Four weeks ago, we talked about some things that stood out from the season’s first full slate of games. The overarching theme was “Don’t jump to conclusions after one game”, as tempting as it is. You wait eight months, and it’s natural to have an (over)reaction to what you see. However, we did identify a couple of things that were worth keeping an eye on. Time has a way of shaping perspectives. Let’s see how it’s shaped ours.
If you don’t remember, we went over a handful of hot topics after Week 1. Obviously, there were plenty of reactions to what we saw. There were also a lot of ironclad conclusions drawn. Some were reasonable; most were not.
Now that we’ve had a little more time to digest what these teams have shown us, let’s revisit:
Colorado is for real
We’ll start with what is still the hottest topic in college football, like it or not. It was by far the hottest topic in the immediate aftermath of Week 1. Deion Sanders took his remade roster to TCU as 20.5-point underdogs. They came out with a 45-42 victory in a wildly entertaining game. And boy, oh boy, did people get worked up about that game and what it meant for Coach Prime and the Buffs.
The idea that wins over TCU, Nebraska, and Colorado State showed they were contenders in the PAC-12 was always silly. But when a team with a preseason Win Total of 3.5 starts 3-0, a lot of people make the leap from “better than everybody thought” to “better than everybody”.
Then, a weird thing happened. They got steamrolled by Oregon and lost at home to USC. And a lot of those same people who proclaimed that Colorado might be a nine-win team were now saying things like “Colorado got exposed”. There’s been a fair bit of goal-post-moving going on with regards to what to make of this team.
As for the initial (over)reaction to Colorado being “for real”, whatever that means to you, the answer is “probably not”. They look like a team that’s really talented in some spots and severely lacking in others. For example, their defense is atrocious:
| Per Game | National Rank | |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 184.2 | 114th |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 296.0 | 124th |
| Total Yards Allowed | 475.8 | 126th |
| First Downs Allowed | 24.4 | 125th |
| Points Allowed | 36.2 | 124th |
Luckily, their offense is almost as good as their defense is bad. They probably have three more wins left on the schedule, maybe a fourth. But for all the hype they got after Week 1, they’re maybe the 6th best team in the conference.
South Carolina can’t block anybody
Embed from Getty ImagesThis was a common (over)reaction after allowing nine sacks and sixteen tackles for loss against North Carolina. I said then that it was probably true, and it still looks that way. The Gamecocks have allowed 23 sacks (127th) and 43 TFL (also 127th). They still can’t run the ball, averaging 75.8 yards per game on the ground (126th) and 2.28 yards per carry (129th). They’ve limited the damage somewhat by scheming more quick throws, but there’s a clear limit on how much improvement they can expect in-season. This (over)reaction was warranted. If they miss a bowl game, which is starting to look likely, the offensive line will be the biggest reason why.
Georgia’s game against UT-Martin showed that they’re vulnerable
All right, I’ll meet you guys halfway on this one.
The idea that there was anything to glean from this game was insane. I said it then, and I’m saying it now. Judging Carson Beck, the offense, or the team as a whole, based on this game alone was absurd. Yet a lot of folks did it. Maybe the dumbest (over)reaction of the opening week.
HOWEVER
Enough games have passed, and a trend has emerged. That trend is “Georgia’s slow starts on offense”. A scoreless first quarter against Ball State. They trailed South Carolina (who can’t block anybody) 14-3 at the half. They were tied 7-7 early in the 2nd quarter against UAB after three possessions. Auburn went up 10-0 on them after a quarter, and the game was tied at 20 until Brock Bowers did Brock Bowers things with three minutes left in the game.
The good news for Georgia fans is that the Bulldogs eventually got it rolling. They won those first four games by double digits (three of them by 28 or more). And they were in a similar spot last year at this time. Games against Samford and Kent State looked a lot like those UT-Martin and Ball State games. Then they went to Missouri and were on Upset Alert well into the fourth quarter. Their next eight games? They won by multiple scores.
So thinking that a sluggish start in Week 1 meant they couldn’t compete for a title? Total (over)reaction. Thinking they still have some stuff to work on after four more games with a similar pattern? Not unreasonable.
Florida is doomed
Embed from Getty ImagesJury’s still out on this one. Depending on which week you decided to look back, this one seemed either a) ridiculous or b) spot-on.
Since that opening loss at Utah that exposed some problem areas, it’s been a mixed bag for Florida. They won handily against two opponents that they should have beaten handily. Then, they looked great against Tennessee, racking up 183 yards on the ground in a 29-16 win. They limited penalties (five for 30 yards) and allowed only one sack. On September 29th, this would have looked like a total (over)reaction.
Against Kentucky this past week, they looked like a completely different team, and not in a good way. They were outgained on the ground 329-69 (not so nice, in this particular case), racked up ten penalties for 86 yards, and allowed three sacks and nine TFL. They got manhandled from the start, running up a 23-0 deficit before scoring right before halftime. And suddenly we’re back to square one.
Depending on your expectations, saying they’re doomed is probably an (over)reaction. I still think they can probably get to a bowl game. But unless they find some consistency on offense and play with some discipline, 7-5 is their absolute best-case scenario. But 4-8 wouldn’t shock me either.
There’s still plenty of season left
Can one or more of these teams change whatever narrative surrounds them? Sure. We’re only halfway home. Even though five games provide much more useful context than one, it’s still not nearly as informative as 12. We know more about these teams than we did a month ago, but we all still have plenty to learn before it’s all said and done.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
