NASCAR is headed to Richmond, Virginia for the Toyota Owners 400! The first of two races at Richmond Raceway takes place on Easter Weekend on Sunday night and we’re pumped to bring our picks to you. Last week, no winners to report for nor Chris or I. But I am very proud of my guy in the #48 Alex Bowman putting on a show. Like I said he would. I hope you all bet that top-five finish or put him in your NASCAR fantasy lineups. But we have nothing short of an interesting short track coming our way in just a few days.
Last year, this track saw the #5 of Kyle Larson and the #17 of Chris Buescher take home victories. And I assure you, they’ll be favorites again. But Chris and I always try to bring you some perspective with these articles, so let’s kick this off. Here are the drivers we’re looking at for the Toyota Owners 400.
Chris’s Picks: #5 Kyle Larson (+900) and #12 Ryan Blaney (+1500)
Embed from Getty ImagesIt was a quiet day for Kyle and his team at COTA last weekend. He was running in the top ten before falling victim to Christopher Bell’s race back to the front of the field and just couldn’t recover. Plus if you want a statistical reason to take Kyle well in six career starts at Richmond with HMS. Kyle won once last spring but has never finished outside the top twenty.
Ryan didn’t have a super impressive weekend at COTA either. However, it was impressive for me because Ryan isn’t known as a great road racer. He and his team worked all day and almost grabbed a top-ten finish. Now if you look at the numbers for Ryan at Richmond they are not very kind. What you will notice though is the better he qualifies the better off he finishes typically. So I think we’ll be able to tell early on in the weekend how Ryan is going to do.
Kaleb’s Picks: #8 Kyle Busch (+1500) and #19 Martin Truex Jr (+600)
Embed from Getty ImagesI know you all saw Rowdy get in Christopher Bell’s face after COTA. And I know you all read that I had him on my list in my new series “Three Up, Three Down”. Following every race from here on out I’ll give guys trending up and down and why. And Busch found himself there with his first T-10 since the photo finish at Atlanta. Richmond is one of Busch’s best tracks. Since 2018 he’s only finished below the T-10 once with two wins, and several top fives. He finished third here in the fall at the Cook Out 400. Kyle Busch is overdue for a win and this is the spot to do it.
And in my other spot, another grizzled veteran. Martin Truex Jr in the #19 has yet to show out since the post-season collapse in 2023. Through 2024 he’s got one top five getting runner-up at Bristol and three other top fives. He’s another elite driver just itching to run at the front to bring it home. Richmond has been kind to Truex, his last win coming in 2021. He’s brought home a P7 twice and one P11 in the next-gen car. Richmond is just the kind of track that an old-school veteran could succeed at. Between him and the #11 car, Joe Gibbs Racing is looking good. But let me gamble on the #19 this go around.
Chris’s Fade: #45 Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Embed from Getty ImagesThis may seem a bit like a surprise considering the speed that the Toyota camp as a whole has shown early on this season. Could Tyler easily show up this weekend and have the best cars he’s ever had at Richmond and blow the field out of the water? He could but in seven career Richmond Cup Series starts Tyler has a best finish of eleventh. Also, it wasn’t because the car wasn’t “working” for whatever reason all weekend either because in both of the Richmond races last year he qualified on the pole for one race and fifth for the other. So, the speed was in the car. History finds a way to repeat itself and more often than not in a NASCAR race.
Kaleb’s Fade: #22 Joey Logano (+2200)
Embed from Getty ImagesOne of the sneaky storylines of 2024 is Joey Logano and his struggles thus far. In the point standings, the two-time Cup Series champion is behind the 42, and 34, and is one point above the 7. It’s inexcusable for a guy of Logano’s caliber in a car provided by the best Ford team in the business. Ford as a manufacturer has struggled out the gate besides Chris’s #1 ranked #12 Ryan Blaney and #17 Chris Buescher. Logano has been more than solid at Richmond in his career, but he hasn’t posted a top-five since 2021. I’ll maintain a wait-and-see approach with the 22 and wait for Ford to get it together.
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