought his rookie season to a halt. The biggest factor of the Jets win ceiling and floor won’t be Rodgers: it’ll be how healthy the team can stay after an early bye week.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Wins Ceiling: 11 – Wins Floor: 9
Boy, are the Ravens happy to have quarterback Lamar Jackson back, especially after how last season ended. The offense was punchless following Jackson’s knee injury that ended his season. Will new offensive coordinator Todd Monken – who coordinated the University of Georgia’s offense to two consecutive national championships – revive Jackson’s career. How the new offense does will certainly have an affect on Baltimore’s win ceiling and floor.
Cincinnati Bengals
Wins Ceiling: 13 – Wins Floor: 10
The Bengals were five minutes away from repeating as AFC champions. Their offense is powered by quarterback Joe Burrow, running back Joe Mixon, and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The biggest determining factor affecting the Bengals’ win ceiling and floor will be their retooled defense. This is especially true after losing Jesse Bates and Von Bell.
Cleveland Browns
Wins Ceiling: 10 – Wins Floor: 7
The Browns had a rather forgettable 2022 season. Outside of the best season of running back Nick Chubb’s career and defensive lineman Myles Garrett recording 15 sacks, it was forgettable. How the defense gets off the field and the offense stay on the field will determine the Browns’ ceiling and floor – and the future of head coach Kevin Stefanski.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wins Ceiling: 11 – Wins Floor: 8
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the Steelers with a record above .500 in the Mike Tomlin Era. The offense came to life with quarterback Kenny Pickett leading the way. The defensive front seven – featuring T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward – is monstrous, but the secondary is inexperienced. How Pickett and a young secondary perform will determine the wins ceiling and floor.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Wins Ceiling: 8 – Wins Floor: 5
After failing to secure the number one overall pick in the 2023 draft, the Texans got a good consolation prize in C.J. Stroud. They also managed to trade up and select Will Anderson, Jr. at the third overall pick. This is a young lineup that head coach DeMeco Ryans can build from the ground up. They won’t be exciting, but how they manage a soft schedule will determine their wins ceiling and floor.
Indianapolis Colts
Wins Ceiling: 9 – Wins Floor: 6
Like their division rival in Houston, the Colts will be starting fresh with a new head coach (Shane Steichen) and quarterback (Anthony Richardson). Running back Jonathan Taylor will start the first four games of the season on the PUP list, which won’t help. But linebacker Shaquille Leonard will return to help the defense. The onus on the wins ceiling and floor will be how both sides of the line perform.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Wins Ceiling: 12 – Wins Floor: 9
The Doug Pederson Era began with a division title and a playoff berth. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence improved from his second season. He could be even better, especially with Calvin Ridley returning from suspension. Lawrence will take the offense far, but it’s the defense that will be the biggest factor in the Jags’ wins ceiling and floor.
Tennessee Titans
Wins Ceiling: 11 – Wins Floor: 8
The Titans began the 2022 season with a 7-3 record – and then lost their final seven games. How much more can head coach Mike Vrabel get out of an aging roster? Running back Derrick Henry will shoulder most of the offensive load for the Titans. The defense will need to stay healthy, which will be the biggest factor in the wins ceiling and floor.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Wins Ceiling: 10 – Wins Floor: 7
Last season, the Broncos brought in quarterback Russell Wilson and handed him a monster contract. That move backfired. The Broncos went back to square one, hiring Sean Payton out of retirement. The Broncos have good enough of a defense to stay competitive, but Wilson’s co-existence with Payton will be the biggest factor in their wins ceiling and floor.
Kansas City Chiefs
Wins Ceiling: 13 – Wins Floor: 10
For the second time in four seasons, the Chiefs reached the pinnacle of the NFL and won the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is going to do Patrick Mahomes things. The Chiefs defense is better than pundits think, though the contract situation with defensive lineman Chris Jones looms large. And the Chiefs always seem to retool in the right areas. Even if they reach their wins floor, they’re still a playoff team.
Las Vegas Raiders
Wins Ceiling: 9 – Wins Floor: 6
After the Derek Carr Era ended, the Raiders brought in Jimmy Garoppalo – formerly of San Francisco – to work with head coach Josh McDaniels. They avoided disaster by making peace with running back Josh Jacobs. Defensively, the Raiders are nothing special, even with Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby. The wins ceiling and floor will certainly go with how the offense gels.
Los Angeles Chargers
Wins Ceiling: 11 – Wins Floor: 8
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has a luxury of options at his disposal. The defense – featuring Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James – is just as talented. They should be a Super Bowl contender – if not for the decision making of head coach Brandon Staley (see last season’s Wild Card), which will be the primary factor in the wins ceiling and floor.
