Coulda, should, woulda… Week 3’s Best Bets caught some truly awful breaks. I’m not sure how our luck could have been any worse, honestly. Three late scores in garbage time, all by backups and with less than a minute remaining, led to a 2-3 record on the week. You can find the gory details in Monday night’s South Endzone Podcast, but suffice it to say, I did not have a good time Saturday. Heartbreaking stuff, really.
However, we press on. This week offers a much more compelling slate of games, with huge matchups all over the place. Alabama-Ole Miss. Notre Dame-Ohio State. Florida State-Clemson. Even Oregon-Colorado is a matchup of Top-20 teams.
And we’ll be betting on none of them. I’ll watch them, certainly. But I don’t feel strongly about any of those lines (Oregon -21.5 was tempting), so my action is elsewhere.
Sam Houston State at Houston (Under 38.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesHouston is averaging just under 24 points per game so far in this young season, a number that is propped up by a 41-point outburst in a loss to Rice. They’ve combined for 31 points in their other two games. Sam Houston State, for their part, has only allowed 27 points through two games. They’re also looking for their first passing touchdown of the season. For that matter, the Bearkats (not a typo) don’t have a rushing touchdown yet, either. They don’t have a touchdown of any sort, in fact, totaling three points on the year. Maybe that changes this week, maybe not. But I’m still expecting a low-scoring affair.
James Madison (-6.5) at Utah State
James Madison just keeps winning. After going 33-5 in their last three seasons at the FCS level, they went 8-3 in their first year of FBS football. And they’re off to a 3-0 start this year. For those of you keeping track at home, they’ve won 44 of their previous 52 games. More importantly, they’re 18-10 against the spread (ATS) since the start of 2021. As the ancient Tibetan proverb states: Great Teams Cover. There’s a decent chance they show up in my Best Bets more than once before the season’s done.
Coastal Carolina (-6.5) vs Georgia State
Embed from Getty ImagesAh, yes, old reliable. Every time I think I’m done, the Chanticleers suck me back in. I rode Coastal to a 7-2 record in 2021 and followed that up with a 6-3 run in 2022, between ATS and Over/Under bets. Rode ’em like a horse. I wanted to wait a few games to hop on the wagon again, given the coaching change and accompanying offensive scheme overhaul. And I’m encouraged, given their 2-1 start (3-0 ATS).
The home team in this matchup has lost the last six games and is 0-5-1 ATS since 2017, which scares me. But I can’t pass it up when it’s less than a touchdown.
BYU at Kansas (Over 55.5)
BYU is averaging 31 points a game, and Kansas is just under 38. The Cougars are only allowing 16 points per game, but that’s thrown off a little by the level of competition; in their one Power 5 game they allowed 31 to Arkansas. The same holds true, to a lesser extent, for the Jayhawks. I’d expect this one to creep up towards 60.
Oregon State (-2.5) at Washington State
We’re adding a Pac-12 slugfest to our Best Bets this week. It’s actually one of six matchups between ranked teams. After a 10-win season in 2022, I thought the Beavers were somewhat underrated coming into the year. It looks like they’re starting to get their due, and they square off against another team that is looking for some respect. Washington State is also off to a 3-0 start, most notably beating Wisconsin 31-22 in Week 2. But I like the Beavers to win by at least a field goal, leaning on that stout defense and a strong ground game.
UAB (+41.5) at Georgia
Embed from Getty ImagesGeorgia is going to win this game. They’re going to do so by a comfortable margin. There’s a very real chance that they won’t give up any points. But after getting off to slow starts offensively in all three games (10 first-quarter points this season), it’s fair to wonder if they can hit this big of a margin. They go to Auburn in Week 5, so it’s also fair to wonder how hard they’ll get after it once they’re up four touchdowns in this one. So I’ll take another bite from last week’s apple and take a ton of points against a team that has a much bigger game coming up.
Week 3 Best Bets: 2-3 ATS, -1.3 Units
2023 Season Best Bets: 6-9 ATS, 0-2 Upset Picks, -2.5 Units
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
