Well, it was certainly a show at the Monster Mile last weekend. But it’s time for the Advent Health 400 in Kansas! Last year, we saw a similar finish to last week’s race. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson racing for the win. It was an epic finish, that saw Larson get loose and bump the wall giving Hamlin his first victory on the season.
Larson and Hamlin have both notched wins already this season. The #5 team dominated at Las Vegas while Hamlin has won three races already at Bristol, Richmond, and last week at Dover. But maybe we can see some others get a shot at it. So far on the season, only Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have won at non-drafting tracks. Ford doesn’t have a single win this year. But let’s see if they can turn it around at the 1.5-mile-long race in Kansas. Here’s who Chris and I are watching out for this weekend at the Advent Health 400!
Chris’s Picks: #45 Tyler Reddick (+600) & #9 Chase Elliott (+900)
Embed from Getty ImagesWhy not take two heavy favorites this week right? Sadly if you are looking to make money though, betting on a favorite won’t net you the most in profit but a win is a win in my books. Anyways let’s talk really quick about Tyler Reddick. It’s kind of obvious why I picked him. He won in the fall here, and prior to that his car number had visited victory lane twice in Kansas. Plus he’s yet to finish outside the top ten at Kansas with this team. 23XI Racing knows how to win at Kansas, and having a driver like Tyler makes it that much easier.
Now as for Chase Elliott, I know he is good at Kansas but I think his odds should be a bit lower honestly. He hasn’t won here since 2018 in the last generation of Cup cars. I will say though in the last three races at Kansas in which Chase was able to participate his worst finish is 11th. I mentioned in this weeks edition of my power rankings Final Lap. With JGR,23XI, and HMS winning everything minus Atlanta I don’t see anything changing this weekend. The question is though can Chase grab win number two on the season or will it be one of his teammates?
Kaleb’s Picks: #23 Bubba Wallace (+1500) & #1 Ross Chastain (+2200)
Embed from Getty ImagesBubba Wallace has had a great season so far. He’s got three top-fives and six top-15s. It’s not just superspeedway performances either. He’s posted many career bests at short and intermediate tracks this season. He has two career wins in the Cup Series, one at Kansas. In the 2022 fall race, he filled in for the #45 car. In the spring of 2023, he finished fourth on this track. I like his odds here, and Wallace will be one to watch.
Ross Chastain is due for a showing. And Kansas could be just the place to do it. He hasn’t finished outside the top 15 at this track since 2019. He posted a top-five in the spring along with Wallace. What made the headlines at this race though was him punching rookie Noah Gragson in the face. But he’s a solid driver here, he’s proven it, and he’s due for a win. At +2200 he’s a solid choice if you’re feeling lucky.
Chris’s Fade: #12 Ryan Blaney (+2200)
Embed from Getty ImagesRyan had a good solid day at Dover finishing seventh. However, hold on tight Blaney fans. Kansas hasn’t been particularly great to Ryan in his cup series career. In his eighteen career starts, his best finish is third. That coming back in 2017 when he drove for the Wood Brothers. That sounds great but in his twelve career starts at Kansas since taking over the number twelve car his best finish is seventh. If he does that this weekend I’m sure his team and he will be happy. However I don’t like his chances of contending for a win. So, I’m going to stay away from the reigning champion this weekend.
Kaleb’s Fade: #20 Christopher Bell (+800)
Embed from Getty ImagesChristopher Bell has had a BRUTAL month of April. You can read more about that in my “Three Up, Three Down” this week. A high finish of P17 is not what you want to report in four weeks. I don’t like the vibes out of this #20 team after winning at Phoenix, and they have to show me before I put them with the likes of Hamlin, Truex, Elliott, Larson, Byron, and Reddick at the top of the list. That being said, with my luck, you can probably expect him to join Kyle Busch and Joey Logano in the group of drivers that I faded that went on to get back on track. I have a habit of doing that. Nevertheless, Bell has to prove himself once again, and I think he will eventually. But it might not be at Kansas if they don’t rip off this bandaid.
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