Who needs a quarterback? It’s that time of the year when fans get to explore and evaluate the next group of potential starting QB’s in the NFL. This class has a mix of a lot of different styles of quarterbacks to choose between. Some have big arms, some are more mobile, some are NFL-ready, and others need time to develop. Looking through the top options, one thing is clear. There will be at least a couple of top QB’s to come from this class. Let’s take a look at Couture’s top five 2024 QB prospects.
1. USC QB Caleb Williams
Embed from Getty ImagesThis one is pretty easy to not overthink. The 2022 Heisman winner has been slotted to be the #1 overall pick in this draft for well over a year and in a little over two months, all indications are that that will be the result.
If you take even just sixty seconds to watch Caleb Williams play, you can see the upside and ceiling of him as a player. He brings great arm talent and the ability to make every throw. Williams moves well and has no issues throwing on the run. He works well against pressure and maintains his composure and accuracy within the pocket. Overall, he’s an extremely well-rounded prospect. He does most things well and yet there is still room to grow as a player
There aren’t many things to fault Williams with heading into college. With that said, there’s always room for improvement, though most of them are small fixes. His footwork can be inconsistent and working almost exclusively in shotgun will result in some necessary development at the next level.
While Williams isn’t the biggest prospect, his upside remains as high as any QB prospect we’ve seen in years. He comes with very legit top 3 QB potential and a projected floor that makes him the no-brainer first overall pick.
Player Comparison: Williams is a tough comp. Many compare him to Patrick Mahomes and there are certainly similarities in playing style. I think a cross between peak Russel Wilson and current Mahomes best fits him.
Draft Value: 1st Overall Pick
2. UNC QB Drake Maye
Embed from Getty ImagesDrake Maye was on a similar track as Williams heading into the 2023 season. Both players were coming off dominant 2022 seasons and were the projected top two picks in the draft. For Williams, that projection never wavered despite not matching his production from the previous season. For Maye, he had more turnover and it impacted his 2023 performance. After losing his leading pass catcher Josh Downs, his offensive coordinator Phil Longo left as well. New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey came to UNC with a new offense that didn’t fit Maye the same.
While his numbers dropped in 2023, Maye brings the same level of upside that the NFL craves these days. A mobile QB with good athleticism and a big arm. In many ways, he’s almost like a JV version of Caleb Williams and that’s far from an insult. The upside is similar, but Maye is simply less polished and has more to work on to get to their ceiling as a player.
Maye can make any and all throws as a QB, but that at times leads to erratic play and risky decisions. His overall footwork leaves room to be desired, but he also moves well within the pocket. His post-snap processing can improve as well. He has room to grow in all aspects of his game and while that brings risk, it also shows the significant upside he brings to the table as well. If a team believes in their coaches and the ability to develop a QB, taking a shot on Maye could be well worth it
Player Comparison: A slightly smaller Josh Allen. An athletic, big-armed QB that plays a bit out of control.
Draft Value: Top Five Pick
I’m honestly floored that the NFL isn’t more impressed by this. The idea that Drake Maye had a *disappointing season is wild pic.twitter.com/MlCZJAoI3R
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) February 20, 2024
3. LSU QB Jayden Daniels
Embed from Getty ImagesThe 2023 Heisman winner has been without question the biggest rising prospect since the start of the 2023 college season. Once a projected day two or three selection, Jayden Daniels is all but locked into being a top-10 pick. To say the least, he took his game to another level this season. Daniels led the nation in total touchdowns (50), as well as rushing yards for a QB.
As a player, Daniels took major strides as a passer inside and outside the pocket. His decision-making was clean and he was simply able to tear up inferior talent this past season. Daniels also features a solid arm that can throw with accuracy to all three levels but lacks the top-end velocity on short-yardage throws.
As a prospect, he’s a tough grade. Daniels shows the traits to provide a projected solid floor as a QB. I believe he’s a bit “safer” of a prospect than Drake Maye. On the other side, he’s an older prospect that comes with a slim frame. Questions around him include his ability to withstand the impact at the next level and how much more room he has to grow as a player. If you’re a team in the top 10 or even 3-5 picks, the question I’m asking is simple… “What is his ceiling?”. If you believe in it, he’s a worthy selection.
