It started with a report last week that the NCAA was investigating an alleged sign-stealing operation at Michigan. Since then, additional details and tidbits have been spilling out on a daily basis. And some of those details and tidbits are pretty troubling. What does it mean for Jim Harbaugh? For Michigan? For college football? Buckle up, Wolverine fans. I suspect this will get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
I’ve been a Houston Astros fan since the mid-1980s. Even if you don’t follow baseball, I’m confident that you’re at least peripherally aware that almost four years ago, the Astros were involved in an ugly sign-stealing scandal. What does that have to do with Harbaugh and Michigan? Well, having lived through this as a fan who followed the Astros saga pretty closely, I see some definite parallels. And those parallels aren’t particularly promising.
A brief explainer of what’s been reported so far
If you haven’t been living under a rock or exploring Antarctica for the last week, you’re probably up to date for the most part. If you’re not up to date, let me give you a quick rundown.
Connor Stalions, a 28-year-old Naval Academy graduate and Michigan analyst, was placed on paid leave last Friday. He is alleged to have been the key player in a seemingly elaborate scheme to acquire opponents’ sideline signals. There is mounting evidence that he arranged tickets for “scouts” to attend games involving future opponents and video sideline signals. This matched up with All-22 film that every team has access to, would seemingly give Michigan a good idea of what their opponents were about to do on any given play.
Embed from Getty ImagesHarbaugh has already released a carefully worded statement denying any involvement or knowledge of the sign-stealing efforts that have been alleged. The university has vowed full and complete cooperation with any investigation. Your mileage may vary on how believable either of those two sentences are, but that’s their stance. From their perspective, unless more incriminating details trickle out it looks like it will continue to be business as usual.
So what are these parallels you’re talking about?
Well, three things jumped out at me when the first wave of reports came out: how many coaches acknowledge that sign-stealing is a more prevalent practice than most fans realize, the fact that opponents seemed to know something shady was happening, and how brazen and reckless Michigan seems to have acted in executing this scheme.
Much like the Astros, I have serious doubts that Michigan is the only team that’s breaking sign-stealing rules, in some form or fashion. Certain sign-stealing methods are not only allowed but expected such as deciphering signals in-game. Or anything you can glean from film review. Teams do this, and they know the other teams are trying to do it too. That’s why you see the giant placards with the goofy pictures on it. Or 3 people holding up a large bedsheet on the sideline.
Secondly, this seems to have been a pretty poorly guarded secret. A couple of Big 10 coaches have, under the condition of anonymity, revealed that they knew Michigan had their signals going into the game. Did they know how Michigan got them? No, but they suspected something was amiss. Other coaches have expressed that sign-stealing is just the price of doing business. They just never said it out loud before.
Also like the Astros, the lack of subtlety is breathtaking. Absolutely ZERO effort went into covering anybody’s tracks. From ticket purchases to public Venmo transactions to spending an entire game recording the opposite sideline with a cell phone. The fearlessness exhibited borders on arrogance. Like saying “We know, you know, we know that you know, and also we don’t care that you know”.
How much could they really benefit from sign-stealing?
That’s hard to say. In retrospect, the Astros didn’t seem to benefit much from their sign-stealing exploits in their championship-winning 2017 season. Some individual players did, in terms of home/road splits. But as a team, they were a much better offense on the road, scoring 106 more runs and producing better numbers across the board. Their sign-stealing wasn’t as successful as you’d assume. But how much could a football team benefit from sign-stealing? Can it be quantified?
Well, the first step in trying to answer that is to define when we think the sign-stealing started. All available evidence points to this scheme encompassing the 2021, 2022, and 2023 (so far) seasons. With the caveat that this is pretty anecdotal, let’s compare that against the rest of the Harbaugh era.
| 2015-2020 | 2021-2023 | |
| Record | 49-22 | 33-3 |
| Against the Spread (ATS) | 32-39 | 21-12-3 |
Does this tell us everything? Absolutely not. Does it tell us something? I think it might.
If you think back to the the 2020 season, you may remember that Michigan went 2-4 and Harbaugh was firmly on the hot seat. He accepted a reduced salary for 2021 on a “prove-it” deal in order to stick around. To that point, he was 0-5 against hated rival Ohio State, losing three of those games by double digits. They’ve won the last two by an average of 18.5 points.
49-22 is by no means a poor record. That equates to roughly 8-4 every year. Not elite, clearly, but nothing to be ashamed of either. The poor ATS record, however, usually indicates a team that routinely underachieves. Not always, but more often than not. But the turnaround is pretty drastic, going from Respectable to Juggernaut. That table alone doesn’t prove anything, but it does provide some context to how much the Wolverines could have benefitted.
What, if anything, will happen this year?
Probably not much.
The NCAA is going to (slowly) continue its sign-stealing investigation, and their Committee on Infractions will determine what punishment, if any, needs to be levied. Based on their track record, I’d expect them to adjudicate this right around the time we colonize Mars. Nothing will happen to Harbaugh or Michigan from the NCAA’s end this season, certainly. There’s even a small chance that nothing comes of it, depending on who specifically was recording sidelines, what their affiliation with the university is (or isn’t), and how that falls under the wording of the rule.
Michigan may decide to put Harbaugh on some sort of paid leave or suspension, based on what information they have in regards to his involvement. But that’s unlikely. History has shown that schools won’t do that type of thing unless the information is made public and they start getting blowback (ie. Northwestern and Pat Fitzgerald). So until there’s hard evidence to demonstrate Harbaugh’s culpability that makes its way into the public sphere, they’ll keep chugging along.
The Big Ten and commissioner Tony Petitti are the wild card here. If any discipline were to be handed out between now and the National Championship game, my bet is that it would come from the Big Ten. Petitti has only been on the job since May, and his first real test on the job is a doozy. Given that Michigan is arguably the conference’s best hope at a College Football Playoff (CFP) spot, and the accompanying financial windfall, he might be reluctant to do anything between now and then. Conversely, he does have a responsibility to the other 13 member schools to ensure that the playing fields are level and violations are addressed. It’s going to be a tricky balancing act, and I don’t envy him.
Long-term implications
Embed from Getty ImagesWhat are the chances that this sign-stealing catastrophe ends up costing Harbaugh his job? Impossible to know at this point. They’re not Zero, I can promise you that much. And even if he does survive it, the stink won’t wear off for YEARS, if ever. He could keep his job, stick around through whatever penalties occur, and win the Big Ten with an 11-1 record in 2030. He’d still be known as a cheater. My guess is that he’ll hit the eject button and go to the NFL at some point, and Michigan will be left to deal with any consequences, a la Pete Carroll/USC.
Michigan is already dealing with Level 1 Violations relating to recruiting practices during the COVID-19 shutdown. This certainly won’t help their cause. It’s well within the realm of possibility that they deal with some vacated wins, scholarship reductions, bowl ban(s), etc. It’s pure speculation until all of the facts are known, but they’re likely to feel some pain.
The only implication for anybody outside of Ann Arbor is that this might be the impetus for the NCAA to finally adopt headset communication devices. The NFL has used them since 1994. They’re used by high schools in some parts of the country. There’s a liability aspect to this, with the NCAA being concerned that a communication device may void any manufacturer’s warranty. But enough push-back from member schools might prompt them to change.
As I mentioned at the beginning, this is a situation that is likely to keep getting worse, one small painful pinprick at a time. The NCAA and the Big Ten will dig and dig, and it may be a bit before they reach bottom. Exactly how deep will they have to go?
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
Featured Image: Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images
