Bobby Bowden once described building a college football program as, “First you lose big, then you lose small, then you win small, then you win big”. A slow start to the season is forcing us to take a similar approach with our weekly Best Bets.
We lost big in Week 1, going 1-3. We actually won small in Week 2; a smaller bet in the Nebraska/Colorado game allowed us to make a slight profit in terms of units won despite a 3-3 record. But we’re still losing small on the season so far. Let’s turn it around.
Week 3 is, to put it plainly, not a very attractive slate of games. It’s bad. Tons of double-digit favorites. Betting aside, it doesn’t provide many compelling matchups. I’ll still watch, of course, much to my wife’s chagrin. But it does make identifying this week’s Best Bets more difficult.
So we’re employing a different strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.
Central Michigan (+34.5) at Notre Dame
Western Michigan (+28.5) at Iowa
Georgia Tech (+19.5) at Ole Miss
I’m not going to break down these matchups individually. I’m grouping them all together because I’m picking these underdogs to cover for the same reason. Notre Dame plays Ohio State in Week 4. Iowa goes to Penn State. And Ole Miss heads to Tuscaloosa to face the Crimson Tide. These three are all look-ahead games.
Marcus Freeman doesn’t care if he wins by 35 or by 28 or by 17. Ditto for Lane Kiffin. They care that they win the game and that they don’t get anybody hurt. If ever there was a time to call off the dogs early, it’s the week before the Buckeyes come to town. Plus, I’m not that confident that Iowa can score 29 points on anybody, let alone win by that margin. So we’ll take a shot that we can hit on at least two of these. I personally would not parlay/tease these three, but if you like the numbers enough, have at it I guess.
Washington (-16.5) at Michigan State: A Best Bets Moral Dilemma
Embed from Getty ImagesI’ll admit, this feels a little dirty, with the turmoil surrounding Michigan State and head coach Mel Tucker. I wondered if I was being a little too self-serving in the face of an issue that is far bigger than football. But the events of the past three days will have an undeniable effect on the team, one way or the other. What kind of focus will they have in the midst of upheaval when a top-10 opponent rolls into town? Will they instead rally around a common cause and play inspired football? Everyone will have their own opinion on betting this game, to be sure. There are no right answers or wrong answers. Only your answer.
In fairness to myself, this line was at 12.5 when I went to bed Saturday night, having already identified it as a Best Bets candidate. Michigan State’s pass defense has been atrocious for two years. The Huskies are a terrible matchup for them, with Michael Penix Jr. throwing it all over the field. Penix has 859 yards and eight TD through two games. If I loved it at -12.5 when everything appeared hunky-dory in East Lansing, should I feel like a heartless asshole for liking it at -16, given the circumstances? Again, your mileage may vary.
I’m taking it. Ultimately, I think Washington is the far superior team. If the line were already at 16 on Saturday night and none of the Tucker stuff happened, I think I still would have taken it. So I’ll ride the Huskies in this one, with no guarantees that I’ll respect myself in the morning.
Northern Illinois at Nebraska, Under 43.5 points
Nebraska looks so much better defensively this year. Yes, I know what kind of numbers Shedeur Sanders and Colorado ended up with this past weekend. But I saw a fast, athletic, aggressive group that generated eight sacks and 11 tackles for loss. They’ve yet to allow 60 yards rushing in a game, and the tackling is greatly improved, particularly open field. The 36 points they gave up to the Buffaloes was partly a byproduct of field position after Husker turnovers. You give the ball away inside your own 30 multiple times, and you’re begging for trouble. The defense is much better than that final score indicates.
Speaking of turnovers, Nebraska now has eight through two games. This may shock you, but that figure leads the country. They haven’t shown they can get out of their own way. Turnovers plagued Jeff Sims in his time at Georgia Tech, and they’re an issue for him so far this year (he has six, which is more than 121 teams). He left Saturday’s game in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury, but all indications are that he’ll start if healthy. Nebraska is 117th nationally in total offense, and 127th in points. The improved defense and total disregard for taking care of the ball are enough to pull the trigger on this Under.
A Couple Others That Didn’t Quite Make the Cut for Best Bets
Embed from Getty ImagesWestern Kentucky (+27.5) at Ohio State: This one almost got bunched in with the other big underdogs. But if there’s a team that will tack on an extra TD just to be sure, it’s the Buckeyes. Plus, I think they still want to see Kyle McCord get some more game reps before they go to Notre Dame next week. It was so tempting because the Hilltoppers can score (46.5 ppg so far). If it moves to 28.5 or even to 28, I might take it. But for now, I’ll leave it off.
Florida State (-28.5) at Boston College: Another team favored to win big the week before a huge game (FSU at Clemson in Week 4). The fact that there are five of these types of games is a pretty good indication of how unappealing this week’s set of games is. You might think this would qualify for the Underdog Extravaganza above. But even applying that logic, BC is so overmatched here. They lost to Northern Illinois in Week 1 and squeaked one out against Holy Cross last Saturday. You’re probably familiar with how FSU’s season has gone so far. The number is just big enough to make me back off FSU, but also not big enough to convince me to take BC. So I’ll walk away, and unless you think Mike Norvell is going to go out and try to prove some sort of point, you probably should too.
Week 2 Best Bets: 3-2 ATS, 0-1 Upset Picks, +0.4 Units
2023 Season Best Bets: 4-4 ATS, 0-2 Upset Picks, -1.2 Units
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
