Group of death of this season’s Champions League group stage, no problem. The best team from the Netherlands, no problem. Highest-paid manager in the world, no problem. Having to face the best player in the world in four separate games…no problem.
The road to the Champions League final has been as difficult as it’s been surprising for Borussia Dortmund. Their reward for a nine-month journey is Real Madrid, 14-time Champions League winners.
The famous Nike slogan for Caitlin Clark is “This was never a long shot,”. For BVB, this UCL run is the longest of long shots. After their first group game, which was a loss to PSG, BVB was +7625 to win the UCL.
For context, Real Madrid were +750 to win the UCL. The matchup on Saturday isn’t David versus Goliath, it’s David wearing a blindfold against Goliath and his man-child son Goliath Junior.
Real Madrid’s Aura
Fate, destiny, aura. Whatever you call it, Real Madrid has a way of finding a way to win big Champions League games. They did it in the semi-finals against Bayern Munich after they were down a goal in the 87th minute. Two goals and four minutes later, Real Madrid were through to their second final in three seasons.
There is a belief among the players who wear that famous white shirt that they are never out of a game. It helps when you have a world-class manager and a wage bill of $301 million. The New York Yankees have a payroll of $305 million.
Real Madrid lost Ballon D’or winner Karim Benzema last summer. Instead of replacing him with a world-class striker, they replaced him with former Stoke City striker Joselu. Joselu is on loan at Madrid, is 34, and scored those two goals against Bayern Munich. Aura.
Players to Watch
All of them. Just kidding. Kind of. Real Madrid has talent at every position, so to matter enough in this team to make my, “players to watch,” is a big accomplishment.
Vinicius Junior: Forward
Vini Jr has achieved his third straight season with 30 goal contributions. He is only 23 years old. The Brazilian is fast, ferocious, and feisty when he gets the ball. He takes opposing full-backs on with abandonment and zero fear.
He embarrassed Bayern Munich right-back Joshua Kimich in the second leg of the semi-final. Vini Jr had seven successful dribbles, created two chances, and won nine duels. Vini Jr is a big game player and Real Madrid will need him to continue this.
Antonio Rudiger: Defender
In the past two rounds, the German center-back has faced the highest scorer in the Bundesliga and the Premier League. He held them to zero goals in open play.
Antonio Rudiger reminds me a lot of Miami Heat superstar Jimmy Butler. Rudiger, like Butler, has supreme confidence when facing the best of the best. I don’t think Rudiger just thinks he’s the best defender in the world, I think he believes he is the best player in the world.
His defending has contributed to Real conceding 11 fewer goals than the next-best defense in La Liga. Rudiger’s speed and power are that of a striker. Combine that with incredible defensive instinct and BVB will find scoring hard.
Thibaut Courtois: Goalie
In August, Thibaut Courtois tore his ACL in his left knee. Then, BAM, in March he tore his meniscus in his right knee.
Despite these setbacks, Courtois recently started four of the last five La Liga matches. He’s kept a clean sheet in all four games. In his absence, Andriy Lunin has performed admirably, making clutch saves in Champions League games.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti was adamant that Lunin would start in the semi-finals. However, for the final Ancelotti has sung a different tune.
Courtois single-handedly won them the Champions League title two years ago. He is the best goalie in the world. How he will fare in a big game coming off those two major injuries will be key to Real Madrid hoisting the trophy with the big ears.
BVB=Hope
In the age of state-owned football clubs, expensive players, and elite managers, Dortmund is a breath of fresh air. Up until this year, the Bundesliga has been won by the same team 11 years in a row. Man City have won the Prem four years on the bounce. Since 2010, only six teams have won the Champions League.
Dortmund spent $134 million on their squad, about a third compared to Madrid. This culminated in a disappointing league season in which they finished fifth.
After they beat PSG 1-0 in the second leg of the semis, they lost 3-0 to Mainz in the league. They’ve been Jekyll and Hyde in terms of form this season between the league and UCL. As mentioned, BVB is a huge underdog, but their manager is a fan, their fans are amazing, and they have hope.
Players To Watch
BVB has some amazing players. They’re underdogs, but not under puppies. They have experienced players who’ve played in World Cup Finals, and big European games. BVB will lean on this experience against Madrid.
Mats Hummels: Defender
It starts and ends with Mats Hummels for Dortmund. He is integral to their stingy defense in big games. Hummels is an aerial threat from corners. Having played in the World Cup final ten years ago, Hummels won’t be phased by this big occasion.
