We’ve been waiting all summer for college football to start and finally got a full weekend of games. After months and months of speculation, we got to watch it all play out on the field. So the temptation to make wide-ranging, meaningful conclusions based on what happens in Week 1 is very real.
I promise I won’t get too crazy with the proclamations. However, we did see some things that may be instructive for how the rest of the year may go for some teams. We also saw a whole lot of things that don’t tell us much, even if we think they did. People with a background in statistics and data science would call this separating the signal from the noise. So what was real and what was not?
Colorado Is for Real
Embed from Getty ImagesI mean… maybe? Maybe not? This is obviously the hottest topic in college football today. Given the hype train that has followed Deion Sanders (or he’s pulled it behind him, your call), that’s understandable. But I’m not sure that a thrilling 45-42 win over TCU tells us everything we might want to know. Yes, Shedeur Sanders was fantastic. Travis Hunter was otherworldly. Offensive coordinator Sean Lewis called a brilliant game. And they bounced back repeatedly in the fourth quarter every time TCU re-took the lead.
But how good is TCU? It’s a vastly different team from the one that went 13-2 and made it to the national championship game. Las Vegas had them at 7.5 wins. The preseason AP poll had them at 17, and plenty of people scoffed at that. They allowed 29 points per game last year and weren’t expected to be any better defensively this year. Would you be surprised to look up at the end of the year and see they’re 5-7? I wouldn’t.
Now, I’m not saying that Week 1 performance was all a mirage. Colorado is likely better than many people (myself included) gave them credit for. They’re fast, they look better up front than most expected, and they look well-coached. I’m just saying let’s pump the brakes. Shedeur Sanders isn’t going to throw for 500 yards every game. Hunter isn’t going to play that type of game every week. The other team isn’t going to turn it over in the red zone twice and continually shoot themselves in the foot every game. Colorado made the plays they needed to make and avoided the mistakes that TCU made. They deserved to win. That doesn’t make them legit Pac-12 contenders.
South Carolina Can’t Block Anybody
This one is probably real. The offensive line was pretty “meh” last year and was a clear concern coming into the season. Then, in Week 1, they gave up nine sacks, sixteen tackles for loss, and put up -2 rushing yards on 31 carries. That included a 15-yard scramble by Spencer Rattler. And they did that against a North Carolina defense that is not regarded as being particularly ferocious. When you play the type of schedule South Carolina plays, you can’t be bad up front. And it really, really looks like they are. It could be a long season in Columbia.
Georgia’s Game against UT-Martin Showed That They’re Vulnerable
Georgia beat FCS opponent UT-Martin, 48-7. That wasn’t the focus during or even immediately after the game, particularly on the MENSA convention that is college football message boards. Twitter (or X, in the parlance of our times) was just as silly with the immediate hot takes. It was 7-0 after a quarter, and a Georgia field goal right before the half made it 17-0 at the break. Must mean that they won’t be able to hang with Tennessee or Ole Miss, right?
Oh, how quickly we forget. Last year, after a Week 1 obliteration of Oregon, Georgia came out flat against another FCS opponent, Samford. They weren’t uber-impressive two weeks later against Kent State. But they were never in danger of losing either of those games. If anything, it just showed a little complacency and lack of focus. It’s tough to really get engaged when you’re favored by 40 points, I guess. But when they knew they had to play well, they did. Uninspiring games against inferior opponents didn’t stop them from winning the other 13 games they played.
The Bulldogs definitely showed that they need to improve some things. But they held some guys out and ran what looked like a very scaled-down offensive scheme. They have another chance to work out the kinks against Ball State before conference play starts. Maybe they meet preseason expectations, maybe they don’t. Let’s just not try to determine that by a Week 1 game against UT-Martin, okay?
Florida Is Doomed
Embed from Getty ImagesThere are definitely things I saw that should concern Gator fans. But they were underdogs even with Utah QB Cam Rising ruled out. Does a 24-11 road loss to the Utes, in a game they were expected to lose, end all hope for Florida to have a decent season? In and of itself, not really. But why did they lose? What went wrong, and is it instructive for how the rest of the season may play out? That’s the real question for Billy Napier and Co. after Week 1.
The biggest problem, much like South Carolina, is that they played poorly up front. Graham Mertz was sacked five times and under duress all game. Aside from Mertz’s sack yardage, Florida ran 12 times for 43 yards. Including Mertz’s sacks and his 11-yard scramble, they totaled 21 carries for 13 yards. Gross. Despite that, Florida was able to move the ball. They just stalled out once they got to the red zone.
That’s where the other glaring issue reared its ugly head: untimely penalties. Two drives ended in field goal attempts due to a sack or a penalty. More egregiously, they forced a Utah punt on 4th and 3 took an illegal substitution penalty (two players with the same jersey number). That resulted in a free first down, and Utah scored four plays later to take a 14-3 lead.
Drastically improving O-Line play during the season is probably unrealistic. They have what they have there. But the mistakes, both by players and coaching staff, can be cleaned up. At least a little bit. Mertz looked fine, all things considered, and he was the biggest question mark about this team for a lot of people. They looked like a group that could at least compete with a lot of teams as long as they weren’t their own worst enemy. Don’t rule them out for a six or seven-win season just yet.
Week 1 Is One Week of Many
You’ll have plenty more chances to evaluate/denigrate teams as the season goes on. Pace yourself. There’s a lot of season to go, and a lot can change. Oregon didn’t look like a team that could win 10 games last year after their curb-stomping at the hands of Georgia in Week 1. Anthony Richardson looked like a Heisman candidate. USC looked like they could play defense. Give it some time, there’s still a lot to learn before it’s all said and done.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
