I don’t know how exactly it happened, but we’re well into the home stretch of the 2024 college football regular season. After eight straight weeks of edge of your action including two SEC kaiju battles and the wildest blood week in years, the dog days of autumn appear to be upon us.
If there ever was a moment for college football to take a breather, it would be now. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release its first rankings list of the season on November 5. With over two-thirds of the games played, the crystal ball is slowly becoming more clear. If the season ended now, who would make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff?
College Football #1 Oregon (8-0, B10: 5-0)
Well, well, well. Look who decided to show up. After six weeks of the Ducks playing with their food, Oregon has finally put the hammer down.
While the Ohio State game ended somewhat controversially, bringing along with it possibly the fastest loophole closure in the history of the sport, Oregon has launched into the stratosphere in recent weeks. They annihilated a then #20 Illinois 38-9 and look poised to do the same in their final four games.
At this point, the Ducks control their own destiny and look poised to fly into the Big Ten championship game and the College Football Playoff with ease.
#2 Georgia (6-1, SEC: 4-1)
It is clear that this Georgia team is not where we thought they’d be. The offense is good, but not great and the defense looks mortal for the first time in a while. Outside of dominant wins against #11 Clemson and a then top-ranked Texas, the Dawgs haven’t played to the standard we expect of them.
Yet here they are.
While they aren’t atop the SEC standings, they still look like the best team in the conference. Their remaining schedule isn’t easy by any stretch. An away day at Ole Miss is immediately followed by a major rivalry matchup against Tennessee. However, this team is built for December and January football. If they can make it to Atlanta, it’s hard to see them missing out on a first-round bye.
#3 Miami (8-0, ACC: 4-0)
Miami looked unstoppable for the first few weeks. The Canes destroyed Florida at the Swamp then went on a tear through the rest of their non-conference schedule, dropping 50+ points in three consecutive games.
Outside of their game a Florida State team in complete freefall, Miami has always seemed to be within a hairsbreadth of disaster against ACC opponents. While the remainder of their schedule looks relatively straightforward, if the Canes struggle to find lucky horseshoes, their grasp on an automatic qualifier slot could rapidly slip away.
#4 BYU (8-0, B12: 5-0)
While the Big 12 is still wide open, BYU has an air of confidence about them that’s hard to deny. The Cougars have dominated the majority of their opponents, including going from down 6-0 to leading 31-6 in just 6:57 of game time against then #13 Kansas State.
The final four games of the season should be relatively easy for the Cougs. While Utah and Arizona State could pose some challenges, BYU should be able to match into Dallas unscathed.
#5 Penn State (7-0, B10: 4-0)
Penn State is what Iowa dreams they could be: boring, uninspiring, but incredibly efficient. Even though they are still entirely uninteresting on the field, the Nittany Lions are winning football games and, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
While a loss against Ohio State would likely end their chances of a Big Ten title shot, barring a total collapse in the final five games, Penn State is all but guaranteed a playoff bid.
#6 Texas (7-1, SEC: 3-1)
The Longhorns’ quarterback situation was once an unwanted distraction. Now, it is a grave concern. While Ewers stayed in the game against Vanderbilt after throwing two picks, a precedent was set against Georgia: Arch Manning will be up in the bullpen at all times from here on out.
Texas will be idle this week before jumping headlong into their final four games against Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, and A&M. In all likelihood, Texas will easily make the Playoff. However, even if they head into Kyle Field 10-1, if some out-of-town results fall a certain way, the SEC’s newest, most heated rivalry game could provide some serious playoff drama.
#7 Ohio State (6-1, B10: 3-1)
The Buckeyes built the best roster money could buy. 16-0 was guaranteed. Not only would they beat Michigan, but they would smash through to victory in the Playoff too. Nine weeks later and we’re all still waiting for the prophesied domination to come to pass.
It’s not that Ohio State is bad. Far from it. They are the most talented team in the country and only lost to Oregon due to a rules loophole and poor clock management. But focus for a moment on the last part of that sentence. “Poor clock management.” At some point, it can’t be the roster.
In Ohio State’s case, it isn’t.
If the Buckeyes can’t pull out a road win against Penn State, their chances of a Big Ten championship are finished and what was once a guaranteed Playoff spot is in serious jeopardy. Is it a new dawn or will Day break?
#8 Notre Dame (7-1)
Many have wondered what it would take for Notre Dame to be excluded from the Playoff. Now, the answer seems relatively clear: 10-2 is the absolute minimum for the Irish.
While we may all remember the NIU Huskies’ valiant plundering of Notre Dame gold earlier this year, the Committee has consistently cared more about wins than losses. Thanks to Texas A&M, the Fighting Irish are well on their way to a playoff bid.
That being said, a loss to any of their remaining opponents save USC could require the last rights to be read on Notre Dame’s hopes of a College Football Playoff bid.
#9 Texas A&M (7-1, SEC: 5-0)
After their loss to Notre Dame, fans of the Fightin’ Texas Aggies were rightfully worried about a rocky transition away from the Jimbo Fisher. Instead, Mike Elko appears to have found lightning in a bottle, bowling over Missouri and LSU and going undefeated through his first five SEC contests.
While South Carolina poses a threat and the stakes of the renewed Lone Star Showdown continue to grow week by week, the folks in Aggieland have reason to be excited.
#10 Indiana (8-0, B10: 5-0)
Indiana is legit. That’s it. That’s the overview.
I feel like a hypocrite having them this low for a multitude of reasons. If you replaced the cream and crimson with scarlet and grey or maize and blue, where would Indiana’s 8-0 record put them? It’s probably a lot higher than the 10 seed.
Everyone appears to have realized that waiting for the Hoosiers to fall flat on their face this season is a fruitless endeavor. Curt Cignetti wins football games. Thanks to him, Indiana are winning football games.
#11 Clemson (6-1, ACC: 5-0)
Clemson looked dead in the water after week one. What a difference a few weeks makes. With Miami constantly on fraud watch, the Tigers have a real shot at hurdling Miami should the other shoe finally drop. Their path to the ACC championship game isn’t a cakewalk. The Tigers still face a currently undefeated Pitt and a scrappy South Carolina to round out the schedule. However, if Clemson can finish the regular season 11-1 or even 10-2, Tiger fans should start figuring out travel plans for mid-December.
#12 Boise State (6-1, MWC: 3-0)
The Broncos got hot at the perfect time. With Heisman favorite Ashton Jeanty putting up insane numbers on the blue turf, the G5 playoff spot is Boise State’s to lose. They have the best resume of all G5 teams with an agonizingly close loss to #1 Oregon back in week two. If the Broncos run the table and wins the MWC championship, the 12 seed is theirs for the taking.
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