Despite his age (35) Hummels still has enough mobility to get his head on headers, and his feet on loose balls. BVB will most likely not go at Real Madrid, rather they will sit back and use their pacey wingers to get in behind.
Hummels is also an incredible passer. Any YouTube compilation of his passing is worth a watch. Hummels will look to break the lines and release the attackers.
Gregor Kobel: Goalie
Yes, Kobel is worth his place on this list. His nerd numbers are insane. He ranks in the 96th percentile in save percentage (78.4%) amongst goalies playing in Europe. Kobel is in the 99th percentile for PSxG-GA(+0.29), which calculates how likely a goalie is to save a shot minus the average amount of goals allowed. Any positive number is insane.
Kobel has made some big saves and by most metrics is a top-five goalie in the world. He turns a 2-1 loss into a 1-0 win. When people were mocking a 4-1 BVB loss, he saved them from an 8-1 embarrassment. This is the biggest game in his life…so far. Kobel can single-handedly win them this game.
Niclas Fullkrug: Striker
After being a second-division striker most of his career, Niclas Fullkrug exploded at age 29 and made the German World Cup squad in 2022. Fullkrug has excelled in the Champions League’s latter stages. He scored in the quarter-final and semi-final.
Fullkrug is 6’2″ and thick. His aerial presence gives BVB another option on corners and set pieces. The German has a career-high ten assists in all competitions this season. Fulkrug can hold play up and dish it off to Dortmund’s wingers in attack. He’s selfless, tracking back in defense and defending set-pieces and corners.
Similar to Kobel, Fullkrug is playing the biggest game of his life. Also, just like Kobel, Fullkrug can win BVB in this final.
My Favorite Champions League Subplots
There are so many…too many games within this game. Therefore it was impossible to list them all, so to narrow it down to only three wasn’t easy.
Jude is Back!
Jude Bellingham left Borussia Dortmund last summer (as expected) for Real Madrid for €103 million. After taking La Liga by storm, Bellingham won the Player of the Season award. He scored three goals in two league games against Barcelona.
Bellingham is 20 years old. Nothing seems to phase him. He did everything for Dortmund. Look no further than them finishing fifth this season with eight fewer points in the league than last season.
Will Bellingham look to do too much against his old side? Unlikely. However, when Bellingham left. there were reports that not everyone in that locker room loved Bellingham. Therefore, it should be interesting to see how the players go at Bellingham during the game and if the reported animosity manifests on the pitch.
Edin Terzic Redemption Arc
One of the reasons I didn’t believe BVB would beat PSG in the semis was their manager, Edin Terzic. There aren’t a lot of YouTube breakdowns of his tactics. Few discuss his tactical system. Dortmund drew on the final day of the Bundesliga season in 2023 to lose the title. They’ve looked inconsistent all season.
Yet, Terzic has got Dortmund to play at their best when it matters most. This season they’ve beaten: AC Milan, Newcastle United (2x), Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, PSV, and PSG (2x).
There are a lot of big manager openings in Europe this summer, and yet Terzic isn’t linked with any of them. However, Terzic is a BVB fan and it would be hard for him to leave the club.
Kroos and Reus Send Offs
Two of Germany’s most lovable players of the last decade are playing their last games for their club. In Toni Kroos’ case, he is retiring after the European Championship. Marco Reus isn’t retiring but is leaving BVB after 12 seasons of service and countless rejected offers from bigger clubs.
Kroos has won everything at Real Madrid and has been there for ten years. He has been superb this season and is retiring without looking like he’s diminished. Kroos will likely play a part in the control of the game whether it be starting or coming off the bench.
Marco Reus is a two-time German male player of the year (one more than Kroos). He has won two German cups. Reus has never won a league title or UCL. His loyalty to BVB is something every fan appreciates in the era of big-wage leagues attracting the best players. Reus will (most likely) come off the bench and look to make an impact.
Prediction
This game will be decided on the wings. Both teams possess great wingers who will attack the opposing full-backs. Real Madrid have the better wingers. They also have better full-backs. Yet, finals are not won on paper.
Real Madrid were in this same position in 2022 ahead of a final. They return eight of eleven of the players who started that game(David Alaba is out with an injury). Real Madrid should win this final, but PSG should have beaten Dortmund.
An early goal will go a long way to making the final more open of a game and exciting. However, finals are usually grudge matches that favor the pragmatist.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-0 BVB
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