The 2023 NASCAR Playoffs kicked off with a bang last weekend at Darlington. The track that’s too tough to tame was kind to the #5 car Kyle Larson, as he took victory lane and secured himself into the next round of the playoffs. Not that Larson was on the verge of being eliminated or anything.
For 15 other drivers though, the possibilities are endless. Whether that be inserting themselves into the next round, or getting eliminated after a couple of bad races. The round of 16 pushes onward at Kansas Speedway.
In the spring, #11 Denny Hamlin was able to edge out Larson in a close last-lap finish. And last September, it was Bubba Wallace in the #45 car that played spoiler. This time, Wallace has real stakes on the line and not some owner’s championship.
Let’s go through the drivers below the cut line, and some guys dangerously close to it. Some are obviously safer than others, but let’s begin at the bottom, shall we?
#34 Michael McDowell (-19)
Embed from Getty ImagesI think a big part of what makes a “feel-good story” is that you weren’t expecting to see it in the first place. Michael McDowell being here in the NASCAR playoffs is great. There’s nobody who wasn’t pulling for him to do well and make it out of the round of 16 and do some damage. But I think at -19 with three races to go in the round, it’s probably not likely that McDowell makes it out of here. In 24 races at Kansas, he’s got just eight finishes in the top 20. At Bristol, one top-10 finish and five other top-20 finishes in 23 races. And at Texas, he’s got five top-20 finishes in 24 races. I won’t say never, but McDowell seems like the longest of the long shots without a road course to help him out.
#47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-4)
Embed from Getty ImagesAll season long I’ve tried to will Ricky Stenhouse Jr back into victory lane. He started the season off right with a major win at the Daytona 500. But since then? He’s been kind of middle of the pack. He’s only had one other top-five finish at Bristol Dirt. Which is going to be a little different than Bristol next weekend. And other than that his highest finish has been seventh. Earlier this year in Kansas Stenhouse placed 12th. Overall at the track, he’s got one top-10, and a dozen top-20 finishes. At Texas, he has several top-20s but nothing else, and historically at Bristol, it’s a much better picture with four top-five finishes. Obviously, at just -4, Stenhouse can make anything happen here. But he’s got stiff competition ahead with some elite drivers.
#4 Kevin Harvick (-3)
Embed from Getty ImagesOne of those elite drivers is the legendary #4 Kevin Harvick. He might have been in contention for the win at Darlington last weekend if not for an ill-timed caution right before he hit pit road. It’s led to some discussion about changing rules to ensure this doesn’t happen again. I’ll leave those opinions to you the reader. But the situation doesn’t change that Harvick is at risk of being a first-round exit in his last season as a driver. Harvick at Kansas in the spring finished 11th, and he’s posted three wins and nine additional top-five finishes. I wouldn’t put it past Harvick to collect his checkered flag and lock himself in for another round. Frankly, I couldn’t. But 2023 hasn’t been the year Harvick wanted.
#23 Bubba Wallace Jr (-1)
Embed from Getty ImagesAnother driver who’s won at Kansas is Bubba Wallace. As we mentioned last year he took the #45 car to victory lane and played some spoiler for other drivers. He had an early caution at Darlington last weekend that thwarted his efforts but still finished seventh. Wallace is a serious player in these playoffs and Kansas has been a good track for him historically. On top of the win in 2022, he finished fourth in the spring and he’s got another top-10 under his belt. Bubba Wallace should gain some serious ground in the NASCAR playoffs after Kansas. If he can’t though? Bristol and Texas don’t scream promise with just one top-20 finish at each of those tracks.
#20 Christopher Bell (+1)
Embed from Getty ImagesChristopher Bell had undoubtedly one of the fastest cars at Darlington last weekend, and if not for an early smack into the wall, he might’ve won the thing too. He should be far greater than +1 on the cutoff line but a 23rd-place finish without any stage points will do that. In the spring at Kansas, Bell finished sixth in the first stage but got wrecked and finished 36th. In seven races he does have two top-five finishes and another two top-10s in seven races. He hasn’t shown a ton at any of the tracks in this round of 16, but he’s an elite driver that should have a big bounce back and surge into the higher levels of the point standings.
#22 Joey Logano (+3)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe defending champ finds himself a little closer to the cut-line than we might have predicted. It’s been an up-and-down 2023 for the #22 team. With just one win on the season, some could call it disappointing. But he also has seven top-five finishes and heated up late in the season with several finishes inside the top 15, including 12th place at Darlington last weekend. Logano is 10 points back of Chastain on the NASCAR playoffs standings and could look to surge with Bell with a good outing at these upcoming tracks. At Kansas specifically, Logano finished sixth in the spring. And in 28 races at this track, he’s got three wins and five finishes inside the top five. Much like Harvick, the veteran has success here and will look to put it to good use this weekend.
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