Player comparison: A taller but skinnier Deshaun Watson
Draft Value: Top 10 Pick
For the people that say Jayden Daniels can’t go through his reads or attack the middle of the field – #NFL
— • Colton Edwards • (@cedwardsNFL) February 16, 2024
pic.twitter.com/9NvXUdI1SE
4. Michigan QB JJ McCarthy
Embed from Getty ImagesLet’s start this by making it clear. There’s a tier gap between JJ McCarthy and Jayden Daniels. The Michigan QB led the Wolverines to a National Championship this past season. As a whole, the offense was a run-first scheme that didn’t ask McCarthy to do a lot. That’s led to a lot of mixed reviews on the player himself. On one side, some think that’s his ceiling. A mid-tier QB who can’t do a ton and needs a good scheme to maximize his talent. On the other hand, some believe he’s a hidden gem of untapped potential.
I described Drake Maye as the “JV” version of Caleb Williams and I think McCarthy may be the “freshman” version of him. The tools are there for McCarthy. He’s an underrated runner and has shown the ability to be a dynamic passer. He has good arm strength to fit into tight spaces but could improve with his touch and hitting the over-the-top throw.
Overall, the potential is there. McCarthy has all the attributes that come with a quality NFL starter. The risk comes with those attributes being raw and needing a lot of development. He’ll likely be a first-round pick and possibly top fifteen. Any team taking him should allow him to develop, ideally sitting his first season. If he can take steps as a player, the long-term potential could be there.
Player comparison: A blend of Zach Wilson and Russel Wilson. The wide range of potential outcomes fits those two players as well.
Draft Value: Late first-round pick
5. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr
Embed from Getty ImagesTake a moment and watch some Michael Penix Jr film. You’ll almost certainly come away being pretty impressed by him. The lefty showed in 2023 that he has a lot to like as a passer. He showed impressive accuracy as a passer, especially with the deep ball. He moves well within the pocket and has good post-snap recognition. Penix understands the position. He’s smart and can lead an offense without worrying about dumb mistakes.
Admittedly, he sounds like he should be higher on this list and I get that. The downside for Penix comes with believing in his future. He’ll be a 24-year-old rookie who comes with an extensive injury history, including two ACL tears. While he’s certainly not immobile, he’s not someone that you’d be designer runs for either. His release is on the slower side and while he has a strong arm, he similarly lacks the touch that McCarthy does as well.
Looking through all of that, is he worth the shot? I believe he has a solid floor. I think he can be a solid starter, but I struggle to see him having an elite upside. A team on day two could like him enough to take him early in the day in the hopes he can maximize his talents.
Player comparison: A lefty 2022 + 2023 version of Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa
Draft Value: Mid second-round pick
🔦 Michael Penix Jr. (QB #Washington)
— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) February 20, 2024
✅ Accuracy/Anticipation
✅ Processing/Progressions
✅ Toughness
❌ Injury/Age
❌ Out of Structure
Position Rank: 5
Grade: Round 2
Big Board: 42
Pro Comp: Tua Tagovailoa
Team Fit: #Raiders, #Seahawks, #Vikingspic.twitter.com/85eEnXrdSP
Review
The top five QB’s slide into three tiers. I believe Caleb Williams comfortably sits atop the mountain. He’s as complete of a prospect as you can wish for when looking for a QB in the draft. Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels sit in tier two. I believe Maye is the home run swing. He comes with legit top-five QB potential but is also a bit of a risk. Daniels is a safer pick but I also think he has a lower ceiling than Maye. JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr round out tier three and they run similarly to Maye and Daniels. McCarthy has the raw tools that make me believe his ceiling is higher than Penix’s. At the same time, Penix is a more polished prospect and has a higher floor.
Ultimately, it’s what each team would prefer. Though the end goal is to find the franchise guy and that’s why Maye and McCarthy lead their tiers. Believe in the upside and take the shot.
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Featured Image: Getty Images/Grant Halverson
